London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Nov 05, 2026

Recession looms as UK economy starts to shrink

Recession looms as UK economy starts to shrink

The UK economy shrank between July and September as the country heads into what is expected to be the longest recession on record.

The economy contracted by 0.2% during the three months as soaring prices hit businesses and households.

A country is in recession when its economy shrinks for two three-month periods in a row. The UK is expected to be in one by the end of the year.

The Bank of England has forecast a "very challenging" two-year recession.

A recession has been widely expected in the UK due to the prices of goods such as food, fuel and energy soaring, which is down to several factors, including the war in Ukraine.

Higher prices for goods has led to many households facing hardship and cutting back on spending, which has started to drag on the economy.

When a country is in recession, it's a sign that its economy is doing badly.

During recessions, companies typically make less money and the number of people unemployed rises. Graduates and school leavers also find it harder to get their first job.

This means the government receives less money in tax to use on public services such as health and education.

The Bank of England expects the UK recession to be the longest since records began in the 1920s and said unemployment will almost double.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said he would try to make any recession "shallower and quicker" than predicted.

But he has warned of "eye-watering" decisions needed on public spending and taxation to "restore confidence and economic stability".

Mr Hunt said he was "under no illusion that there is a tough road ahead".

He is set to unveil his tax and spending plans next week in the Autumn Statement, which comes as households are being squeezed by the worst cost-of-living crisis since the 1950s.


'World Cup and Christmas key'


The brewing sector is under "extreme pressure", says Sam Burrows

Sam Burrows, managing director of Bristol Beer Factory, told the BBC he has been weighing up how much of his soaring business costs can be passed on to customers in recent months.

"We can't price consumers out. We need people in pubs eating, drinking and enjoying the hospitality sector, so it's a balancing act for me," he said.

Mr Burrows said he wanted to invest and expand his business but was having to factor in the current economic climate.

However, he said the World Cup and Christmas were coming at the right time.

"A bit of national pride and some positive energy with a good performance in the World Cup, Christmas spending, it's all going to help hospitality," he added.

Countries all around the world are experiencing high price rises, but the UK economy is performing the worst compared to other major nations, and is smaller than it was before the Covid pandemic.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS), which published the economic growth figures, said UK business investment had dropped in the three months to September and also remained below its pre-pandemic levels.

The performance of the economy is measured by the value of all the goods and services produced by the UK. This number is known as the gross domestic product (GDP).

The fall in GDP in the three months to September was driven by a decline in manufacturing, which was seen "across most industries", the ONS said.

The ONS publishes its estimate of GDP and does sometimes revise it upwards or downwards. For example, it initially estimated that the economy shrank by 0.3% in August, but later revised that and said it shrank by 0.1%.


Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the ONS, said customer-facing industries also "fared badly", with shops hard hit as the squeeze on household budgets meant people were spending less.

According to Mr Morgan, the biggest concerns businesses said they were now facing were the rising price of raw materials and higher energy costs.

He said some firms had taken action to reduce costs by being "far more diligent", switching to more energy-efficient equipment, and changing supplier.

Mr Morgan said the additional bank holiday for Queen Elizabeth II's funeral played a part in the economy's poor performance in September as some businesses closed or had shorter opening times. The economy shrank by 0.6% alone in September.

Rachel Reeves, Labour's shadow chancellor, said the latest economic figures were "another page of failure in the Tories' record on growth".

"Britain's unique exposure to economic shocks has been down to a Conservative-led decade of weak growth, low productivity and underinvestment and widening inequality," she added.

Martin McTague, chairman of the Federation of Small Businesses, called the latest economic figures "dreadful news" for firms that were already under pressure.

"Lower levels of reserves and resources mean they are more vulnerable to downturns, and at a time when confidence is deteriorating in both consumers and businesses, the outlook for the UK economy is now very bleak indeed," he said.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
United Kingdom and Caribbean Nations Agree to Establish Formal Diplomatic Dialogue Following Reparations Discussions
Cambridge University Appoints Senior Barrister to Lead Independent Review into Death of Academic Jason Arday
Historic Hastings Castle and Kent Dickens Chalet Added to National Heritage at Risk Register Amid Deterioration Concerns
Incoming British Ambassador to Japan Calls for Deepened Bilateral Cooperation on Artificial Intelligence and Semiconductors
Milburn Review Urges Employment Revolution to Unlock Workforce Opportunities for Young Disabled Britons
British Healthcare Worker Evacuated from Democratic Republic of Congo to United Kingdom Following Ebola Exposure
United Nations Refugee Agency Criticises Government Proposal for Thirty-Year Earned Settlement Pathways for Asylum Seekers
Parliamentary Inquiry Warns United Kingdom Remains Exposed to Chinese Critical Mineral Dependencies
Bank of England Prepares Interest Rate Decision as Inflation Pressures Prompt Expectation of Four Percent Benchmark
Department for Business and Trade Overhauls Protection Standards for Digital Animation and Moving Image Files
Intellectual Property Office Introduces Thirty-Month Grace Period for International Product Launches
Intellectual Property Office Targets Anti-Competitive Filings With New Powers to Verify Novelty Before Registration
Creative Industries Minister Ian Murray Praises Regulatory Reforms to Safeguard Small Businesses and Micro-Enterprises
Government Unveils Major Design Framework Overhaul to Protect British Creators and Boost Economy
Global Asset Management Reports Surge in British Dividend Payouts Driven by Strong Financial and Mining Sectors
HM Treasury Confirms Strongest Group of Seven Growth Figures as Fiscal Consolidation Plans Progress
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Approves Construction of New North Sea Offshore Wind Hub
Northern Ireland Executive Finalizes Public Sector Pay Agreements Following Months of Inter-Agency Negotiations
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan Secures Cross-Party Support for Regional Clean Energy Infrastructure Bill
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Formal Investigation Into Dominant Artificial Intelligence Cloud Partnerships
United Kingdom Foreign Secretary David Lammy Concludes High-Level Diplomatic Mission to Washington and Ottawa
Scottish Government Announces Emergency Housing Investment Package to Address Escalating Urban Homelessness
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Finalizes Corporate Tax Adjustments Ahead of Upcoming Business Investment Summit
National Health Service England Unveils Emergency Winter Resilience Plan to Combat Projected A&E Overcrowding
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Votes to Hold Base Interest Rate Steady at Four Point Seven5 Per Cent
UK Gross Domestic Product Expands by Zero Point Four Per Cent in Third Quarter Driven by Resilient Services Growth
Northern Ireland Executive Agrees on Multi-Year Public Sector Pay Restructuring Framework at Stormont
Department for Transport Confirms Acceleration of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Rollout Along Strategic Motorways
Welsh Government Announces Emergency Funding Package to Support Agricultural Sector Facing Severe Weather Impacts
High Court Rules in Favor of Environmental Coalition Over Government Carbon Reduction Plan Deficiencies
Office for National Statistics Reports Stable Retail Sales Growth Supported by Strong Digital Commerce Volumes
Scottish First Minister John Swinney Secures Cross-Party Support for Renewable Energy Export Expansion
National Health Service Digital Reports Major Breakthrough in Reducing Elective Waiting Lists Across England
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Outlines Infrastructure Spending Reforms to Boost Regional Economic Growth Across Northern England
Bank of England Holds Baseline Interest Rate at Five Percent Amid Persistent Core Inflation Pressures
House of Lords Advances Representation of the People Bill to Modernize Electoral Law Ahead of General Election
Financial Markets and Private Equity Assess Tax and Corporate Realignment Following Recent Chancellor Budget Adjustments
Justice Committee Warns Legal Aid Is a Service in Managed Decline Due to Inadequate Government Funding Responses
Royal Navy Intercepts Russian Intelligence Vessel and Warships Across Intensive North Sea Operations
Business and Trade Committee Slams Government Policy on China as Fragmented and Lacking Strategic Direction
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood Softens Immigration Plans Following Intensive Cabinet Backlash Over Settlement Timelines
Automotive Industry Data Reveals Continued Acceleration in Battery Electric Vehicle Registrations Across British Dealerships
High Court of England and Wales Rules on Landmark Legal Challenge Regarding Local Government Housing Mandates
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Approves Expanded Offshore Wind Infrastructure Along Scottish Coastline
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Broad Investigation Into Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure and Cloud Partnerships
United Kingdom and European Union Launch High-Level Preparations for Bilateral Defense and Security Summit in Brussels
National Health Service England Unveils Emergency Workforce Reforms to Alleviate Winter Accident and Emergency Pressures
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Finalizes Autumn Budget Adjustments to Meet Fiscal Rules and Fund Public Services
Bank of England Prepares for Interest Rate Decision Amid Rising Bond Yields and Inflationary Pressures
House of Lords Begins Detailed Legislative Scrutiny of Representation of the People Bill and Cyber Security Laws
×