London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Apr 13, 2026

Recession isn't 'inevitable' but inflation remains 'unacceptably high'

Recession isn't 'inevitable' but inflation remains 'unacceptably high'

A coming recession is not "at all inevitable" as the Federal Reserve takes aggressive actions to address inflation, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday

A recession is not "at all inevitable" as the Federal Reserve takes increasingly aggressive action to address sharply rising inflation, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday.

"I expect the economy to slow," Yellen told "This Week" anchor George Stephanopoulos. "It's been growing at a very rapid rate, as the economy, as the labor market, has recovered and we have reached full employment. It's natural now that we expect a transition to steady and stable growth, but I don't think a recession is at all inevitable."

"Clearly, inflation is unacceptably high," Yellen continued. "It's President [Joe] Biden's top priority to bring it down. And [Fed] Chair [Jerome] Powell has said that his goal is to bring inflation down while maintaining a strong labor market. That's going to take skill and luck, but I believe it's possible."

The current inflation rate, year-over-year, is at a 40-year high of 8.6%, according to the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

On Wednesday, in an effort to cool those rising costs, the Fed increased interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point -- marking the largest rate increase since 1994. A higher interest rate increases borrowing costs for consumers and companies, potentially slowing inflation by decreasing demand.

"You say it's not inevitable, but I guess the question is: Is it likely?" Stephanopoulos pressed Yellen, citing data on consumer pull-back and slowing movement in the job market and noting that she, Biden and Powell were all wrong about inflation's lasting impact last year.

"Consumer spending remains very strong. There's month-to-month volatility, but overall spending is strong, although patterns of spending are changing and higher food and energy prices are certainly affecting consumers," Yellen said.

"But bank balances are high," she continued. "It's clear that most consumers, even lower-income households, continue to have buffer stocks of savings that will enable them to maintain spending. So I don't see a drop-off in consumer spending as a likely cause of the recession in the months ahead. And the labor market is very strong, arguably the strongest of the post-war period."

Yellen attributed inflation partly to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, saying the conflict had increased global prices on energy and food.

"It's important to recognize that the United States is certainly not the only advanced economy suffering from high inflation," Yellen said. "We see it in the U.K., we see it in France, Germany, Italy; and the causes of it are global, not local."

She said "energy prices spillover is really half of inflation," but that Biden has been working to keep oil prices from going even higher.

Gas prices remain at record highs after months of increases. The current national average is about $4.98 per gallon.

Yellen cited Biden's "historic" release of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve over six months in an effort to reduce prices -- though costs continue to climb.

"[Biden] stands ready to work and is encouraging producers of oil and refined products, gas, to work with him to increase supplies, to bring gas prices and energy prices down," Yellen said.

On Wednesday, Biden sent a letter to seven major oil refiners in the U.S., blasting them for posting record profits while consumers face record-high gas prices and calling on them to increase production.

The American Petroleum Institute fired back, with its CEO and president arguing it's "the administration’s misguided policy agenda shifting away from domestic oil and natural gas [that] has compounded inflationary pressures and added headwinds to companies’ daily efforts to meet growing energy needs while reducing emissions."

"How do you respond to that?" Stephanopoulos pressed.

"I don't think that the policies are responsible for what's happening in the oil market," Yellen said. "I think that producers were partly caught unaware of the strength of the recovery in the economy and weren't ready to meet the needs of the economy. High prices should induce them to increase supplies over time."

While long-term efforts to bring down the cost of gas are being debated, Stephanopoulos asked about the short term.

"Several in Congress are calling for gas tax holidays. Prices average around $5 a gallon. Is that on the table?" Stephanopoulos asked.

"President Biden wants to do anything he possibly can to help consumers," Yellen said. "Gas prices have risen a great deal and it's clearly burdening households. So he stands ready to work with Congress, and that's an idea that's certainly worth considering."

Yellen also said the administration is considering lifting some Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods.

"We all recognize that China engages in a range of unfair trade practices that it's important to address," Yellen said. "But the tariffs we inherited, some serve no strategic purpose and raise costs to consumers. And so, reconfiguring some of those tariffs so they make more sense and reduce some unnecessary burdens is something that's under consideration."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Meghan Markle Plans Exclusive Women-Focused Retreat During Australia Visit
Starmer and Trump Hold Strategic Talks on Securing Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising Tensions
Unofficial Australia Visit by Prince Harry and Meghan Expected to Stir Tensions with Royal Circles
Pipeline Attack Cuts Significant Share of Saudi Arabia’s Oil Export Capacity
UK Stocks Rise on Ceasefire Momentum and Renewed Focus on Diplomacy
UK to Hold Further Strategic Talks on Strait of Hormuz Security
Starmer Voices Frustration as Global Tensions Drive Up UK Energy Costs
UK Students Voice Concern Over Proposal for Automatic Military Draft Registration
Rising Volatility Drives Uncertainty in UK Fuel and Petrol Prices
UK Moves to Deploy ‘Skyhammer’ Anti-Drone System to Strengthen Airspace Defense
New Analysis Explores UK Budget Mechanics in ‘Behind the Blue’ Feature
Man Arrested After Four Die in Channel Crossing Tragedy
UK Tightens Immigration Framework with New Sponsor Rules and Fee Increases
UK Foreign Secretary Highlights Impact of Intensified Strikes in Lebanon
UK Urges Inclusion of Lebanon in US-Iran Ceasefire Framework
UK Stocks Ease as Ceasefire Doubts in Middle East Weigh on Investor Confidence
UK Reassesses Cloud Strategy Amid Criticism Over Limited Support Measures
UK Calls for Full and Toll-Free Access Through Strait of Hormuz Amid Rising Tensions
Starmer Signals Strategic Shift for Britain Amid Escalating Iran-Linked Tensions
UK Issues Firm Warning to Russia Over Covert Underwater Military Activity
OpenAI Halts Stargate UK Project, Casting Uncertainty Over Britain’s AI Expansion Plans
Starmer Voices Frustration Over Global Pressures Driving UK Energy Costs Higher
UK Deploys Military Assets to Protect Undersea Cables From Suspected Russian Threat
Canada Aligns With US, UK and Australia as Europe Prepares Major Digital Border Overhaul
Meghan Markle’s Planned Australia Appearance Sparks Fresh Speculation
Starmer Warns Sustained Effort Needed to Ensure US–Iran Ceasefire Holds
UK to Partner with Shipping Industry to Rebuild Confidence in Strait of Hormuz, Cooper Says
UK Interest Rate Expectations Ease Following US–Iran Ceasefire Agreement
Starmer Signals Major Effort Needed to Fully Reopen Strait of Hormuz During Gulf Visit
UK Fuel Prices Face Ongoing Volatility Amid Global Pressures and Domestic Factors
Kanye West’s Planned Italy Festival Appearance Draws Debate After UK Entry Ban
Smuggling Routes Shift Toward Belgium as Migrant Crossings to UK Evolve
Ceasefire Offers Potential Relief for UK Fuel and Food Prices Amid Ongoing Uncertainty
Iran Conflict Raises Questions Over UK’s Global Influence and Military Preparedness
Senator McConnell Visits Kentucky to Highlight Federal Investment in Local Projects
Kanye West Barred from Entering UK as Legal Grounds Come into Focus
UK Denies Visa to Kanye West After Sponsors Withdraw from Wireless Festival
Trump-Era Forest Service Restructuring Leads to Closure of UK Lab Focused on Kentucky Woodland Health
Foreign Students in the UK Describe Harsh Living Conditions and Financial Pressures
Reform UK Proposes Visa Restrictions on Nations Pursuing Reparations Claims
Public Reaction Divides Over UK Decision to Bar Kanye West
Calls Grow for UK to Review US Base Access Following Concerns Over Escalating Rhetoric
UK Indicates It Will Not Permit Use of Its Bases for Potential US Strikes on Iran’s Energy Infrastructure
UK Prime Minister Defends Decision to Bar Kanye West, Questions Festival Booking
UK Accelerates Efforts to Harmonise Medical Technology Rules with United States
Wireless Festival Cancelled After Kanye West Denied Entry to the United Kingdom
Australia’s most decorated living soldier was arrested at Sydney Airport and charged with five counts of war-crime murder for the killing of unarmed Afghan civilians
The CIA’s Secret Technology That Can Find You by Your Heartbeat Successfully Locates Downed Airman
Operation Europe: Trump Deploys Vance to Hungary to Save the EU
King Charles Faces Criticism From Some UK Christians Over Absence of Easter Message
×