London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Sep 22, 2026

PM warns of 'long, long way to go' for UK economy

PM warns of 'long, long way to go' for UK economy

The number of people employed between April and June fell by the most since the financial crisis.

Boris Johnson has warned the UK has a "long, long way to go" before the economy improves, after official figures showed the largest drop in employment in over a decade.

"Clearly there are going to be bumpy months ahead and a long, long way to go," the Prime Minister said.

However, he said parts of the economy were "showing great resilience".

Between April and June, the number of people in work fell by 220,000, the Office for National Statistics said.

The drop in the number of people employed was the largest quarterly decrease since May to July 2009, the depths of the financial crisis.

Mr Johnson said he had "absolutely no doubt" that government schemes would "help this country get through it", adding: "it will get through it stronger than ever before".

The youngest workers, oldest workers and those in manual occupations were the worst hit during the pandemic, the ONS added.

The figures do not include the millions of people who are furloughed, those on zero-hours contracts but not getting shifts, or people on temporary unpaid leave from a job, as they still count as employed.

As such, they do not capture the full impact of the pandemic. Similarly, the UK unemployment rate was estimated at 3.9%, largely unchanged on the year and the previous quarter.



Jonathan Athow, deputy national statistician at the ONS, said: "The groups of people most affected are younger workers, 24 and under, or older workers and those in more routine or less skilled jobs.

"This is concerning, as it's harder for these groups to find a new job or get into a job as easily as other workers."

How bad is this likely to get?


The UK economy has been battered by the coronavirus pandemic, but unemployment has not surged as much as feared because large numbers of firms have furloughed staff.

However, analysts said unemployment was set to worsen in coming months as the scheme wound down, warning of a looming "cliff-edge" and a "lull before the storm".



From restaurants to retailers, many UK businesses are already planning job cuts with 140,000 redundancies announced in June alone.

According to the ONS, the number of average hours worked continued to fall in April-June, reaching record lows both on the year and on the quarter.

The number of people claiming universal credit - a benefit for those on low pay as well as unemployed people - rose to 2.7 million in July, up by 117% since March.

How are ordinary people coping?


Theatre technician Charlotte Baker, 29, is out of work as a result of the coronavirus crisis.

She started a new job at the Fairfield Halls in Croydon in September last year and was furloughed in March.



In June, she was made redundant, even though she could have been kept on furlough.

Now management at the Fairfield Halls has said the venue will not reopen until April next year, forcing her to contemplate a possible career change.

"It's definitely an uphill struggle and it's proving harder than previous ones," she told the BBC. "It's hard to have a positive outlook."

Charlotte has been looking into doing a carpentry course, but to obtain the necessary City and Guilds qualification would require her to spend £5,000 on training.

"It's a mountain to climb. I wouldn't mind climbing that mountain if it's something that I'm passionate about, but I'm not sure," she says.

"I'm hoping to make a decision by the end of August."

How is this affecting people who still have jobs?


Between April and June there were falls in pay for those still working, with regular pay levels down 0.2% compared with a year earlier - the first negative pay growth since records began in 2001.

The number of people on zero-hours contracts also increased to more than one million.

"Early indicators for July 2020 suggest that the number of employees in the UK on payrolls is down around 730,000 compared with March 2020," said the ONS.

It believes the main reason this is more extreme than the fall in employment is because of workers who have a job but are not doing any paid work at the moment.

It added that a large number of people were estimated to be temporarily away from work, including furloughed workers - approximately 7.5 million in June 2020, with more than three million of these being away for three months or more.

The number of workers covered by the furlough scheme has since risen to 9.6 million by 9 August, and has yet to record a fall in any week since it began, separate statistics published on Tuesday by HM Revenue and Customs show.

The ONS said there had also been a sharp fall in the number of self-employed people between April and June.

It said there were 4.76 million self-employed people, 14.5% of all people in employment, a record 238,000 fewer than the previous quarter.

Is it all bad news?



If you're a glass-half-full sort of person, there is some less than awful news in the latest labour market figures.

The number of vacancies, for example, rose from its record low by 10% in May to July as lockdown restrictions were eased. The number of hours worked saw a record drop in the second quarter from April to June, but in July it was down by only 3%, less than half the fall in May and June.

However, there are some less jolly signs. The number on employer payrolls had only dropped marginally in the previous two months, but saw a much bigger drop in July, down 114,000, in spite of the reopening of many shops, restaurants and pubs.

And employers are increasingly making employees bear the risk that there isn't enough work for them to do, with the number of zero-hours contracts rising above one million for the first time.

And then there's the record drop in self-employment. And all this in spite of the government spending more than £40bn trying to protect employment through furlough and self-employed income support.

Unemployment tends to peak well after economic shocks have been and gone: this time will be no different.

What are economists saying?


Ruth Gregory, senior UK economist at Capital Economics, said the latest employment figures were "the lull before the storm".

She added: "The cracks evident in the latest batch of labour market data are likely to soon turn into a chasm, with the unemployment rate rising from 3.9% to around 7% by mid-2021."

She said further rises in unemployment in the coming months were "all but inevitable as the furlough scheme unwinds".

Capital Economics forecasts that the unemployment rate will peak at 7% in mid-2021 and remain above its pre-pandemic level of 4% until the end of 2022.

Ms Gregory said this suggested that the economic recovery would be "slow going".




Jeremy Thomson-Cook, chief economist at Equals Money, said the figures showed the true level of those out of work had been "very effectively lowered by the government's furlough scheme" and that the worst lay ahead.

"Unfortunately, the end of the furlough scheme will present a cliff-edge, statistically and economically, for those currently relying on government support to make up their wages."

What's the political reaction?


Chancellor Rishi Sunak said the figures showed that the government's "unprecedented support measures" were working to "safeguard millions of jobs and livelihoods that could otherwise have been lost".

Shadow work and pensions secretary Jonathan Reynolds said it was "extremely worrying" that older workers, the self-employed and part-time workers had been hit hardest.

"Labour has repeatedly warned the government their one-size-fits-all approach will lead to job losses. These figures confirm what we feared - Britain is in the midst of a jobs crisis."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Michelin Guide Faces Industry Questions Over Restaurant Inspection Coverage
English Woodlands Face Renewed Weather Stress From Dry Conditions and Strong Winds
Research Finds Extensive Alcohol, Gambling and Unhealthy Food Branding During 2026 World Cup
Five Charged After Newborn Baby Dies From Stab Wounds in Sheffield
BT Could Reap £2 Billion From Recycling Copper as Full-Fibre Network Expands
FCA Urges Young Adults to Trace £1.5 Billion in Unclaimed Child Trust Funds
Reform UK Names Helen Jenner as New Leader in Wales After Dan Thomas Steps Down
Resolution Foundation Calls for Broad-Based Tax Rises to Fund Higher UK Defence Spending
Ed Davey Calls for Global Treaty to Halt Development of Super-Intelligent AI
Scotland Consults on Legal Price Caps for Essential Foods
NHS Productivity Reforms Could Prevent More Than 20,000 Early Deaths a Year, Report Says
United Kingdom and ASEAN Deepen Trade and Investment Cooperation
United Kingdom Deploys RAF Refuelling Support to Saudi Arabia After Houthi Attacks
UK Fiscal Headroom Shrinks as Higher Borrowing Costs Complicate Autumn Budget
UK Public Borrowing Jumps to £18.3 Billion in August, Raising Pressure Before Budget
Andy Burnham Reaffirms UK Net-Zero Target With £30 Million Community Energy Fund
Scottish Labour Leader Backs Rosebank and Jackdaw North Sea Projects
UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Three-Year Low
UK Diesel Prices Approach £2 a Litre as Global Supply Shortages Intensify
Chiltern Railways Returns to Public Ownership as UK Rail Nationalisation Advances
British Museum Faces Questions Over Peter Thiel’s Private Bayeux Tapestry Viewing
Earl Spencer Memoir Excerpts Renew Public Debate Over Diana’s Death
Liberal Democrats Gather in Brighton for Autumn Conference
Mothercare Shares Plunge as Middle East Store Closures Threaten Long-Term Solvency
Kent Police Treat Folkestone Hotel Fire as Suspicious
Caribbean Governments Advance Reparations Campaign Seeking Engagement With Britain
Scottish Labour Leader Backs Rosebank and Jackdaw North Sea Projects
FCA Urges Young Adults to Trace £1.5 Billion in Unclaimed Child Trust Funds
UK Competition Regulator Opens Inquiry Into McCormick-Unilever Foods Deal
Public Inquiry Into Tees, Esk and Wear Valleys Mental Health Failings Set to Begin
Nigel Farage Looks to US Immigration Enforcement Model for UK Border Policy
Chiltern Railways Moves Into Public Ownership
Security Review Raises Concerns Over Sensitive UK Police Data Stored on Microsoft Cloud
Burnham Government Warns of Difficult Autumn Budget as Fiscal Headroom Narrows
Bank of England Holds Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Rises to 3.1%
Ed Sheeran Tour Faces Backlash After Macklemore Is Removed Over Pro-Palestinian Remarks
Vandalism of Traffic Cameras Intensifies Across Parts of England
Nearly 300 Evacuated as Fire Hits Grand Burstin Hotel in Folkestone
King Charles Warns AI Executives About Risks From Uncontrolled Technology
Church of England Apologises for Role in Historical Forced Adoption Practices
UK Debate Over Online Speech Intensifies After Arrest Figures Draw Scrutiny
Oxfordshire Village Holds Symbolic Independence Vote Over Asylum Accommodation Plan
Nigel Farage and Richard Tice Sue National Crime Agency Over Alleged Banking Data Leaks
Apple Introduces Stricter Age Checks for UK Accounts
BBC Cash Reserves Fall 66% to £125 Million as Broadcaster Restructures
McLaren Announces £500 Million UK Investment and Plans 1,000 Jobs
Green Party Wins Historic Gorton and Denton By-Election as Labour Falls to Third
Burnham Government Prepares October Budget Under Growing Fiscal Pressure
UK Energy Suppliers Pull Fixed-Price Deals as Wholesale Markets Turn More Volatile
Bank of England Holds Rates at 3.75% as Middle East Energy Shock Raises Inflation Risks
×