London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Feb 03, 2026

Of all the troubling signs, the increase in 'economic inactivity' is perhaps the most worrying

Of all the troubling signs, the increase in 'economic inactivity' is perhaps the most worrying

The number of people classed as economically inactive because they are long-term sick has reached a record high, with the largest rise among the over-50s - taking millions of people out of the workforce.

Of all the troubling vital signs displayed by the British economy, the increase in "economic inactivity" is perhaps the most worrying.

Since the pandemic the number of people neither working nor seeking work for a range of reasons has risen to more than nine million people, one-in-five working age adults.

Initially it was driven by an increase in students deferring the transition to work, but latterly a more worrying underlying trend has emerged; long-term sickness.

The numbers of those classed as economically inactive because they are long-term sick has reached a record high, with the largest rise among the over-50s - taking millions of people out of the workforce.

In the three months from June to August the rate of economic inactivity increased by 0.6 percentage points to 21.7%, with 624,000 more people out of the workplace in August than before COVID-19 stalled the economy.

This is weighing heavily on a labour market already extremely "tight" - the euphemism for an economy struggling to fill the jobs it needs doing.

Unemployment in the quarter to August was down to 3.5%, a 48-year low, but so was employment, the second successive month in which fewer people were working and fully one percentage point below pre-pandemic levels.

The number of vacancies also dipped again, but there are still more unfilled roles than there are unemployed people (defined as those looking for work) with only 0.9 for every available job.


Reversing the rise in inactivity is a huge challenge made harder, and perhaps caused to a degree, by the pressure facing the NHS.

There is a clear link between economic inactivity and NHS treatment delays.


The number of people waiting for non-emergency treatment after being referred has risen from a little below four million to just short of seven million since 2020, and a remarkable 18% of economically inactive over-50s are among them, according to the Office for National Statistics.

For a government fixated on growth to fix public services these data are enough to turn the stomach.

The prime minister has repeatedly said that you cannot have a healthy NHS without a strong economy, but the latest employment trends suggest the opposite is also true; the economy will not have the workers it needs to grow if the health service can't meet demand to get them there.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Pharma Watchdog Rules Sanofi Breached Industry Code With RSV Vaccine Claims Against Pfizer
Melania Documentary Opens Modestly in UK with Mixed Global Box Office Performance
Starmer Arrives in Shanghai to Promote British Trade and Investment
Harry Styles, Anthony Joshua and Premier League Stars Among UK’s Top Taxpayers
New Epstein Files Include Images of Former Prince Andrew Kneeling Over Unidentified Woman
Starmer Urges Former Prince Andrew to Testify Before US Congress About Epstein Ties
Starmer Extends Invitation to Japan’s Prime Minister After Strategic Tokyo Talks
Skupski and Harrison Clinch Australian Open Men’s Doubles Title in Melbourne
DOJ Unveils Millions of Epstein Files, Fueling Global Scrutiny of Elite Networks
France Begins Phasing Out Zoom and Microsoft Teams to Advance Digital Sovereignty
China Lifts Sanctions on British MPs and Peers After Starmer Xi Talks in Beijing
Trump Nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair to Reorient U.S. Monetary Policy Toward Pro-Growth Interest Rates
AstraZeneca Announces £11bn China Investment After Scaling Back UK Expansion Plans
Starmer and Xi Forge Warming UK-China Ties in Beijing Amid Strategic Reset
Tech Market Shifts and AI Investment Surge Drive Global Innovation and Layoffs
Markets Jolt as AI Spending, US Policy Shifts, and Global Security Moves Drive New Volatility
U.S. Signals Potential Decertification of Canadian Aircraft as Bilateral Tensions Escalate
Former South Korean First Lady Kim Keon Hee Sentenced to 20 Months for Bribery
Tesla Ends Model S and X Production and Sends $2 Billion to xAI as 2025 Revenue Declines
China Executes 11 Members of the Ming Clan in Cross-Border Scam Case Linked to Myanmar’s Lawkai
Trump Administration Officials Held Talks With Group Advocating Alberta’s Independence
Starmer Signals UK Push for a More ‘Sophisticated’ Relationship With China in Talks With Xi
Shopping Chatbots Move From Advice to Checkout as Walmart Pushes Faster Than Amazon
Starmer Seeks Economic Gains From China Visit While Navigating US Diplomatic Sensitivities
Starmer Says China Visit Will Deliver Economic Benefits as He Prepares to Meet Xi Jinping
UK Prime Minister Starmer Arrives in China to Bolster Trade and Warn Firms of Strategic Opportunities
The AI Hiring Doom Loop — Algorithmic Recruiting Filters Out Top Talent and Rewards Average or Fake Candidates
Amazon to Cut 16,000 Corporate Jobs After Earlier 14,000 Reduction, Citing Streamlining and AI Investment
Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rate at 3.75% as Powell Faces DOJ Criminal Investigation During 2026 Decision
Putin’s Four-Year Ukraine Invasion Cost: Russia’s Mass Casualty Attrition and the Donbas Security-Guarantee Tradeoff
Wall Street Bets on Strong US Growth and Currency Moves as Dollar Slips After Trump Comments
UK Prime Minister Traveled to China Using Temporary Phones and Laptops to Limit Espionage Risks
Google’s $68 Million Voice Assistant Settlement Exposes Incentives That Reward Over-Collection
Kim Kardashian Admits Faking Paparazzi Visit to Britney Spears for Fame in Early 2000s
UPS to Cut 30,000 More Jobs by 2026 Amid Shift to High-Margin Deliveries
France Plans to Replace Teams and Zoom Across Government With Homegrown Visio by 2027
Trump Removes Minneapolis Deportation Operation Commander After Fatal Shooting of Protester
Iran’s Elite Wealth Abroad and Sanctions Leakage: How Offshore Luxury Sustains Regime Resilience
U.S. Central Command Announces Regional Air Exercise as Iran Unveils Drone Carrier Footage
Four Arrested in Andhra Pradesh Over Alleged HIV-Contaminated Injection Attack on Doctor
Hot Drinks, Hidden Particles: How Disposable Cups Quietly Increase Microplastic Exposure
UK Banks Pledge £11 Billion Lending Package to Help Firms Expand Overseas
Suella Braverman Defects to Reform UK, Accusing Conservatives of Betrayal on Core Policies
Melania Trump Documentary Sees Limited Box Office Traction in UK Cinemas
Meta and EssilorLuxottica Ray-Ban Smart Glasses and the Non-Consensual Public Recording Economy
WhatsApp Develops New Meta AI Features to Enhance User Control
Germany Considers Gold Reserves Amidst Rising Tensions with the U.S.
Michael Schumacher Shows Significant Improvement in Health Status
Greenland’s NATO Stress Test: Coercion, Credibility, and the New Arctic Bargaining Game
Diego Garcia and the Chagos Dispute: When Decolonization Collides With Alliance Power
×