London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Saturday, Sep 19, 2026

New Covid variant: How worried should we be?

New Covid variant: How worried should we be?

We're back in familiar territory - growing concern about a new variant of coronavirus.

The latest is the most heavily mutated version discovered so far - and it has such a long list of mutations that it was described by one scientist as "horrific", while another told me it was the worst variant they'd seen.

It is early days and the confirmed cases are still mostly concentrated in one province in South Africa, but there are hints it may have spread further.

Immediately there are questions around how quickly the new variant spreads, its ability to bypass some of the protection given by vaccines and what should be done about it.

There is a lot of speculation, but there are very few clear answers.

So, what do we know?


The variant has been named Omicron by the World Health Organization, following the pattern of Greek code-names like the Alpha and Delta variants.

It is also incredibly heavily mutated. Prof Tulio de Oliveira, the director of the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation in South Africa, said there was an "unusual constellation of mutations" and that it was "very different" to other variants that have circulated.

"This variant did surprise us, it has a big jump on evolution [and] many more mutations that we expected," he said.

In a media briefing Prof de Oliveira said there were 50 mutations overall and more than 30 on the spike protein, which is the target of most vaccines and the key the virus uses to unlock the doorway into our body's cells.

Zooming in even further to the receptor binding domain (that's the part of the virus that makes first contact with our body's cells), it has 10 mutations compared to just two for the Delta variant that swept the world.

This level of mutation has most likely come from a single patient who was unable to beat the virus.

A lot of mutation doesn't automatically mean: bad. It is important to know what those mutations are actually doing.


But the concern is this virus is now radically different to the original that emerged in Wuhan, China. That means vaccines, which were designed using the original strain, may not be as effective.

Some of the mutations have been seen before in other variants, which gives some insight into their likely role in this variant.

For example N501Y seems to make it easier for a coronavirus to spread. There are some in there that make it harder for antibodies to recognise the virus and might make vaccines less effective, but there are others that are completely new.

Prof Richard Lessells, from the University of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa, said: "They give us concern this virus might have enhanced transmissibility, enhanced ability to spread from person to person, but might also be able to get around parts of the immune system."

There have been many examples of variants that have seemed scary on paper, but came to nothing. The Beta variant was at the top of people's concerns at the beginning of the year because it was the best at escaping the immune system. But in the end it was the faster-spreading Delta that took over the world.

Prof Ravi Gupta, from the University of Cambridge, said: "Beta was all immune escape and nothing else, Delta had infectivity and modest immune escape, this potentially has both to high degrees."

Scientific studies in the laboratory will give a clearer picture, but answers will come more quickly from monitoring the virus in the real world.

It is still early to draw clear conclusions, but there are already signs that are causing worry.

There have been 77 fully confirmed cases in Gauteng province in South Africa, four cases in Botswana and one in Hong Kong (which is directly linked to travel from South Africa). Israel and Belgium have also reported cases.

However, there are clues the variant has spread even more widely.

This variant seems to give quirky results (known as an S-gene dropout) in the standard tests and that can be used to track the variant without doing a full genetic analysis.

That suggests 90% of cases in Gauteng may already be this variant and it "may already be present in most provinces" in South Africa.

But this does not tell us whether it spreads faster than Delta, is any more severe or to what extent it can evade the immune protection that comes from vaccination.

It also does not tell us how well the variant will spread in countries with much higher vaccination rates than the 24% of South Africa that is fully vaccinated, although large numbers of people in the country have had Covid.

So for now we are left with a variant that raises significant concerns despite huge holes in our knowledge, and is one that needs to be watched closely and asks deep questions about what to do and when. The lesson of the pandemic is you can't always wait until you have all the answers.


Why do new variants of Covid-19 keep appearing?


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Addison Lee Founder Loses £20.5 Million Non-Domicile Tax Case
BrewDog Creditors Face Heavy Losses After Collapse
Thirteenth Metropolitan Police Officer Dismissed Over Charing Cross Conduct
Oxfordshire Village Votes Symbolically to Leave UK Over Asylum Accommodation Plan
NHS Approves Life-Extending Treatment for Women With Incurable Breast Cancer
Software Defect Blamed for Major UK Air Traffic Disruption
Twenty Women Underwent Unnecessary Mastectomies at County Durham NHS Trust
British Steel Costs Taxpayers £1.3 Million a Day as MPs Demand Long-Term Plan
UK Parliament Advances Sovereign Grant Reform Setting Royal Funding at £99.9 Million
King Charles Urges Human-Centred Approach to Artificial Intelligence at Scotland Summit
House of Lords Begins Scrutiny of Voting-Age and Political Finance Reforms
UK Labour Market Shows Growing Divide Between Younger and Older Workers
Nearly Seven in 10 UK Small Businesses Delay or Cancel Growth Plans as Costs Rise
Andy Burnham Reaffirms UK Net-Zero Target Amid North Sea Energy Debate
UK Parliament Demands Credible Financial and Decarbonisation Plan for British Steel
MPs Urge Government to Reject Thames Water Rescue Deal and Prepare Special Administration
Bank of England Holds Rate at 3.75% as Energy Shock Raises Inflation Risks
TUC Calls for Social Energy Tariff Funded by Higher Taxes on Bank Profits
UK Parliament Enters Conference Recess After Advancing Sovereign Grant Legislation
King Charles Hosts Artificial Intelligence Leaders at Dumfries House Summit
Nearly Seven in Ten UK Small Businesses Delay or Cancel Growth Plans as Costs Rise
Anthropic Details Malicious Use of Claude in Cyber, Weapons and Influence Operations
McLaren Announces £500 Million UK Investment and 1,000 New Jobs
Scotland and Wales Sign Cardiff Agreement to Deepen Cooperation on Shared Policy Priorities
UK Government Moves to Fully Fund Teacher Pay Award as Strike Threat Recedes
UK Competition Regulator Deepens Scrutiny of Microsoft’s Business Software and AI Market Position
NHS England Reforms Focus on Cutting Waiting Lists and Improving Digital Care
England Maintains Mandatory Housing Targets in Push for 1.5 Million New Homes
UK Government Plans Statutory Industrial Strategy Council to Strengthen Long-Term Economic Policy
Asthma Charity Warns of Major Gaps in Childhood Diagnostic Testing Across England
TUC Chief Paul Nowak Appointed to Bank of England Court
Bristol Opens £35 Million Deep-Tech Innovation Hub at Temple Quarter
Oxfordshire Village Votes Symbolically to Leave UK Over Asylum Housing Plan
Andy Burnham Deepens UK Defense and AI Cooperation With NATO and Canada
UK Government Announces Neonatal Safety Reforms After Thirlwall Inquiry
Bank of England Weighs Rate Decision as UK Inflation Rises to 3.1%
UK Health Unions Warn of Staffing Pressures as Public and Private Pay Growth Diverges
Rockstar Games Faces Tribunal Claims From 23 Former Grand Theft Auto VI Developers
UK Treasury Faces Tighter Budget Constraints as Borrowing Costs and Pension Spending Rise
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Sets Out Ten-Year Plan for Greater Public Oversight of Utilities
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Services and Technology Activity Strengthen
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland Leaders Coordinate Push for UK Constitutional Change
Police Tighten Public-Order Measures After Anti-Immigration Protests in Dover and Portsmouth
UK Ministers Pressed for Answers After US Diplomat Accused of Child Abuse Images Leaves Britain
Jaguar Land Rover Pursues NATO Defense Contracts for Defender Vehicles
British Service Member Dies in Road Accident While Deployed in Ukraine
George Osborne Calls for Britain to Rejoin EU Customs Union
Anthropic Chief Dario Amodei Urges Faster UK Action on Advanced AI Risks
UK State Pension Set for 3.9% Rise Under Triple Lock
UK Labour Market Cools as Payrolled Employment Continues to Decline
×