London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Sep 28, 2026

New Covid variant: How worried should we be?

New Covid variant: How worried should we be?

We're back in familiar territory - growing concern about a new variant of coronavirus.

The latest is the most heavily mutated version discovered so far - and it has such a long list of mutations that it was described by one scientist as "horrific", while another told me it was the worst variant they'd seen.

It is early days and the confirmed cases are still mostly concentrated in one province in South Africa, but there are hints it may have spread further.

Immediately there are questions around how quickly the new variant spreads, its ability to bypass some of the protection given by vaccines and what should be done about it.

There is a lot of speculation, but there are very few clear answers.

So, what do we know?


The variant has been named Omicron by the World Health Organization, following the pattern of Greek code-names like the Alpha and Delta variants.

It is also incredibly heavily mutated. Prof Tulio de Oliveira, the director of the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation in South Africa, said there was an "unusual constellation of mutations" and that it was "very different" to other variants that have circulated.

"This variant did surprise us, it has a big jump on evolution [and] many more mutations that we expected," he said.

In a media briefing Prof de Oliveira said there were 50 mutations overall and more than 30 on the spike protein, which is the target of most vaccines and the key the virus uses to unlock the doorway into our body's cells.

Zooming in even further to the receptor binding domain (that's the part of the virus that makes first contact with our body's cells), it has 10 mutations compared to just two for the Delta variant that swept the world.

This level of mutation has most likely come from a single patient who was unable to beat the virus.

A lot of mutation doesn't automatically mean: bad. It is important to know what those mutations are actually doing.


But the concern is this virus is now radically different to the original that emerged in Wuhan, China. That means vaccines, which were designed using the original strain, may not be as effective.

Some of the mutations have been seen before in other variants, which gives some insight into their likely role in this variant.

For example N501Y seems to make it easier for a coronavirus to spread. There are some in there that make it harder for antibodies to recognise the virus and might make vaccines less effective, but there are others that are completely new.

Prof Richard Lessells, from the University of KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa, said: "They give us concern this virus might have enhanced transmissibility, enhanced ability to spread from person to person, but might also be able to get around parts of the immune system."

There have been many examples of variants that have seemed scary on paper, but came to nothing. The Beta variant was at the top of people's concerns at the beginning of the year because it was the best at escaping the immune system. But in the end it was the faster-spreading Delta that took over the world.

Prof Ravi Gupta, from the University of Cambridge, said: "Beta was all immune escape and nothing else, Delta had infectivity and modest immune escape, this potentially has both to high degrees."

Scientific studies in the laboratory will give a clearer picture, but answers will come more quickly from monitoring the virus in the real world.

It is still early to draw clear conclusions, but there are already signs that are causing worry.

There have been 77 fully confirmed cases in Gauteng province in South Africa, four cases in Botswana and one in Hong Kong (which is directly linked to travel from South Africa). Israel and Belgium have also reported cases.

However, there are clues the variant has spread even more widely.

This variant seems to give quirky results (known as an S-gene dropout) in the standard tests and that can be used to track the variant without doing a full genetic analysis.

That suggests 90% of cases in Gauteng may already be this variant and it "may already be present in most provinces" in South Africa.

But this does not tell us whether it spreads faster than Delta, is any more severe or to what extent it can evade the immune protection that comes from vaccination.

It also does not tell us how well the variant will spread in countries with much higher vaccination rates than the 24% of South Africa that is fully vaccinated, although large numbers of people in the country have had Covid.

So for now we are left with a variant that raises significant concerns despite huge holes in our knowledge, and is one that needs to be watched closely and asks deep questions about what to do and when. The lesson of the pandemic is you can't always wait until you have all the answers.


Why do new variants of Covid-19 keep appearing?


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
RNLI Chief Executive Condemns Misinformation and Abuse Targeting Volunteer Crews
Metropolitan Police Charge Swindon Man with Assisting Foreign Intelligence Services
British Intelligence Report Warns Environmental Collapse Threatens Global Defense Infrastructure
Conservative Party Rejects New Taxes to Fund UK Social Care Reforms
Labour Government Signals Intent to Ease Residency Restrictions for Foreign Care Workers
Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre Meet to Strengthen North Atlantic Defense
UK Government Plans to Revive Equity Loan Scheme to Assist First-Time Home Buyers
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Pledges Radical Reform for UK Utilities and Social Care
UK Treasury Prepares Difficult Autumn Budget Amid High Debt and Energy Volatility
Civil Aviation Authority Launches Review of Air Traffic Systems Following Digital Failure
X Reports First Increase in UK Revenues Following Advertiser Boycott
Shetland Islands Council Approves £400 Million Inter-Island Tunnel Project
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband Warns Iran Against Hostile Activities on British Soil
UK Ministers Concede Chagos Islands Sovereignty Agreement Terminated After US Opposition
More in Common Poll Projects Hung Parliament with Labour Leading and Reform UK Gains
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Defends Economic Strategy as Public Finances Face Headwinds
Tony Blair Urges Government to Set Long-Term Goal of Rejoining the European Union
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Pledges Universal Free Social Care Funded Through General Taxation
UK Diesel and Petrol Prices Surge Near All-Time Highs Amid Middle East Energy Volatility
Analysis of Reform UK conference highlights deep political divisions over welfare and immigration
Bangladesh garment exports to the United Kingdom reach $915 million in early fiscal year
Royal Navy begins sea trials for new HMS Agamemnon hunter-killer submarine
New report suggests UK data centre expansion will create far fewer jobs than predicted
Major weekend closures announced for London Underground Piccadilly and Central lines
NHS leaders call for emergency winter funding to combat staffing shortages and rising illness
Far-right activist Daniel Thomas charged following alleged slashing of migrant dinghy
Home Secretary orders urgent review of border security following rise in small boat crossings
Prime Minister Andy Burnham to address Labour Party conference amid calls for long-term infrastructure plan
UK Treasury and Bank of England warn of rising inflation risks amid Middle East tensions
Royal Navy Diving Squadron Honoured for Global Bomb Disposal Efforts
UK State Pension Set to Approach £13,000 Per Year Under Triple-Lock
Rolls-Royce Wins Multi-Million-Pound Engine Contract with Philippine Airlines
TfL Questions Future of Heathrow Express Amid Proposed £33 Billion Expansion
Ed Miliband Warns Iran Against Hostile Operations on British Soil
S&P Global Manufacturing Index Signals Stabilization Amid Rising Fuel Costs
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Launches National Centre for Information Defence
UK Food and Drink Trade Deficit Surges to £21.1 Billion
OECD Upgrades United Kingdom Economic Growth Forecast to 1.1 Percent
Bank of England Faces Policy Challenges as Energy Prices Push Inflation Projections Higher
IMF Urges UK and Major Economies to Reduce Public Borrowing and Debt
UK Government Concedes Chagos Islands Sovereignty Deal is Dead Following Trump Opposition
Prosecutors Seek More Than 10 Years in Prison for Former DUP Leader Jeffrey Donaldson
UK Provided £66 Million in Emergency Security Funding for Mosques After Southport Disorder
Manston Inquiry Examines Role of Government Decisions in 2022 Overcrowding Crisis
Justice System Capacity Pressures Raise Concerns Over Release of Sex Offenders
UK Food and Drink Trade Deficit Widens to Record £21.1 Billion
UK Releases Climate Security Findings Previously Withheld Under Starmer
TalkTalk Races to Sell Consumer and Broadband Businesses as Administration Threat Looms
NHS Bodies Impose Minimum Two-Year Waits for ADHD and Autism Assessments
Andy Burnham Pledges £210 Million to Revive Boarded-Up High Streets
×