London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 30, 2025

Lifting Covid rules in England ‘will overwhelm testing capacity’

Lifting Covid rules in England ‘will overwhelm testing capacity’

Exclusive: Expert says 660,000 PCR tests a day will be needed if country has 100,000 daily infections

The £22bn NHS test-and-trace system risks being overwhelmed by surging Covid infections after the planned wholesale lifting of restrictions in England this month, a leading academic has warned.

Jon Deeks, a professor of biostatistics at the University of Birmingham, said at least 660,000 gold-standard PCR tests are likely to be needed each day to discover 100,000 daily infections this summer – the number forewarned by the health secretary, Sajid Javid, after the government announced plans to drop restrictions from 19 July.

This level of testing is almost three times the current rate in the UK, more than double the highest volume achieved at any point during the pandemic, and at the peak of the system’s theoretical laboratory capacity calculated this spring by the National Audit Office (NAO).

One director of public health warned that rationing may be required in the areas where contact tracing is carried out, focusing on poorer locations on the basis that residents are more likely to live in overcrowded conditions and have face-to-face jobs.

The latest data released by NHS test and trace on Thursday showed signs of the system already straining. Positive tests in England were up 71% in the last week of June – the highest number since early February – and turnaround times have increased, with the proportion of in-person test results returned in 24 hours down to 77% from 84% the previous week.

On Thursday, the UK had another 32,551 reported coronavirus cases and 35 deaths within 28 days of a positive test. It is the highest death toll since early April and the highest number of new infections since 20 January.

Ministers are now heaping further pressure on the test-and-trace system, which has a £22bn budget, by mandating that anyone who has close contact with an infected person from 16 August should take a PCR test “as soon as possible” instead of self-isolating.

“If we get to 100,000 cases a day, the capacity of our testing system is going to be breached, particularly when we build in the recommendation for testing contacts,” Deeks told the Guardian. “Plus some of the labs are being shut down, such as the turnkey lab here at the University of Birmingham.” The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) said it has been consolidating its laboratory network.


PCR testing capacity has been reduced by more than 100,000 tests per day since the end of March, according to the NAO, but it has increased 45% in the last four weeks.

On Thursday, Dr Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the UK Health and Security Agency, who is now in charge of NHS test and trace, told MPs that current laboratory capacity was “peaking”. She said the sharp rise in cases is also “overstretching” local contact tracing capacity.

She said private labs would now be used as “part of the planned step-up” in capacity to tackle the growing demand. A DHSC-owned “mega-lab” built at Leamington Spa has started operating, but will only reach capacity “in the coming months”.

Directors of public health have also warned the accelerating spread of the Delta coronavirus variant in recent weeks means their capacity to reach infected people and gather information about their contacts is close to its limit.

“I am struggling to think how [the system] can cope with 100,000 cases a day,” said Greg Fell, the director of public health for Sheffield city council, which contacts people who have tested positive to instruct them to isolate, gather contacts and offer support. “We have seen a massive increase in cases over recent days and that’s only going to go one way. We are getting close to capacity now.”

One director said local teams were “despondent” and added: “I don’t see how test and trace will cope with 100,000 cases a day, if I’m honest.”

Lorna Smith, Newcastle’s deputy director of public health, said: “The system could not cope with that number using a test and trace approach and a lack of other restrictions or guidance in place. That level of transmission has serious implications for our health system … [with] a significant proportion of unvaccinated adults that we still need to reach.” Some 53% of adults in Newcastle have still not had two doses.

Harries told MPs on Thursday that some councils have already hit contract tracing capacity and are handing cases over to the centralised system. But she said she anticipated new cases peaking in the middle of August when 75% of the population should be double jabbed.

Greg Clark, the Conservative chairman of the Commons science and technology committee, said: “Now we have surging infections ... a lot rests on test and trace in the future, and the record over the last year has not been one of reliable springing into life to wrestle this virus to the ground.”

Deeks based his estimate of the required capacity on the testing needs at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of January, when 300,000 PCR tests were deployed each day to find 45,000 cases. More recently the number of tests required to find a case has increased, meaning his estimate may be conservative.

Labour said it appeared the government had not learned from mistakes last autumn when people were sent hundreds of miles for tests “because of a failure to anticipate increased demand for tests”.

“This coupled with the winding down of the contract tracing service earlier this year leaves us dangerously exposed at a time when the government seems hell bent on maximising the risk,” said Justin Madders, a shadow health minister.

A DHSC spokesperson said: “We continuously review our laboratory requirements as the pandemic progresses. NHS test and trace continues to be a central part of our roadmap to return life to normal, and our new UK Health Security Agency will consolidate the enormous expertise that now exists across our health system to help us face down future threats and viruses.”

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK and Vietnam Sign Landmark Migration Deal to Fast-Track Returns of Irregular Arrivals
UK Drug-Pricing Overhaul Essential for Life-Sciences Ambition, Says GSK Chief
Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie Temporarily Leave the UK Amid Their Parents’ Royal Fallout
UK Weighs Early End to Oil and Gas Windfall Tax as Reeves Seeks Investment Commitments
UK Retail Inflation Slows as Shop Prices Fall for First Time Since Spring
Next Raises Full-Year Profit Guidance After Strong Third-Quarter Performance
Reform UK’s Lee Anderson Admits to 'Gaming' Benefits System While Advocating Crackdown
United States and South Korea Conclude Major Trade Accord Worth $350 Billion
Hurricane Melissa Strikes Cuba After Devastating Jamaica With Record Winds
Vice President Vance to Headline Turning Point USA Campus Event at Ole Miss
U.S. Targets Maritime Narco-Routes While Border Pressure to Mexico Remains Limited
Bill Gates at 70: “I Have a Real Fear of Artificial Intelligence – and Also Regret”
Elon Musk Unveils Grokipedia: An AI-Driven Alternative to Wikipedia
Saudi Arabia Unveils Vision for First-Ever "Sky Stadium" Suspended Over Desert Floor
Amazon Announces 14 000 Corporate Job Cuts as AI Investment Accelerates
UK Shop Prices Fall for First Time Since March, Food Leads the Decline
London Stock Exchange Group ADR (LNSTY) Earns Zacks Rank #1 Upgrade on Rising Earnings Outlook
Soap legend Tony Adams, long-time star of Crossroads, dies at 84
Rachel Reeves Signals Tax Increases Ahead of November Budget Amid £20-50 Billion Fiscal Gap
NatWest Past Gains of 314% Spotlight Opportunity — But Some Key Risks Remain
UK Launches ‘Golden Age’ of Nuclear with £38 Billion Sizewell C Approval
UK Announces £1.08 Billion Budget for Offshore Wind Auction to Boost 2030 Capacity
UK Seeks Steel Alliance with EU and US to Counter China’s Over-Capacity
UK Struggles to Balance China as Both Strategic Threat and Valued Trading Partner
Argentina’s Markets Surge as Milei’s Party Secures Major Win
British Journalist Sami Hamdi Detained by U.S. Authorities After Visa Revocation Amid Israel-Gaza Commentary
King Charles Unveils UK’s First LGBT+ Armed Forces Memorial at National Memorial Arboretum
At ninety-two and re-elected: Paul Biya secures eighth term in Cameroon amid unrest
Racist Incidents Against UK Nurses Surge by 55%
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves Cites Shared Concerns With Trump Administration as Foundation for Early US-UK Trade Deal
Essentra plc: A Closer Look at a UK ‘Penny Stock’ Opportunity Amid Market Weakness
U.S. and China Near Deal to Avert Rare-Earth Export Controls Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
Justin time: Justin Herbert Shields Madison Beer with Impressive Reflex at Lakers Game
Russia’s President Putin Declares Burevestnik Nuclear Cruise Missile Ready for Deployment
Giuffre’s Memoir Alleges Maxwell Claimed Sexual Act with Clooney
House Republicans Move to Strip NYC Mayoral Front-Runner Zohran Mamdani of U.S. Citizenship
Record-High Spoiled Ballots Signal Voter Discontent in Ireland’s 2025 Presidential Election
Philippines’ Taal Volcano Erupts Overnight with 2.4 km Ash Plume
Albania’s Virtual AI 'Minister' Diella Set to 'Birth' Eighty-Three Digital Assistants for MPs
Tesla Unveils Vision for Optimus V3 as ‘Biggest Product of All Time’, Including Surgical Capabilities
Francis Ford Coppola Auctions Luxury Watches After Self-Financed Film Flop
Convicted Sex Offender Mistakenly Freed by UK Prison Service Arrested in London
United States and China Begin Constructive Trade Negotiations Ahead of Trump–Xi Summit
U.S. Treasury Sanctions Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro over Drug-Trafficking Allegations
Miss USA Crowns Nebraska’s Audrey Eckert Amid Leadership Overhaul
‘I Am Not Done’: Kamala Harris Signals Possible 2028 White House Run
NBA Faces Integrity Crisis After Mass Arrests in Gambling Scandal
Swift Heist at the Louvre Sees Eight French Crown Jewels Stolen in Under Seven Minutes
U.S. Halts Trade Talks with Canada After Ontario Ad Using Reagan Voice Triggers Diplomatic Fallout
Microsoft AI CEO: ‘We’re making an AI that you can trust your kids to use’ — but can Microsoft rebuild its own trust before fixing the industry’s?
×