London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Sep 16, 2026

Less than a week after BoJo’s Brexit deal, is the UK starting to break up already?

Less than a week after BoJo’s Brexit deal, is the UK starting to break up already?

As the Republic of Ireland provides EU benefits for Northern Irish residents, and Scots express fury at elements of the Brexit agreement, it’s clear that stopping the UK breaking up is now a major headache for Boris Johnson.

The ink is barely dry on the Brexit deal and reality has bitten.

Long tailbacks of lorries have been waiting to cross The Channel, due to increased checks.

British qualifications will no longer be automatically recognised across the European Union. And British police forces have lost access to the Schengen Information System database, which they use on average 1.65 million times a day.

But there’s a bigger issue that might not be so immediately obvious as these stark realities.

The first clear indications that Brexit could spell the beginning of the end for the United Kingdom have appeared.

The Republic of Ireland has announced it will fund the European flagship student exchange programme Erasmus for Northern Irish students.

Their counterparts on the British mainland are no longer eligible for the scheme. The Irish Minister for Higher Education Simon Harris said of the arrangement, “It’s not a cost, it’s an investment.”

On the face of it, it’s a noble act for a sovereign nation to fund a better education system for citizens of another state. But it’s not the only act of Irish generosity. Dublin is also doing the same to allow Northern Ireland’s population to remain in the European Health Insurance Card scheme.

Both of these moves saw United Ireland trend on Twitter.


It’s not hard to envisage people in Northern Ireland being disillusioned with being passed around like a political football by Boris Johnson and Westminster. Their geographic separation from Great Britain has made them the Achilles heel of many Brexit plans.

But there will be very few in Northern Ireland who won’t be grateful to their southern neighbours, as they are now set to retain some benefits of European Union membership without any cost to themselves.

Although a low-key move by the Irish, it’s savvy, benevolent and shows good faith — and will only boost the Irish assimilation movement. The message is, we’re extending our hand and want to help you.

It’s a far cry from Boris Johnson’s red tape that saw supermarket chains cause panic in November by revealing they may have to slash supplies of fish, dairy products and meat to Northern Irish stores. That looks like it won’t happen now due to the deal, but the feeling of being left to twist in the wind lingers in Belfast.

The Scots, too, are also looking to exploit the post-Brexit reality. BoJo’s agreement with the EU will pass in the UK parliament because the Conservative government and the opposition, Labour, will vote for it. But the third biggest party won’t. All of the Scottish National Party’s MPs will play the only card they can.

The EU referendum was 52/48 percent in favour of leaving, but Scotland voted 62/38 against. That’s a huge swing and the SNP’s refusal to back the deal, even though it will have no actual bearing on the outcome, is a signal to the Scottish population. It’s underlining the commonly recited mantra that Westminster doesn’t care about them, and only the SNP will fight their corner.

These tactics appear to be proving successful, as recent polls show a record 58 percent now backing independence, the highest ever rate of support. They also show that the SNP is on course to win every single seat in Scotland’s parliamentary elections next year, bar one.

That would put them in an astonishing position of power and the SNP would feel entitled to demand another independence referendum, justifying it as the will of the people. It would be hard to argue against.

The SNP has also seized on the fact that the Brexit deal will result in reduced access to cod and haddock for Scottish fishing fleets. Fergus Ewing, the Scottish cabinet secretary for the rural economy, said of the deal, “This is a terrible outcome for Scotland’s coastal communities.”

In contrast, the UK’s negotiating team feels the deal will result in overall net gains for Scotland’s fishing industry. But the reality is that the agreement is so complex that there will be many caveats and loopholes the Irish or Scots will seek to exploit. And these will hurt.

It could become death by a thousand cuts for the UK, and the past few days have shown how difficult it will be for BoJo to keep the ship afloat.

Many have predicted that Brexit will define his premiership. While he was the figurehead of the Leave campaign, it was Theresa May who was in Downing Street for the vast majority of the negotiation process with the EU. BoJo only took over for the final furlong and delivered a deal that some say is less generous than what May managed to get.

But the real legacy of his premiership will be whether he is able to prevent the obliteration of the UK.

If current voting trends continue, Scotland looks nailed on to have another independence referendum, and the result could be very different next time.

Northern Ireland is already being wooed by the bigger EU nation that it shares an island with.

And Wales’ independence party Plaid Cymru wants to offer an independence referendum if it gets enough votes in May’s local elections.

If the practical realities of Brexit cause problems over the first few months of 2021, Plaid Cymru could see its support rocket as the Welsh look for a way out too.

Even if many of us are distracted by the glow of the shiny, new, long-awaited Brexit deal, it’s clear that the fight to save the UK has begun.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Health Unions Warn of Staffing Pressures as Public and Private Pay Growth Diverges
Rockstar Games Faces Tribunal Claims From 23 Former Grand Theft Auto VI Developers
UK Treasury Faces Tighter Budget Constraints as Borrowing Costs and Pension Spending Rise
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Sets Out Ten-Year Plan for Greater Public Oversight of Utilities
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Services and Technology Activity Strengthen
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland Leaders Coordinate Push for UK Constitutional Change
Police Tighten Public-Order Measures After Anti-Immigration Protests in Dover and Portsmouth
UK Ministers Pressed for Answers After US Diplomat Accused of Child Abuse Images Leaves Britain
Jaguar Land Rover Pursues NATO Defense Contracts for Defender Vehicles
British Service Member Dies in Road Accident While Deployed in Ukraine
George Osborne Calls for Britain to Rejoin EU Customs Union
Anthropic Chief Dario Amodei Urges Faster UK Action on Advanced AI Risks
UK State Pension Set for 3.9% Rise Under Triple Lock
UK Labour Market Cools as Payrolled Employment Continues to Decline
Reform UK’s £72 Million in Donations Faces Scrutiny Under Proposed Retrospective Funding Rules
UK Doctors Warn Expanded Pharmacy First Scheme Could Put Patients at Risk
British Airlines Cut Short-Haul Capacity as Jet Fuel Costs Rise
UK News Publishers Forecast 40% Search Traffic Drop as AI Overviews Expand
Axel Springer Wins Approval for £575 Million Daily Telegraph Acquisition
London Mayor Sadiq Khan Opposes Heathrow Third Runway Over Climate Targets
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland Leaders Hold Summit Seeking Greater Autonomy
UK Energy Price Cap Set to Rise to £1,723 in October
UK Treasury Warns Middle East Conflict Is Threatening Economic Growth
Labour Moves to Retrospectively Cap Overseas Political Donations After Reform UK Funding Surge
HMRC Warns Nearly Seven Million Adults Are Unclear About State Pension Entitlements
UK Parliament Passes Sovereign Grant Reform Before Conference Recess
British Rail Passengers Gain Automatic Right to Switch Operators During Disruptions
Burnham Hosts Downing Street Business Summit as UK Fiscal Pressure Builds
Labour Government Moves to Challenge £72 Million in Reform UK Crypto Donations
UK Advertising Industry Warns Wider Junk Food Rules Could Put £1 Billion in Media Spending at Risk
Cornwall Opens Devolution Talks With UK Government Over Transport and Local Services
UK Parliament Considers Sovereign Grant Reform Setting Royal Funding at £99.9 Million
Trades Union Congress Calls for Income-Based Energy Tariff Funded by Higher Bank Levy
UK Prime Minister Rejects Second Scottish Independence Referendum
House of Lords Begins Scrutiny of Bill to Lower UK Voting Age to 16
Anthropic Says Claude Was Exploited in Weapons-Related and State-Linked Cyber Activity
Institute of Directors Urges UK Government to Avoid Business Tax Increases in Autumn Budget
Rising Gilt Yields Cut UK Fiscal Headroom to About £13 Billion Ahead of Budget
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Services and Technology Activity Strengthen
UK Government Promises Clearer Student Loan Guidance After Repayment Backlash
Charities Warn Unpaid Carers May Die Before Receiving Government Compensation
Dover Unrest Prompts Review of UK Counter-Extremism Strategy
Celtic Summit Leaders Reassert Right to Pursue Independence From UK
NHS Records Busiest Summer on Record Amid Severe Heatwaves
Harrods Faces Potential £150 Million Compensation Bill Over Al Fayed Abuse Claims
UK Parliament Opens Debate on Landmark Assisted Dying Legislation
Metropolitan Police Investigate Reform UK Over Alleged Foreign Electoral Donations
UK Economy Expands 0.4% in July as AI Investment Boosts Activity
Bank of England Signals Caution on Rates as Inflation Pressures Persist
Tesco Alerts Police After Scammers Use Its Branding in AI-Generated Fraud
×