London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Sep 30, 2026

Less than a week after BoJo’s Brexit deal, is the UK starting to break up already?

Less than a week after BoJo’s Brexit deal, is the UK starting to break up already?

As the Republic of Ireland provides EU benefits for Northern Irish residents, and Scots express fury at elements of the Brexit agreement, it’s clear that stopping the UK breaking up is now a major headache for Boris Johnson.

The ink is barely dry on the Brexit deal and reality has bitten.

Long tailbacks of lorries have been waiting to cross The Channel, due to increased checks.

British qualifications will no longer be automatically recognised across the European Union. And British police forces have lost access to the Schengen Information System database, which they use on average 1.65 million times a day.

But there’s a bigger issue that might not be so immediately obvious as these stark realities.

The first clear indications that Brexit could spell the beginning of the end for the United Kingdom have appeared.

The Republic of Ireland has announced it will fund the European flagship student exchange programme Erasmus for Northern Irish students.

Their counterparts on the British mainland are no longer eligible for the scheme. The Irish Minister for Higher Education Simon Harris said of the arrangement, “It’s not a cost, it’s an investment.”

On the face of it, it’s a noble act for a sovereign nation to fund a better education system for citizens of another state. But it’s not the only act of Irish generosity. Dublin is also doing the same to allow Northern Ireland’s population to remain in the European Health Insurance Card scheme.

Both of these moves saw United Ireland trend on Twitter.


It’s not hard to envisage people in Northern Ireland being disillusioned with being passed around like a political football by Boris Johnson and Westminster. Their geographic separation from Great Britain has made them the Achilles heel of many Brexit plans.

But there will be very few in Northern Ireland who won’t be grateful to their southern neighbours, as they are now set to retain some benefits of European Union membership without any cost to themselves.

Although a low-key move by the Irish, it’s savvy, benevolent and shows good faith — and will only boost the Irish assimilation movement. The message is, we’re extending our hand and want to help you.

It’s a far cry from Boris Johnson’s red tape that saw supermarket chains cause panic in November by revealing they may have to slash supplies of fish, dairy products and meat to Northern Irish stores. That looks like it won’t happen now due to the deal, but the feeling of being left to twist in the wind lingers in Belfast.

The Scots, too, are also looking to exploit the post-Brexit reality. BoJo’s agreement with the EU will pass in the UK parliament because the Conservative government and the opposition, Labour, will vote for it. But the third biggest party won’t. All of the Scottish National Party’s MPs will play the only card they can.

The EU referendum was 52/48 percent in favour of leaving, but Scotland voted 62/38 against. That’s a huge swing and the SNP’s refusal to back the deal, even though it will have no actual bearing on the outcome, is a signal to the Scottish population. It’s underlining the commonly recited mantra that Westminster doesn’t care about them, and only the SNP will fight their corner.

These tactics appear to be proving successful, as recent polls show a record 58 percent now backing independence, the highest ever rate of support. They also show that the SNP is on course to win every single seat in Scotland’s parliamentary elections next year, bar one.

That would put them in an astonishing position of power and the SNP would feel entitled to demand another independence referendum, justifying it as the will of the people. It would be hard to argue against.

The SNP has also seized on the fact that the Brexit deal will result in reduced access to cod and haddock for Scottish fishing fleets. Fergus Ewing, the Scottish cabinet secretary for the rural economy, said of the deal, “This is a terrible outcome for Scotland’s coastal communities.”

In contrast, the UK’s negotiating team feels the deal will result in overall net gains for Scotland’s fishing industry. But the reality is that the agreement is so complex that there will be many caveats and loopholes the Irish or Scots will seek to exploit. And these will hurt.

It could become death by a thousand cuts for the UK, and the past few days have shown how difficult it will be for BoJo to keep the ship afloat.

Many have predicted that Brexit will define his premiership. While he was the figurehead of the Leave campaign, it was Theresa May who was in Downing Street for the vast majority of the negotiation process with the EU. BoJo only took over for the final furlong and delivered a deal that some say is less generous than what May managed to get.

But the real legacy of his premiership will be whether he is able to prevent the obliteration of the UK.

If current voting trends continue, Scotland looks nailed on to have another independence referendum, and the result could be very different next time.

Northern Ireland is already being wooed by the bigger EU nation that it shares an island with.

And Wales’ independence party Plaid Cymru wants to offer an independence referendum if it gets enough votes in May’s local elections.

If the practical realities of Brexit cause problems over the first few months of 2021, Plaid Cymru could see its support rocket as the Welsh look for a way out too.

Even if many of us are distracted by the glow of the shiny, new, long-awaited Brexit deal, it’s clear that the fight to save the UK has begun.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Equity Calls for UK Personality Rights to Protect Performers From AI Replication
OpenAI Pauses Advanced Model Training Following Safety Concerns
Scottish Government Proposes Replacing 32 Councils With Larger Regional Authorities
Ofgem Raises UK Household Energy Price Cap by 4% From October
UK Counter-Terrorism Police Continue Investigation After Five Arrests Near RAF Fairford
OECD Cuts UK 2027 Growth Forecast to 1%
Labour Says State Pension Triple Lock Remains Protected Through Current Parliament
Andy Burnham Pledges National Care Service With Free Social Care in England
Six Flags Permanently Shuts Landmark X2 Roller Coaster Following Safety Scandals
Metropolitan Police Rule Out Terrorism in Golders Green Stabbing Investigation
Lithium-Ion Battery Identified as Cause of Fatal Merseyside House Fire
UK Department Rejects New Sea Use Framework Due to Stakeholder Fatigue
Major Thames Water Pipe Burst Causes School Closures in London
Aldi Commits £900 Million to Expand UK Supermarket Network
Scottish Affairs Committee Warns Skills Shortages Threaten Defence Sector Expansion
Parliamentary Committee Warns Northern Ireland Budget Deadlock is Stalling Economic Growth
NHS Hospitals in England Face Severe Shortages of Essential Medications
Home Secretary Signals Major Overhaul of UK Immigration and Leave to Remain Policies
Chancellor Promises New Job Schemes Alongside Strict Fiscal Discipline
Energy Secretary Proposes Taxpayer-Funded Green Transition and National Electricity Grid
UK Government to Renationalise Avanti West Coast Railway Franchise in March
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Pledges Major Social Care and Infrastructure Reforms
Five Suspects Released on Bail Following Alleged Bomb Plot Near RAF Fairford
UK Diesel Prices Hit Record High of 199p Per Litre
Transport for Wales and Network Rail Complete Electrification of South Wales Metro
Defra Expands Incentives for Sustainable Farming and Biodiversity in England
Northern Ireland Executive Approves Funding Package to Resolve Public Sector Pay Disputes
Universities UK Warns of Financial Insolvency Risks for Higher Education Institutions
UK Prisons Activate Emergency Protocols to Manage Capacity Pressures
UK Government Establishes New Safety Standards for Frontier AI Models
Home Office Tightens Skilled Worker Visa Requirements and Dependent Rules
Ministry of Defence Restructures Royal Navy Frigate Procurement to Prevent Overruns
UK Government Mandates New Housing Targets to Address National Shortage
UK and Scottish Governments Reach Agreement on North Sea Energy Transition
NHS Launches Digital Overhaul to Reduce Surgical Backlogs in England
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates as Service Sector Inflation Persists
UK Chancellor Announces Fiscal Consolidation Measures to Stabilize National Debt
RNLI Chief Executive Condemns Misinformation and Abuse Targeting Volunteer Crews
Metropolitan Police Charge Swindon Man with Assisting Foreign Intelligence Services
British Intelligence Report Warns Environmental Collapse Threatens Global Defense Infrastructure
Conservative Party Rejects New Taxes to Fund UK Social Care Reforms
Labour Government Signals Intent to Ease Residency Restrictions for Foreign Care Workers
Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Støre Meet to Strengthen North Atlantic Defense
UK Government Plans to Revive Equity Loan Scheme to Assist First-Time Home Buyers
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Pledges Radical Reform for UK Utilities and Social Care
UK Treasury Prepares Difficult Autumn Budget Amid High Debt and Energy Volatility
Civil Aviation Authority Launches Review of Air Traffic Systems Following Digital Failure
X Reports First Increase in UK Revenues Following Advertiser Boycott
Shetland Islands Council Approves £400 Million Inter-Island Tunnel Project
Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband Warns Iran Against Hostile Activities on British Soil
×