London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Mar 13, 2026

Less than a week after BoJo’s Brexit deal, is the UK starting to break up already?

Less than a week after BoJo’s Brexit deal, is the UK starting to break up already?

As the Republic of Ireland provides EU benefits for Northern Irish residents, and Scots express fury at elements of the Brexit agreement, it’s clear that stopping the UK breaking up is now a major headache for Boris Johnson.

The ink is barely dry on the Brexit deal and reality has bitten.

Long tailbacks of lorries have been waiting to cross The Channel, due to increased checks.

British qualifications will no longer be automatically recognised across the European Union. And British police forces have lost access to the Schengen Information System database, which they use on average 1.65 million times a day.

But there’s a bigger issue that might not be so immediately obvious as these stark realities.

The first clear indications that Brexit could spell the beginning of the end for the United Kingdom have appeared.

The Republic of Ireland has announced it will fund the European flagship student exchange programme Erasmus for Northern Irish students.

Their counterparts on the British mainland are no longer eligible for the scheme. The Irish Minister for Higher Education Simon Harris said of the arrangement, “It’s not a cost, it’s an investment.”

On the face of it, it’s a noble act for a sovereign nation to fund a better education system for citizens of another state. But it’s not the only act of Irish generosity. Dublin is also doing the same to allow Northern Ireland’s population to remain in the European Health Insurance Card scheme.

Both of these moves saw United Ireland trend on Twitter.


It’s not hard to envisage people in Northern Ireland being disillusioned with being passed around like a political football by Boris Johnson and Westminster. Their geographic separation from Great Britain has made them the Achilles heel of many Brexit plans.

But there will be very few in Northern Ireland who won’t be grateful to their southern neighbours, as they are now set to retain some benefits of European Union membership without any cost to themselves.

Although a low-key move by the Irish, it’s savvy, benevolent and shows good faith — and will only boost the Irish assimilation movement. The message is, we’re extending our hand and want to help you.

It’s a far cry from Boris Johnson’s red tape that saw supermarket chains cause panic in November by revealing they may have to slash supplies of fish, dairy products and meat to Northern Irish stores. That looks like it won’t happen now due to the deal, but the feeling of being left to twist in the wind lingers in Belfast.

The Scots, too, are also looking to exploit the post-Brexit reality. BoJo’s agreement with the EU will pass in the UK parliament because the Conservative government and the opposition, Labour, will vote for it. But the third biggest party won’t. All of the Scottish National Party’s MPs will play the only card they can.

The EU referendum was 52/48 percent in favour of leaving, but Scotland voted 62/38 against. That’s a huge swing and the SNP’s refusal to back the deal, even though it will have no actual bearing on the outcome, is a signal to the Scottish population. It’s underlining the commonly recited mantra that Westminster doesn’t care about them, and only the SNP will fight their corner.

These tactics appear to be proving successful, as recent polls show a record 58 percent now backing independence, the highest ever rate of support. They also show that the SNP is on course to win every single seat in Scotland’s parliamentary elections next year, bar one.

That would put them in an astonishing position of power and the SNP would feel entitled to demand another independence referendum, justifying it as the will of the people. It would be hard to argue against.

The SNP has also seized on the fact that the Brexit deal will result in reduced access to cod and haddock for Scottish fishing fleets. Fergus Ewing, the Scottish cabinet secretary for the rural economy, said of the deal, “This is a terrible outcome for Scotland’s coastal communities.”

In contrast, the UK’s negotiating team feels the deal will result in overall net gains for Scotland’s fishing industry. But the reality is that the agreement is so complex that there will be many caveats and loopholes the Irish or Scots will seek to exploit. And these will hurt.

It could become death by a thousand cuts for the UK, and the past few days have shown how difficult it will be for BoJo to keep the ship afloat.

Many have predicted that Brexit will define his premiership. While he was the figurehead of the Leave campaign, it was Theresa May who was in Downing Street for the vast majority of the negotiation process with the EU. BoJo only took over for the final furlong and delivered a deal that some say is less generous than what May managed to get.

But the real legacy of his premiership will be whether he is able to prevent the obliteration of the UK.

If current voting trends continue, Scotland looks nailed on to have another independence referendum, and the result could be very different next time.

Northern Ireland is already being wooed by the bigger EU nation that it shares an island with.

And Wales’ independence party Plaid Cymru wants to offer an independence referendum if it gets enough votes in May’s local elections.

If the practical realities of Brexit cause problems over the first few months of 2021, Plaid Cymru could see its support rocket as the Welsh look for a way out too.

Even if many of us are distracted by the glow of the shiny, new, long-awaited Brexit deal, it’s clear that the fight to save the UK has begun.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Asian Energy Security Tested as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Threatens Oil Supplies
Iran Sets Three Conditions for Ending Regional War as Diplomatic Efforts Intensify
Tesla Secures Approval to Supply Electricity Directly to Homes Across Britain
Prince William Delivers Tribute to Australia’s Naval Alliance Amid Renewed Royal Spotlight on the Country
UK Foreign Secretary Travels to Saudi Arabia to Reinforce Support for Regional Allies
Putin’s ‘Hidden Hand’ May Be Assisting Iran in Conflict With Trump, UK Defence Secretary Warns
UK Sets April Deadline for Tech Platforms to Strengthen Online Protections for Children
Elon Musk Moves Into Britain’s Energy Market as Tesla Wins Licence to Supply Power
UK Watchdog Warns Fuel Retailers Against Profiteering Amid Iran War Price Surge
Report Claims Iran Used UK Charity Network to Expand Influence
United States and United Kingdom Establish Joint Standards for Counter-Drone Technology
Iran May Be Laying Naval Mines in Strait of Hormuz, UK Warns Amid Escalating Gulf Tensions
US Deploys Bunker-Buster Bombs to UK Airbase as Iran Conflict Intensifies
British Troops in Iraq Intercept Iranian Drones Targeting Coalition Base
Release of Mandelson Files Raises Tensions as UK Seeks Stable Relations With Donald Trump
UK Documents Reveal Starmer Was Warned About Mandelson’s Epstein Links Before Ambassador Appointment
Nearly Five Hundred UK Mortgage Deals Withdrawn in Two Days as Market Volatility Forces Lenders to Reprice
Three Cargo Ships Hit Near Iran as Attacks Spread to Strategic Strait of Hormuz
Why British Police Repeatedly Declined to Investigate Jeffrey Epstein’s UK Links
UK Parliament Ends Hereditary Seats in House of Lords, Closing Chapter on Centuries of Aristocratic Lawmaking
EU and UK Urge Israel to Act Against Rising West Bank Settler Violence Amid Regional Tensions
US Senator John Kennedy Says Keir Starmer Should Not Be Trusted for Military Advice Amid Iran War Debate
UK High Court Rejects Attempt to Revive Terrorism Charge Against Kneecap Rapper
Revolut Secures Full UK Banking Licence After Multi-Year Regulatory Wait
Kentucky’s Bench Boost Powers Wildcats Past LSU in SEC Tournament Opener
British Couple Die After Being Pulled From Water at Australian Beach During Family Visit
Global Energy Agency Announces Record Release of 400 Million Barrels to Stabilize Oil Markets Amid Hormuz Disruption
British Airways Suspends UK Repatriation Flights as Middle East Travel Disruption Deepens
US Forces Prepare Ordnance at RAF Fairford as Strategic Bombers Deploy for Middle East Operations
Nigel Farage Faces Criticism After Saying Britain Should Stay Out of Iran War
Landmark UK Trial Begins Over Sony’s PlayStation Store Pricing
UK High Court Rejects Bid to Challenge Britain’s Chagos Islands Agreement With Mauritius
Finnish Duo Triumphs in England’s Annual Wife-Carrying Race, Winning a Barrel of Ale
How U.S. and UK National Security Strategies Are Reshaping the Global Business Landscape
Green Party Gains Momentum as Labour Shifts Toward the Political Centre
Royal Navy Destroyer HMS Dragon Sets Sail for Eastern Mediterranean as Regional Tensions Rise
UK Homebuilder Persimmon Warns Iran Conflict Could Dent Property Buyer Confidence
Roman Abramovich Signals Legal Fight if UK Seeks to Seize Chelsea Sale Funds
UK Ready to Back Emergency Oil Reserve Release as Middle East Conflict Pushes Prices Higher
Study of 40,000 Articles Sparks Debate Over Alleged Anti-Muslim Bias in UK Media
US and UK Army Chiefs Strengthen Cooperation on the Future of Armored Warfare
Britain’s Search for the Next ARM Intensifies as Startups and Investors Target the Semiconductor Frontier
Three US Strategic Bombers Arrive at RAF Fairford as Iran Conflict Intensifies
Cancer Death Rates in the UK Fall to the Lowest Level on Record
UK Government Bond Yields Retreat Slightly After Sharp Spike Triggered by Middle East Conflict
UK Chancellor Warns Middle East War Could Push Inflation Higher
UK Prime Minister Warns Iran Conflict Could Drive Up Prices and Threaten Economic Stability
Trump Declines UK Offer to Deploy Aircraft Carriers to Middle East Amid Iran Conflict
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle to Return to Australia After Seven Years for Philanthropic and Business Engagements
UK Government Signals Independence From Washington as Cooper Says Britain Does Not Agree With Trump on Every Issue
×