London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Jul 11, 2025

Laura Kuenssberg: After local election upheaval, what's next for the parties?

Laura Kuenssberg: After local election upheaval, what's next for the parties?

Swap the velvet cloaks, jewels, implausibly well-behaved choirboys and animals for ballot boxes, soggy rosettes, clipboards and leisure centres. We are watching one transfer of power on Saturday. Election results around England this week suggest one of a different kind is well under way.

The Conservatives got a kicking, Labour made good progress and Ed Davey's tractor got the Lib Dems' wheels turning again (sorry). So what's next?

When the gap in the opinion polls between the Tories and Labour had been tightening in recent weeks, some Conservatives had been wondering aloud whether the prospects for them were not as disastrous as they'd feared. Real votes have put a dampener on that.

It does not seem likely, though, that MPs are going to start howling in pain publicly, or suggesting a change at the top, despite a few noises from predictable quarters. One former minister says they are all "tired and fed up, but if you put your head above the parapet and moan, you just make it worse".

The atmosphere in the party may then seem - outwardly, at least - quite calm. After the last few years, an unhappy peace is a political achievement of sorts, but don't mistake it for satisfaction with the leadership.

The former minister, not a regular critic of Mr Sunak, says it's one of "resigned depression". So what might the PM do to cheer it all up?

Expect relentless focus on - you guessed it - the five promises he made. Perhaps, one source suggests, there may be a reshuffle before the summer to line up the team for a future general election before the party conference in the autumn.

Amid the Coronation celebrations, Rishi Sunak had cause for concern about a different kind of transfer of power


But it's worth a bet that, before too long, Tory HQ will start using the c-word a lot - coalition. The way the results break down suggest that Labour is well ahead - more of that in a moment - but they can't be certain that they would have enough MPs to control the Commons on their own.

Don't be surprised, then, if the Tories start asking questions about who Labour might work with, to recreate previous campaign conversations about "coalitions of chaos".

The situation is already being used to campaign by the SNP, using the message on social media that "election experts predict the next general election is likely to see a hung parliament - this means the SNP holding the balance of power, so ensure we kick the Tories out".

Right now there is no way, repeat, no way that we can be sure what the situation will be at the next general election. But the tussle for Labour over whether they could win on their own is already under way and a Conservative source reckons they'll "hammer it at every opportunity".

The numbers from Thursday's local election in England do suggest that if everyone in the country voted in a general election this week Labour would not have had quite enough backing to get to Number 10 on their own. There was support for the Lib Dems too.

But Labour is already pushing a different message - the line they pumped out yesterday was to claim they are on track for a majority.

The last thing Labour leader Keir Starmer's party might want this far away from a general election is to get sucked into a debate about how he could govern and with whom if there were a hung parliament.

Sir Keir Starmer's supporters say the results vindicate him, but Labour wants to avoid debate about a hung parliament


The leader's backers reckon the results this week are instead a vindication of his whole approach, and they need to keep on keeping on - fleshing out their plans, his "missions", as the months go by and presenting themselves as hard-working winners.

The results make it easier to argue down those on the left who have grumbled that he's not radical enough, not bold enough.

The internal fights aren't over, but the Labour leader has more evidence this week that his plans are bearing fruit, particularly when you look at the parts of the election map that turned red.

Lastly, what's next for the Lib Dems, once their celebrations of their results have faded?

Well, opportunity, but also risk. The issues they picked in the campaign worked: When they are "brazen and bold", one of their MPs said, they benefited from "anger with Boris Johnson, and anger with everything".

There are 80 Westminster seats where they are in second place to the Conservatives. But experienced, wise heads caution about suddenly thinking they can sweep them all yellow.

The Lib Dems are still a small party, resources are an issue, and they have a "history of over-stretching', the MP warns, so expect them to proceed with some caution.

Sir Ed Davey toasted Lib Dem success in Windsor and elsewhere, but party sources say it won't go to their heads


"We won't let this go to our heads," another party source explains. There will be celebrations this weekend maybe, and perhaps the party's list of target seats might get a little longer. But it'd be a mistake to imagine that one set of local results completely transforms the landscape for them - or any of the parties.

The snapshot from Thursday is a valuable confirmation when it comes to our two main parties that Labour is well on its way - unimaginable in the ruins of 2019 - and the Conservatives are in deep, deep trouble.

Real votes, not opinion polls, are the ones that matter most.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Grok Chatbot Faces International Backlash for Antisemitic Content
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
NVIDIA Achieves Historic Milestone as First Company Valued at $4 Trillion
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Linda Yaccarino Steps Down as CEO of X After Two Years
US Imposes New Tariffs on Brazilian Exports Amid Political Tensions
Azerbaijan and Armenia are on the brink of a historic peace deal.
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Weinstein Victim’s Lawyer Says MeToo Movement Still Strong
U.S. Enacts Sweeping Tax and Spending Legislation Amid Trade Policy Shifts
Football Mourns as Diogo Jota and Brother André Silva Laid to Rest in Portugal
Labour Expected to Withdraw Support for Special Needs Funding Model
Leaked Audio Reveals Tory Aide Defending DEI Record
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
London Stock Exchange Faces Historic Low in Initial Public Offerings
A new online platform has emerged in the United Kingdom, specifically targeting Muslim men seeking virgin brides
Trump Celebrates Independence Day with B-2 Flyover and Signs Controversial Legislation
Boris Johnson Urges Conservatives to Ignore Farage
SNP Ordered to Update Single-Sex Space Guidance Within Days
Starmer Set to Reject Calls for Wealth Taxes
Stolen Century-Old Rolls-Royce Recovered After Hotel Theft
Macron Presses Starmer to Recognise Palestinian State
Labour Delayed Palestine Action Ban Over Riot Concerns
Swinney’s Tax Comments ‘Offensive to Scots’, Say Tories
High Street Retailers to Enforce Bans on Serial Shoplifters
Music Banned by Henry VIII to Be Performed After 500 Years
Steve Coogan Says Working Class Is Being ‘Ethnically Cleansed’
Home Office Admits Uncertainty Over Visa Overstayer Numbers
JD Vance Questions Mandelson Over Reform Party’s Rising Popularity
Macron to Receive Windsor Carriage Ride in Royal Gesture
Labour Accused of ‘Hammering’ Scots During First Year in Power
BBC Head of Music Stood Down Amid Bob Vylan Controversy
Corbyn Eyes Hard-Left Challenge to Starmer’s Leadership
London Tube Trains Suspended After Major Fire Erupts Nearby
Richard Kemp: I Felt Safer in Israel Under Attack Than in the UK
Cyclist Says Police Cited Human Rights Act for Riding No-Handed
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Musk Battles to Protect Tesla Amid Trump Policy Threats
Air France-KLM Acquires Majority Stake in Scandinavian Airlines
UK Educators Sound Alarm on Declining Child Literacy
Shein Fined €40 Million in France Over Misleading Discounts
Brazil’s Lula Visits Kirchner During Argentina House Arrest
Trump Scores Legislative Win as House Passes Tax Reform Bill
Keir Starmer Faces Criticism After Rocky First Year in Power
DJI Launches Heavy-Duty Coaxial Quadcopter with 80 kg Lift Capacity
U.S. Senate Approves Major Legislation Dubbed the 'Big Beautiful Bill'
×