London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Oct 07, 2025

Johnson ‘will have to call second referendum if he fails to win majority’

Johnson ‘will have to call second referendum if he fails to win majority’

With Opinium poll showing his lead narrowing, academics warn PM could need support of minority parties for Brexit deal
Boris Johnson could be forced into holding a second referendum on Brexit next summer if he fails to win a majority in the House of Commons but remains as prime minister, according to a new report by academics at University College London.

The detailed analysis of how a referendum could be triggered, how long it would take, and how it would work concludes that a second public vote – in which the options would most likely be Johnson’s deal versus remaining in the EU – would be very much on the cards if the Conservatives are denied a majority, or are returned with only a very slender one, on 12 December.

The report – by UCL’s constitution unit in collaboration with research initiative UK in a Changing Europe – is a reminder of the high stakes, and high risk, of the election to Johnson. Although the latest Opinium poll for the Observer gives the Tories a 15-point lead over Labour with less than a fortnight until polling day, the gap has narrowed by four points since a week ago.

The UCL work comes as independent analysis suggests that crashing out of the EU next year would cause the national debt to rise by more than £220bn over the next five years – equivalent to an extra £8,000 of debt per household. The figure, which is more than this year’s government budget for health, social care, schools and local government combined, was contained in research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and highlighted by the Liberal Democrats.

Under Johnson’s plans, Britain will not extend the transition period with the European Union beyond the end of 2020, even if no trade deal is in place. The Lib Dems said the IFS research showed that, compared to its plan of stopping Brexit, crashing out would make national debt £221bn larger. Liberal Democrat deputy leader Ed Davey said: “If Boris Johnson gets his way and crashes us out of the EU without a deal at the end of 2020, he will create a tidal wave of debt that would jeopardise funding for our schools, hospitals and vital public services.”

Johnson has always insisted that he would never hold a second referendum and believes it would represent a betrayal of the 17.4 million people who voted to leave the EU in 2016. However, the UCL team says that, without a majority and any realistic prospect of forming a durable coalition, the political reality may be that his government would “face a choice between introducing referendum legislation, or being unable to proceed with its Brexit deal”.

With the Democratic Unionist party opposed to the deal Johnson struck with Brussels, his prospects of forming a durable coalition to push Brexit through are likely to be limited. “Should the Conservatives fall short of an overall majority and be unable to form a stable alliance with the Brexit party or Northern Ireland’s unionist parties to block such a move, other parties and independent MPs would seek to use what parliamentary strength they had to pursue a referendum,” the report says. “The likeliest route is again for Johnson to reintroduce his EU (Withdrawal Agreement) bill, but for other parties to introduce amendments making its approval conditional on support for the deal in a public vote.”

Labour has said that it will renegotiate the Brexit deal within three months and hold a referendum, with an option to remain in the EU, within six months, if it wins the election.

The Liberal Democrats’ policy is to revoke article 50 and scrap Brexit altogether in the highly unlikely event that they form the next government.

The report says that the minimum time necessary to hold the referendum would be 22 weeks, making Labour’s timetable to renegotiate and hold a public vote within six months “very challenging” to deliver.

Before a referendum can take place, the UK parliament must pass primary legislation to give effect to the plans. Key issues that need to be included are the referendum question, the franchise, conduct rules for the vote, and the date on which it will be held.

During the bill’s passage the Electoral Commission has to “assess the intelligibility” of the referendum question – a process that takes about 12 weeks and is undertaken before the bill has passed its Commons stages.

While the report casts serious doubt on Labour’s referendum timetable, it says that “if a minority Conservative government found itself forced to hold a confirmatory referendum in order to pass its deal, such a referendum could probably be held by May or June 2020”.

Last week Johnson ruled out granting permission for a second vote on Brexit or Scottish independence in the event of a hung parliament. Speaking at the launch of the Scottish Conservatives’ manifesto in Fife, he said it was important to “honour democracy” and that backing second referendums “would be bad for the country”.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Three Scientists Awarded Nobel Prize in Medicine for Discovery of Immune Self-Tolerance Mechanism
OpenAI and AMD Forge Landmark AI-Chip Alliance with Equity Option
Munich Airport Reopens After Second Drone Shutdown
France Names New Government Amid Political Crisis
Trump Stands Firm in Shutdown Showdown and Declares War on Drug Cartels — Turning Crisis into Opportunity
Surge of U.S. Billionaires Transforms London’s Peninsula Apartments into Ultra-Luxury Stronghold
Pro Europe and Anti-War Babiš Poised to Return to Power After Czech Parliamentary Vote
Jeff Bezos Calls AI Surge a ‘Good’ Bubble, Urges Focus on Lasting Innovation
Japan’s Ruling Party Chooses Sanae Takaichi, Clearing Path to First Female Prime Minister
Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Sentenced to Fifty Months in Prison Following Prostitution Conviction
Taylor Swift’s ‘Showgirl’ Launch Extends Billion-Dollar Empire
Trump Administration Launches “TrumpRx” Plan to Enable Direct Drug Sales at Deep Discounts
Trump Announces Intention to Impose 100 Percent Tariff on Foreign-Made Films
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Singapore and Hong Kong Vie to Dominate Asia’s Rising Gold Trade
Trump Organization Teams with Saudi Developer on $1 Billion Trump Plaza in Jeddah
Manhattan Sees Surge in Office-to-Housing Conversions, Highest Since 2008
Switzerland and U.S. Issue Joint Assurance Against Currency Manipulation
Electronic Arts to Be Taken Private in Historic $55 Billion Buyout
Thomas Jacob Sanford Named as Suspect in Deadly Michigan Church Shooting and Arson
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
New York Man Arrested After On-Air Confession to 2017 Parents’ Murders
U.S. Defense Chief Orders Sudden Summit of Hundreds of Generals and Admirals
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
Trump Claims FBI Planted 274 Agents at Capitol Riot, Citing Unverified Reports
India: Internet Suspended in Bareilly Amid Communal Clashes Between Muslims and Hindus
Supreme Court Extends Freeze on Nearly $5 Billion in U.S. Foreign Aid at Trump’s Request
Archaeologists Recover Statues and Temples from 2,000-Year-Old Sunken City off Alexandria
China Deploys 2,000 Workers to Spain to Build Major EV Battery Factory, Raising European Dependence
Speed Takes Over: How Drive-Through Coffee Chains Are Rewriting U.S. Coffee Culture
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Ringo Starr Champions Enduring Beatles Legacy While Debuting Las Vegas Art Show
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Colombian President Petro Vows to Mobilize Volunteers for Gaza and Joins List of Fighters
FBI Removes Agents Who Kneeled at 2020 Protest, Citing Breach of Professional Conduct
Trump Alleges ‘Triple Sabotage’ at United Nations After Escalator and Teleprompter Failures
Shock in France: 5 Years in Prison for Former President Nicolas Sarkozy
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
BNP Paribas Abandons Ban on 'Controversial Weapons' Financing Amid Europe’s Defence Push
Typhoon Ragasa Leaves Trail of Destruction Across East Asia Before Making Landfall in China
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Big Banks Rebuild in Hong Kong as Deal Volume Surges
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Arnault Denounces Proposed Wealth Tax as Threat to French Economy
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Denmark Investigates Drone Incursion, Does Not Rule Out Russian Involvement
Lilly CEO Warns UK Is ‘Worst Country in Europe’ for Drug Prices, Pulls Back Investment
Nigel Farage Emerges as Central Force in British Politics with Reform UK Surge
×