London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Jun 17, 2026

IMF warns rising prices will be worse in UK

IMF warns rising prices will be worse in UK

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has doubled down on criticism of the chancellor's mini-budget, days after warning it will fuel rising prices.

The body, which works to stabilise economic growth, admitted tax cuts announced by Kwasi Kwarteng would boost growth in the short-term.

But it said the cuts would "complicate the fight" against soaring prices.

It expects high prices to last longer in the UK with only Slovakia out of the eurozone set to see higher inflation.

Inflation, which measures how the cost of living changes over time, is expected to peak at about 11.3% before the end of the year in the UK, according to the IMF's latest assessment of the global economy.

In each of the next two years, it expects price rises will average at about 9% - far above the Bank of England's target of 2%.

Although the UK economy is set to grow the fastest of the major economies included in the G7 group this year, it is projected to grind to a near-halt next year, with it expanding by just 0.3%.

The most recent figures included in the report by the influential financial institution do not fully, however, take into account the UK chancellor's recent mini-budget.


'Steady hand'


After Mr Kwarteng unveiled plans for huge tax cuts in the UK, the IMF criticised the plans warning they were likely to increase inequality and add to pressures pushing up prices.

It was an unusually outspoken statement from the IMF, which has a key role in acting as an early economic warning system.

The IMF said it understood the government's mini-budget aimed to boost growth, but it said that the tax cuts could speed up the pace of price rises, which the UK's central bank, the Bank of England, is trying to bring down.

Downing Street defended the chancellor's plans, with the Prime Minister's official spokesperson saying its policies aimed "to support British people at a time of global high prices" and said the IMF report showed "the global challenges that countries are facing".


The IMF warned the global economy was facing a downturn with "the worst yet to come" as war in Ukraine helps push prices higher around the globe.

"For many people 2023 will feel like a recession," it warned.

It said governments and central banks globally had to work together to help people through the turmoil.

The IMF's Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told the BBC: "Imagine a car with two drivers at the front and each of them has a steering wheel - and one wants to go left and the other wants to go right."

He added: "One is the central bank trying to cool off the economy so that price pressures will ease, and the other one wants to spend more to support families... it's probably not going to work very well."

In the UK, the chancellor has already said he will bring forward his economic plan where he will spell out how he plans to pay for the tax cuts and provide an independent forecast on the UK economy's prospects, a move welcomed by the IMF.

However on Tuesday, government borrowing costs remained close to the levels seen at the height of the market turmoil last month despite fresh action from the Bank of England to try and stabilise financial markets.

The IMF also cautioned that governments would need to protect the least well-off from the impact of higher prices.

Poorer households often spend relatively more than others on food, heating, and fuel, it pointed out - all areas that have seen steep price rises as energy and grain exports have been restricted after the invasion of Ukraine.

And countries that are reliable on Russian gas in Europe are being hit particularly badly. Germany's economy, for example, is now predicted to contract next year.


Meanwhile, Russia's economy is expected to contract by 2.3% next year, the biggest fall of all the nations included in the projections.

Speaking on Monday, IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva noted that growth was also being dragged down in China by continued Covid restrictions, while in the US rising interest rates were "starting to bite".

At the first in-person meetings between the IMF and the World Bank since the pandemic, she said countries could "reduce the pain ahead of us in 2023" by acting together.

She added that the IMF will be pushing for major economies to carry on with their efforts to bring down the cost of living, even if they have a negative impact on economic growth.

If they don't do enough, she said, "we are in trouble. We cannot afford inflation to be a runaway train."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Government Advances New Airport Slot Rules to Ease Airline Operating Constraints
BBC Opens Flagship Science-Fiction Franchise to Competitive Production Bids
Chancellor Meets City Leaders Amid Concerns Over Gilt Market Liquidity
Rathbones Shares Fall Seventeen Percent After Regulatory Review Reveals Compliance Failings
United Kingdom Joins Group of Seven Initiative Using Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Computing for Cancer Research
Parliament Debates Doubling Tax Allowance for Pensioners After Major Public Petition
Measles Cases Exceed Seven Hundred in London and the West Midlands
British Military Leadership Faces Parliamentary Scrutiny After Defence Secretary's Sudden Resignation
House of Lords Begins Debate on Steel Industry Nationalisation Legislation
Parliament Advances Bill to Abolish NHS England and Create Single Patient Records
Parliament Fast-Tracks National Security Bill to Expand Powers Against Foreign Threats
United Kingdom and European Union Set July Summit to Deepen Post-Brexit Cooperation
United Kingdom Imposes Seventy New Sanctions on Russia and Expands Support for Ukraine's Nuclear Sector
United Kingdom Announces Social Media Ban for Children Under Sixteen
0British Government Investigates Reports of Russian Warship Firing Warning Shots Near Isle of Wight
UK Supreme Court Revises Legal Definition of Deprivation of Liberty
King’s Birthday Honours Recognise Contributions Across Science, Culture and Public Service
UK Ministry of Defence Reports Interdiction of Russian Shadow Fleet Vessel
UK and US Launch Joint Regulatory Programme for Medicines and Healthcare Products
Solicitor General Refers Murder Sentence to Court of Appeal Under Unduly Lenient Scheme
UK Launches £1.6 Million Mobile Museum Initiative to Expand Cultural Access
Judicial Pay Structure Undergoes Government Review Following Senior Recommendations
Government Confirms Nearly 180 New Youth Hubs Across the United Kingdom
UK Government Expands Careers Support Through Partnership with LinkedIn
Digital News Report Highlights Growing Global Concern Over AI and Information Overload
UK Chancellor Reaffirms Fiscal Discipline and Borrowing Reduction Strategy
UK Government Invests £219 Million in Sustainable Aviation Fuel Development
Rolls-Royce Small Modular Reactors Secures Major Swedish Export Contract
Government Confirms Locations for Nearly 180 Youth Hubs Across Great Britain
UK Government Partners with LinkedIn to Expand Employment Support Services
Reuters Institute Report Flags Rising Public Anxiety Over News and Information Overload
UK Government Commits £219 Million to Expand Sustainable Aviation Fuel Industry
Chancellor Convenes Market Engagement Group to Assess UK Economic Outlook and Productivity Risks
Rolls-Royce Wins Multibillion-Pound Swedish Contract for Small Modular Nuclear Reactors
Government to Ban Social Media Access for Under-Sixteens Across the United Kingdom
Government Approves Fast-Tracked Broadcast Merger Reshaping UK's Media Landscape
Resignation of Defence Secretary John Healey Triggers Debate Over UK Military Strategy
Britain Intensifies Diplomatic Efforts to Support US-Iran Ceasefire
Bank of England Faces Tough Interest Rate Choices After Economic Contraction
Belfast Sees Second Day of Anti-Migrant Riots as Police Deploy Water Cannons
UK Economy Shrinks in April as Energy Price Shocks Weigh on Growth
UK to Ban Social Media Access for Children Under 16 From 2027
UK Parliament Opens Week of Fast-Tracked Security and Infrastructure Legislation
Northern Ireland Projects £21 Million Boost From Major Cultural and Sporting Events
UK and Japan Sign Technology Security Pact to Strengthen AI and Supply Chain Cooperation
UK Welcomes US-Iran Peace Breakthrough Aimed at Restoring Strait of Hormuz Shipping
British Forces Intercept Russian Shadow Fleet Oil Tanker in English Channel Sanctions Operation
UK to Ban Social Media for Under-16s Under Landmark Online Safety Expansion
Anti-Immigrant Riots Spread Across Belfast, Raising Security Concerns
Ministry of Defence Opens Europe's Largest Drone Testing Facility in Swindon
×