London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Wednesday, Jul 29, 2026

IMF warns rising prices will be worse in UK

IMF warns rising prices will be worse in UK

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has doubled down on criticism of the chancellor's mini-budget, days after warning it will fuel rising prices.

The body, which works to stabilise economic growth, admitted tax cuts announced by Kwasi Kwarteng would boost growth in the short-term.

But it said the cuts would "complicate the fight" against soaring prices.

It expects high prices to last longer in the UK with only Slovakia out of the eurozone set to see higher inflation.

Inflation, which measures how the cost of living changes over time, is expected to peak at about 11.3% before the end of the year in the UK, according to the IMF's latest assessment of the global economy.

In each of the next two years, it expects price rises will average at about 9% - far above the Bank of England's target of 2%.

Although the UK economy is set to grow the fastest of the major economies included in the G7 group this year, it is projected to grind to a near-halt next year, with it expanding by just 0.3%.

The most recent figures included in the report by the influential financial institution do not fully, however, take into account the UK chancellor's recent mini-budget.


'Steady hand'


After Mr Kwarteng unveiled plans for huge tax cuts in the UK, the IMF criticised the plans warning they were likely to increase inequality and add to pressures pushing up prices.

It was an unusually outspoken statement from the IMF, which has a key role in acting as an early economic warning system.

The IMF said it understood the government's mini-budget aimed to boost growth, but it said that the tax cuts could speed up the pace of price rises, which the UK's central bank, the Bank of England, is trying to bring down.

Downing Street defended the chancellor's plans, with the Prime Minister's official spokesperson saying its policies aimed "to support British people at a time of global high prices" and said the IMF report showed "the global challenges that countries are facing".


The IMF warned the global economy was facing a downturn with "the worst yet to come" as war in Ukraine helps push prices higher around the globe.

"For many people 2023 will feel like a recession," it warned.

It said governments and central banks globally had to work together to help people through the turmoil.

The IMF's Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told the BBC: "Imagine a car with two drivers at the front and each of them has a steering wheel - and one wants to go left and the other wants to go right."

He added: "One is the central bank trying to cool off the economy so that price pressures will ease, and the other one wants to spend more to support families... it's probably not going to work very well."

In the UK, the chancellor has already said he will bring forward his economic plan where he will spell out how he plans to pay for the tax cuts and provide an independent forecast on the UK economy's prospects, a move welcomed by the IMF.

However on Tuesday, government borrowing costs remained close to the levels seen at the height of the market turmoil last month despite fresh action from the Bank of England to try and stabilise financial markets.

The IMF also cautioned that governments would need to protect the least well-off from the impact of higher prices.

Poorer households often spend relatively more than others on food, heating, and fuel, it pointed out - all areas that have seen steep price rises as energy and grain exports have been restricted after the invasion of Ukraine.

And countries that are reliable on Russian gas in Europe are being hit particularly badly. Germany's economy, for example, is now predicted to contract next year.


Meanwhile, Russia's economy is expected to contract by 2.3% next year, the biggest fall of all the nations included in the projections.

Speaking on Monday, IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva noted that growth was also being dragged down in China by continued Covid restrictions, while in the US rising interest rates were "starting to bite".

At the first in-person meetings between the IMF and the World Bank since the pandemic, she said countries could "reduce the pain ahead of us in 2023" by acting together.

She added that the IMF will be pushing for major economies to carry on with their efforts to bring down the cost of living, even if they have a negative impact on economic growth.

If they don't do enough, she said, "we are in trouble. We cannot afford inflation to be a runaway train."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Trump says Israel ‘would not survive’ without US
France Evacuates Atlantic Coast Resorts as Wildfire Risk Rises Again
Magnitude 7.1 Earthquake Strikes Kumamoto as Rescuers Search Collapsed Buildings
OpenAI Faces Demands for Full Disclosure After Models Breach Hugging Face
Nvidia Reportedly Takes Vast Texas Data-Centre Lease to Underwrite AI Expansion
Royal Collection Trust Income Falls as Palace Visits Retreat From Record Highs
FIFA’s Private-Investment Plan for World Cup Rights Draws European Revolt
Ministers Examine Social-Care Levy as Burnham Seeks Funding Settlement
UK Attractions Sector Forecast to Add £587 Million in Visitor Spending
England Coast Path Extends With New Suffolk Estuary Walking Route
Attorney General Wins Longer Jail Term for Fatal Dangerous Driving Case
Andrew and Tristan Tate Remain in U.S. Custody Pending UK Extradition
Royal Fleet Auxiliary Workers Secure Above-Inflation Pay Deal
Prime Minister Seeks Cross-Party Agreement on Social Care Reform
Court Upholds Competition Ruling Against Drugmakers Over Hydrocortisone Prices
UK Unveils Major Technical Education Reform for Secondary Schools
UK Judge Rebukes Home Office Over AI-Generated Errors in Asylum Case
UK and Ukraine Agree to Share Electronic Warfare Technology
Apple Briefly Crosses Five Trillion Dollar Valuation as Investors Retreat From AI Bets
Badenoch Offers Tory Votes to Keep Serious Offenders in Prison
Why Americans Queue for $15 Ice Cream and a $100 Caviar Pint
Another AI Genius Left the United States — and Silicon Valley Is Starting to Worry
Shein Reports $99mn Loss as Trade Barriers Test Low-Cost Model
CXMT Gains 466% in China’s Biggest IPO Since 2010
Amazon Seeks Approval for 5,105-Satellite Mobile Network
Burnham Puts School-to-Work Reform at Centre of Welfare Strategy
Johnson & Johnson Agrees to $5.5 Billion Talc Lawsuit Settlement
EU AI Act Shapes Global Corporate Standards, Study Finds
UK-Japan Relations Expected to Deepen Under Burnham Government
Burnham Signals Tough Decisions on Council Tax Reform
UK Inflation Slows to 2.6% in June
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75%
Prime Minister Burnham Opens Talks With Business Leaders on Economic Growth
Government Launches 'Number Ten North' to Drive UK Devolution
Labour Regains Poll Lead After Burnham's First Weeks in Office
Prime Minister Burnham Rules Out Early UK General Election Before 2029
Burnham Rules Out Replacing Council Tax and Stamp Duty
Fresh Heatwave Threatens to Rekindle France’s Historic Wildfire Crisis
The Burnham government is seeking to establish its credibility through ambitious social care reform while maintaining fiscal discipline and public confidence in the National Health Service. Labour's early improvement in opinion polls provides political momentum, but sustained support will depend on delivering tangible policy outcomes. Britain continues to reinforce its role in European security through long-term support for Ukraine, while climate-related risks, including increasingly severe wildfires across England and Scotland, are becoming a more prominent national resilience challenge alongside economic uncertainty.
United Kingdom Economy Remains Exposed to Global Energy Risks
Prime Minister Dismisses Calls for an Early General Election
Scottish Wildfires Continue to Stretch Emergency Services
United Kingdom Faces Rising Wildfire Risk as Heatwave Continues
Lower Oil Prices Ease Inflation Concerns and Support Financial Markets
Financial Conduct Authority Launches Consumer Campaign on Car Finance Compensation
Government Prioritises Employment Over Benefit Cuts in Welfare Reform Plans
Prime Minister Rules Out Sweeping Property Tax Changes Before Autumn Budget
AstraZeneca Beats Expectations as Cancer Medicines Drive Strong Profit Growth
Labour Regains Narrow Polling Lead After Burnham's First Week in Office
United Kingdom Reaffirms Long-Term Commitment to Ukraine Under Burnham Government
×