London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Jun 20, 2025

IMF demands interest rate rises as UK set for weakest growth among G7 economies next year

IMF demands interest rate rises as UK set for weakest growth among G7 economies next year

The International Monetary Fund's prescription for dealing with the cost of living crisis is likely to be seized upon by Rishi Sunak's supporters as evidence that his blueprint is the right course for the UK government to take.

The world's lender of last resort has appealed for central banks to raise interest rates and for governments to take a responsible stance with public finances while warning of a harder impact from the global inflation shock.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) used its updated World Economic Outlook to take another red pen to growth forecasts as economies battle the impact of rising prices.

It said that growth was "stalling" in the world's three largest economies (the US, China and eurozone) as a consequence of the deteriorating picture for inflation, linked to the COVID pandemic and latterly Russia's war in Ukraine, forecasting that the problem would remain more stubborn than predicted in its previous update.

Chillingly it warned that under a "plausible" scenario, downside risks for the global economy including a complete shutdown in Russian gas supplies to Europe and prolonged zero-COVID lockdowns in China would result in one of the worst performances for output since 1970 if realised.

The fund's new forecasts saw global growth of 3.2% for 2022 - a downwards revision of 0.4% on April's forecast.

Much of that figure was accounted for by a massive 1.4% downgrade for the United States - the world's largest economy.

The IMF said it now expected growth of just 2.3% this year as a result of an inflation rate that, like in the UK, was at a 40-year high.

It said that disruption to trade flows with China was another big factor behind the downgrade and warned growth would stall further, to just 1%, in 2023.



The report downgraded its expectations for Chinese growth this year by 1.1% to just 3.3% as it also faces inflationary pressures but also battles COVID outbreaks through shutdowns of major cities that have inflicted huge damage on its manufacturing sector.

The UK, the IMF projected, would see a growth of 3.2% this year - above those of its biggest competitors including France and Germany - but it repeated its forecast that output would ease significantly to just 0.5% in 2023 to become the slowest among the G7.

Russia was tipped to see its economy contract by 6% this year and by 3.5% in 2023 as it grapples with the effects of Western sanctions.

The sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine have exacerbated the global inflation problem as it has forced countries to scramble for alternative supplies of key commodities including wheat, sunflower oil, oil and natural gas.

The IMF urged central bank and government action to help bring down inflationary pressures, with its fiscal prescription favouring the stance taken by former chancellor Rishi Sunak as he battles Liz Truss for the Tory leadership and keys to Number 10.

"With increasing prices continuing to squeeze living standards worldwide, taming inflation should be the first priority for policymakers", the fund said.

"Tighter monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs, but the delay will only exacerbate them.

"Targeted fiscal support can help cushion the impact on the most vulnerable, but with government budgets stretched by the pandemic and the need for a disinflationary overall macroeconomic policy stance, such policies will need to be offset by increased taxes or lower government spending."

The Conservative leadership race has been dominated by the candidates' approach to the cost of living crisis.

Ms Truss, the foreign secretary, favours a "bold" tax cut agenda to prevent the economy from going into reverse while the former occupant of Number 11 has ruled out giveaways in the short term for fear of fuelling inflation further.

The Bank of England, for its part, has raised the Bank rate at each meeting since December last year but is under pressure to opt for a sharper hike at its meeting early next month.

Governor Andrew Bailey has said that a 50 basis points increase, which would take its core rate to 1.75%, is on the table but not necessarily on the cards.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the fund's chief economist, wrote: "Tighter monetary policy will inevitably have real economic costs, but delaying it will only exacerbate the hardship.

"Central banks that have started tightening should stay the course until inflation is tamed."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
Iranian Military Officers Reportedly Seek Contact with Reza Pahlavi, Signal Intent to Defect
FBI and Senate Investigate Allegations of Chinese Plot to Influence the 2020 Election in Biden’s Favor Using Fake U.S. Driver’s Licenses
Vietnam Emerges as Luxury Yacht Destination for Ultra‑Rich
Plans to Sell Dutch Embassy in Bangkok Face Local Opposition
China's Iranian Oil Imports Face Disruption Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Trump's $5 Million 'Trump Card' Visa Program Draws Nearly 70,000 Applicants
DGCA Finds No Major Safety Concerns in Air India's Boeing 787 Fleet
Airlines Reroute Flights Amid Expanding Middle East Conflict Zones
Elon Musk's xAI Seeks $9.3 Billion in Funding Amid AI Expansion
Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender Amid Escalating Conflict
Israeli Airstrike Targets Iranian State TV in Central Tehran
President Trump is leaving the G7 summit early and has ordered the National Security Council to the Situation Room
Taiwan Imposes Export Ban on Chips to Huawei and SMIC
Israel has just announced plans to strike Tehran again, and in response, Trump has urged people to evacuate
Netanyahu Signals Potential Regime Change in Iran
Juncker Criticizes EU Inaction on Trump Tariffs
EU Proposes Ban on New Russian Gas Contracts
Analysts Warn Iran May Resort to Unconventional Warfare
Iranian Regime Faces Existential Threat Amid Conflict
Energy Infrastructure Becomes War Zone in Middle East
UK Home Secretary Apologizes Over Child Grooming Failures
Trump Organization Launches 5G Mobile Network and Golden Handset
Towcester Hosts 2025 English Greyhound Derby Amid Industry Scrutiny
Gary Oldman and David Beckham Knighted in King's Birthday Honours
Over 30,000 Lightning Strikes Recorded Across UK During Overnight Storms
Princess of Wales Returns to Public Duties at Trooping the Colour
Red Arrows Use Sustainable Fuel in Historic Trooping the Colour Flypast
Former Welsh First Minister Addresses Unionist Concerns Over Irish Language
Iran Signals Openness to Nuclear Negotiations Amid Ongoing Regional Tensions
France Bars Israeli Arms Companies from Paris Defense Expo
King Charles Leads Tribute to Air India Crash Victims at Trooping the Colour
Jack Pitchford Embarks on 200-Mile Walk to Support Stem Cell Charity
Surrey Hikers Take on Challenge of Climbing 11 Peaks in a Single Day
UK Deploys RAF Jets to Middle East Amid Israel-Iran Tensions
Two Skydivers Die in 'Tragic Accident' at Devon Airfield
Sainsbury's and Morrisons Accused of Displaying Prohibited Tobacco Ads
UK Launches National Inquiry into Grooming Gangs
Families Seek Closure After Air India Crash
Gold Emerges as Global Safe Haven Amid Uncertainty
Trump Reports $57 Million Earnings from Crypto Venture
Trump's Military Parade Sparks Concerns Over Authoritarianism
Nationwide 'No Kings' Protests Challenge Trump's Leadership
UK Deploys Jets to Middle East Amid Rising Tensions
Trump's Anti-War Stance Tested Amid Israel-Iran Conflict
Germany Holds First Veterans Celebration Since WWII
U.S. Health Secretary Dismisses CDC Vaccine Advisory Committee
Minnesota Lawmaker Melissa Hortman and Husband Killed in Targeted Attack; Senator John Hoffman and Wife Injured
Exiled Iranian Prince Reza Pahlavi Urges Overthrow of Khamenei Regime
×