London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Aug 31, 2026

How Silicon Valley Bank chaos has had a bearing on us all - and why we're in for a bumpy few months

How Silicon Valley Bank chaos has had a bearing on us all - and why we're in for a bumpy few months

If inflation does stay a lot higher than the central banks expect, then we could be in for a more turbulent time. And how worried should we be about that? The next few months will tell, but for the time being there's good and bad news.
Tempting as it is to believe that the chaos with Silicon Valley Bank and its British arm are of interest only to members of the tech community and financial nerds, it has already had a very real bearing on all our lives.

For evidence, look no further than the money markets, where investors bet on the future path of interest rates.

Up until last Friday, they were expecting UK interest rates to peak at around 4.75% - possibly even a little bit higher.

But the shock of the bank collapse caused a sudden reappraisal. By Monday evening, they were pricing in a peak of only 4.25% - a very big fall by the scheme of these things. It was a similar story in the US, where the expected peak for rates dropped by around half a percentage point.

Why are these two stories - interest rates and an obscure bank collapse - colliding?

In large part it's because they were always intertwined - not that anyone paid much attention before last week.

Part of the reason Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) suffered its demise was because over the past 18 months rising interest rates had caused a sharp fall in the value of bonds held by the bank.

It was, in large part, those losses and the impact on SVB's balance sheet that prompted depositors to run from the bank late last week (which in turn triggered the UK branch's collapse).

In other words, one of the consequences of SVB's implosion is that the Federal Reserve and Bank of England might become a little more wary of raising interest rates in future.

Everyone knew there were unexploded bombs in the financial system which would begin to explode when money got more expensive; the fear now is that there may be more explosions to come.

This isn't the only explanation for why rate expectations have come down. There's also the fact that the chaos at SVB, Signature bank (which also failed) and across much of the US banking system might dampen economic growth or even precipitate a recession.

And, for the most part, central banks tend to cut rates rather than raise them in the face of a recession. And we were already getting close to the potential peak in borrowing costs.

Even so, this interplay between an extremely nervous financial system and interest rates is a big part of the story.

Which brings us to some of the consequences.

'Things could get pretty gritty'

Let's assume the Fed and the Bank of England are indeed going to allow interest rates to peak at a lower rate than previously expected.

Does that mean that we have to expect higher inflation in future? What if inflation turns out to be considerably more sticky than most central banks expect (they mostly think it'll come down pretty quickly)?

The short answer is that things could get pretty gritty: the Bank of England is duty bound to try to keep inflation low and to try to keep the financial system stable, but among the many things illustrated by the SVB episode is that those two objectives can sometimes clash with each other.

In this case, higher interest rates (to fight inflation) contributed to financial instability. Yes, there was lots else going on besides - there's a strong case to say the Fed wasn't doing enough to monitor the risk posed by unusual banks like SVB - but the rising cost of money is a big part of the story.

There's good news and bad news

If inflation does stay a lot higher than the central banks expect, then we could be in for a more turbulent time.

And how worried should we be about that? The next few months will tell, but for the time being there's good and bad news.

The good is that the headline consumer price index in both the UK and US seems to have been faring more or less as the central banks expected - gradually coming down. Earlier today, the US CPI came in at an annual rate of 6% - bang in line with expectations.

The bad news is that when you look beneath the surface, there are some hints that inflation could prove more stubborn than expected.

In particular, core inflation - the behaviour of prices once you strip out volatile items like energy and food - is still building, especially when you ignore housing costs. That suggests there's still upwards pressure on prices.

And sure enough, immediately after the release of those numbers, interest rate expectations rose a little, both in the UK and US.

Now, UK rates are expected to peak not at 4.25% but 4.4% (which in practical terms means a fair few people - though not everyone - expect 4.5% rates).

In short, we're in for a bumpy few months.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
ScottishPower Recycles Nearly All Materials From Historic Hagshaw Hill Wind Farm
Millions Travel Across England, Wales and Northern Ireland for Summer Bank Holiday
Met Office Issues Yellow Thunderstorm Warnings Across Southern England
Four Arrested After Bank Holiday Stabbing Violence in Kettering
Scottish Chamber of Commerce Warns Tax and Business Costs Risk Holding Back Scotland
UK Government Launches Youth Employment Drive With Major Retailers
UK and Ukraine Advance AI and Defence Technology Partnership
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Moves to Exclude Serious Offenders From Early Release
Twelve Arrested After A66 Crash Kills Seven, Including Two Police Officers
Bank of England Governor Warns AI Investment Boom Could Trigger Global Market Correction
London Science Museum Ends Long-Running BP Sponsorship
Scottish Homeowners Prepare Valuation Challenges Over Proposed Mansion Tax
UK Prosecutors Consider Charges Against Undercover Police in Spycops Scandal
James Cleverly Leaves Shadow Cabinet to Run for London Mayor
Avanti West Coast Drivers Agree 3.6% Pay Rise, Averting Strike Action
Allianz Explores £5 Billion Takeover of British Roadside Assistance Group AA
UK Government Retreats From Plan to Unfreeze Personal Income Tax Threshold
Northern Ireland Leaders Press UK Government for Sustainable Funding Settlement
UK Health Agency Warns Nationwide Salmonella Outbreak Could Worsen
NHS Warns Autism and ADHD Assessment Costs Have Become Unsustainable
UK Rejects Moratorium on AI Data Centres Despite Energy and Water Concerns
Thames Water Creditors Offer Government Golden Share in £10 Billion Rescue Plan
UK Warns Defence Executives of Russian Assassination and Sabotage Threats
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate at 3.75% Amid Inflation Risks
UK Restricts Early Prison Release for Serious Offenders as Jails Near Capacity
Genetic Study Finds Medieval Britain’s ‘Conquest Man’ Had Scandinavian Origins
Kemi Badenoch Plans Conservative Frontbench Reshuffle After Cleverly Departure
Nissan Sunderland Plant Highlighted as Key Economic Anchor for North East England
UK Arts Report Finds Women Face Persistent Barriers to Career Progression
Private Equity Consolidation of UK Veterinary Practices Raises Consumer Cost Concerns
South West Water Ranked Worst in England for Environmental Performance
British Train Drivers Secure 3.6% Pay Rise, Averting Strike Threat
UK Prosecutors Consider Charges Against Officers in Undercover Policing Scandal
James Cleverly Leaves Conservative Shadow Cabinet to Run for London Mayor
Allianz Explores £5 Billion Takeover of British Roadside Assistance Group AA
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate at 3.7% as Growth Stalls and Inflation Eases
UK Government Announces Electricity VAT Cut and £2 Bus Fare Cap
UK Officials Highlight 80 Years of Diplomatic Relations With Philippines
Heavy Rain Disrupts Parts of England After Weeks of Extreme Summer Heat
More Than 200 Extra Police Officers Deployed Across Cleveland After Violent Incidents
Burnham Meets Northern Ireland Leaders for Talks on Economy and Youth Employment
Burnham to Abstain From UK Assisted Dying Vote
NHS Leaders Warn of Severe Financial and Staffing Pressures Ahead of Autumn
UK Treasury Prepares October Budget as Defense and Public Spending Pressures Mount
Scottish Government Publishes Draft Bill for Second Independence Referendum
Royal Navy Tracks Russian Warships and Sanctioned Vessels in 72-Hour Operation
UK and Ukraine Agree AI-Focused Defense Technology Partnership
US Reportedly Weighs Falkland Islands Policy Shift to Pressure UK Over NATO Spending
UK Government Mobilizes Emergency Aid as British Nationals Remain Missing After Nepal Floods
UK Hospitality Industry Reports Stronger Summer Trading but Seeks Tax Relief
×