London Daily

Focus on the big picture.

How Long Can A Human Live? Debate Reignited After Oldest Person Dies

How Long Can A Human Live? Debate Reignited After Oldest Person Dies

According to the United Nations, there were an estimated 593,000 people aged 100 years or older in 2021, up from 353,000 a decade earlier.
The death of the world's oldest person at the age of 118 has reignited a debate that has divided scientists for centuries: is there a limit on how long a healthy human can live?

After French nun Lucile Randon died last week, Spanish great-grandmother Maria Branyas Morera, 115, has assumed the title of the oldest living person, according to Guinness World Records.

Back in the 18th century, French naturalist Georges-Louis Leclerc, known as the Comte de Buffon, theorised that a person who had not suffered an accident or illness could live for a theoretical maximum of 100 years.

Since then, medical advancements and improving living conditions have pushed the limit back by a couple of decades.

A new milestone was reached when Frenchwoman Jeanne Calment celebrated her 120th birthday in 1995.

Calment died two years later at the age of 122. She remains the oldest person ever to have lived -- that has been verified, at least.

According to the United Nations, there were an estimated 593,000 people aged 100 years or older in 2021, up from 353,000 a decade earlier.

The number of centenarians is expected to more than double over the next decade, according to the Statista data agency.

The Comte de Buffon might also have been surprised by the rise of supercentenarians -- people aged 110 or over -- whose numbers have been increasing since the 1980s.

Natural limit at 115?

So how far could we go? Scientists disagree, with some maintaining that the lifespan of our species is limited by strict biological constraints.

In 2016, geneticists writing in the journal Nature said there had been no improvement in human longevity since the late 1990s.

Analysing global demographic data, they found that the maximum human lifespan had declined since Calment's death -- even though there were more elderly people in the world.

"They concluded that human lifespan has a natural limit and that longevity is limited to around 115 years," French demographer Jean-Marie Robine told AFP.

"But this hypothesis is partly disputed by many demographers," said Mr Robine, a specialist in centenarians at the INSERM medical research institute.

Research in 2018 found that while the rate of death increases with age, it slows down after 85.

Around the age of 107, the rate of death peaks at 50-60 percent every year, the research said.

"Under this theory, if there are 12 people aged 110, six will survive to be 111, three to be 112, and so on," Mr Robine said.

A numbers game

But the more supercentenarians, the higher chance a few have to live to make it to record ages.

If there are 100 supercentenarians, "50 will live to be 111 years old, 25 to 112," Mr Robine said.

"Thanks to a 'volume effect', there are no longer fixed limits to longevity."

However, Mr Robine and his team are publishing research this year which will show that the rate of death continues to increase beyond the age of 105, further narrowing the window.

Does this mean there is a hard ceiling on how long we can live? Mr Robine will not go that far.

"We will continue to make discoveries, as we always have, and little by little the health of the oldest people will improve," he said.

Other experts are also cautious about choosing a side.

"There is no definitive answer for the moment," said France Mesle, a demographer at the French institute of demographic studies (INED).

"Even if they are increasing, the number of people reaching very old age is still quite small and we still cannot make any significant statistical estimate," she told AFP.

So it might be a matter of waiting for rising numbers of supercentenarians to test the "volume effect".

And of course some future medical breakthroughs could soon upend everything we know about death.

Eric Boulanger, a French doctor specialising in the elderly, said that "genetic manipulation" could allow some people to live for 140 or even 150 years.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Prince William to End Feudal Land Restrictions in Duchy of Cornwall, but Controversies Remain
British police appear unprepared to deal with usual suspects
Russia's Ballistic Blitz on Kyiv Sends Shockwaves Through Global Stability
Multiple Tragedies and Tensions Mark Global Events: A Closer Look
Elon Musk's AfD Endorsement Ignites Controversy from neo-Nazis who accuse the AfD of being what they themselves are
Ukraine Claims Unprecedented Russian Losses: The Truth Behind Wartime Statistics
Federal Reserve Chair Powell: "We are prohibited from owning Bitcoin and are not seeking any changes to that law."
A Democratic congresswoman with blue and black hair is having a meltdown over "President Musk."
A sizable group of unauthorized migrants is traveling through Mexico with the aim of reaching the USA before Trump assumes office.
Beatles Reunion Electrifies London: Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr Ignite O2 Arena with Surprise Performance
Starmer's Envoy Engages Trump Team as UK Seeks Strategic U.S. Partnership
Britain's Retail Rebound Falters as Black Friday Splurge Dissipates
Bank of Japan's Bold Reckoning: A Decade of Unconventional Policy Under Scrutiny
Republican Discord Threatens Government Shutdown Amid Holiday Season
French Retiree Dominique Pellico Convicted for Recruiting 72 Men to Assault Wife Over a Decade
Putin Defends War Strategy as Global Tensions Rise
Putin Claims Progress as Tensions Rise: Conflict in Ukraine Intensifies
Putin's Paradox: Claiming Strength Amidst Sanctions and Isolation
Water as a Weapon: The Contentious Struggle for Survival in Gaza
Syria's Future: A Fight for Democracy or Another Cycle of Oppression?
UK Considers Sending Troops to Ukraine: A Strategic Move or Intensifying The Proxy War?
Renewed ISIS Threat Puts Syria’s Cultural Heritage in Peril
Escalation in Moscow: High-Profile Assassination and International Tensions Intensify
North Korean Troops in Ukraine: A New Cold War Frontier?
Ukraine's Bold Move: High-Stakes Assassination of Russian General in Moscow
Dubai's Technological Leap: Brain Chips and AI Board Members by 2025
Tragedy Strikes Wisconsin School as Shooting Claims Lives of Teacher and Student
UK's Calculated Gamble: Balancing Defense Aid to Ukraine and Domestic Demands
UK Intensifies Stranglehold on Russian Oil, but Does It Dampen Putin’s Resolve?
British Voter Endorsement of Reeves's Bold Tax Strategy
Nicola Sturgeon Warns of 'Toxic' Discourse: The Perils of Polarisation in Modern Politics
Levelling Down: How the Conservatives Underspent on Regional Revitalization
Alleged Chinese Espionage: The Entangled Web Beyond Prince Andrew
Starmer Navigates Diplomatic Tightrope Amid Chinese Espionage Revelations Involving Prince Andrew
Balancing Democracy and Disorder: The Trial of a Milkshake Incident
Royal Mail Enters New Chapter Under Czech Ownership
UK Companies Slash Jobs Amid Economic Strain
Kemi Badenoch Rekindles Flat Tax Debate Amid Inheritance Tax Uproar
Rewiring Whitehall: New Cabinet Secretary's Mandate for Change
Legal Battle Revives: Lucy Letby Seeks Fresh Appeal as Expert Evidence Faces Scrutiny
Accusations Fly as UK-China Relations Spark Tension Within British Politics
The Delicate Dance of Devolution: As English Council Elections Face Delays
The Alleged Chinese Spy at the Heart of British Royal Circles: Yang Tengbo Unmasked
Prince Andrew Withdraws from Royal Christmas Amidst Chinese Espionage Scandal
EU Takes Legal Action Against UK Over Allegedly Neglected Rights of EU Citizens
Disaster Strikes: Oil Spill in the Black Sea and Cyclone Devastation in Mayotte
Oil Tanker Disaster in the Kerch Strait: A Confluence of Environmental Catastrophe and Geopolitical Tensions
Olaf Scholz’s Gamble: The Collapse of Germany’s Coalition Government and the Path to Early Elections
Keir Starmer's 'Sycophantic' Tone: Tensions Rise Over UK-China Relations
Trump Recognizes Partial Advances in Ceasefire Attempts in Ukraine Conflict
×