London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 22, 2026

Higher taxes look to be here to stay, says IFS

Higher taxes look to be here to stay, says IFS

The UK has entered a "new era" of higher taxes, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) think tank has said.

Its director Paul Johnson said that middle earners were "set for a shock" with taxes going up and prices soaring.

In his Autumn Statement, the chancellor announced plans to increase taxes to shore up the public finances and to provide help with energy bills.

The toughest decisions on spending cuts had been delayed until after 2024, the IFS said in its analysis of the plans.

On Friday, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt acknowledged there were "very difficult times ahead" but said his plans gave people "certainty" on how the government would help them through the recession.

But the IFS's Mr Johnson warned that living standards were facing the "biggest fall in living memory" due to weak economic growth, an ageing population and high levels of government borrowing in the past.

"The truth is we just got a lot poorer. We are in for a long, hard, unpleasant journey; a journey that has been made more arduous than it might have been by a series of economic own goals," Mr Johnson said.

On Thursday, the government's independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, said the UK was in a recession and forecast that the economy would shrink next year.

Mr Johnson described the economic backdrop as "grim", and said the tax burden was unlikely to return to its pre-pandemic average "for several decades".

In total, the plans announced on Thursday amount to about £25bn in tax rises. The measures include:

*  Tax thresholds being frozen until April 2028, meaning millions will pay more tax

*  The top 45% additional rate of income tax starting for people earning over £125,140, instead of £150,000

*  Local councils in England being allowed to raise council tax by 5% a year without a local vote, instead of 3% currently

Mr Johnson said people on middle incomes would be hardest hit, because they would not benefit from targeted government support.

"Their wages are falling and their taxes are rising. Middle England is set for a shock," he said.

According to the think tank's analysis, households will pay energy bills that are £900 a year higher than they are now - after the energy price cap rises in April and without this year's £400 rebate.

Daniel Cooke, a father of three, told the BBC he won't qualify for extra help, but he has already had to take on a second job delivering takeaways in the evenings to make ends meet.

Daniel Cooke has taken on a second job in the evenings to help with the bills


"We've been able to almost survive with the assistance that's come through from the government… [it's now] going to be taken away from us through almost no fault of our own.

"It's a very frightening, very worrying time for us as a young family. How we're going to pay for our bills, how we're going to pay for our gas and electric - I have no idea."

In the Autumn Statement, the chancellor announced he was extending the freezing of tax thresholds for a further two years up to 2028. That means the threshold where you start paying tax is fixed, rather than rising with inflation. So people will pay a higher proportion of their earnings in tax as their wages go up.


While taxes will rise from April, almost all spending cuts will be delayed until after 2024, when the next general election is expected, a move which drew criticism from some parts of the Conservative Party.

Former business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg urged the chancellor to look at further government spending cuts "before reaching for the easy options of putting up taxes".

But Mr Hunt defended his plans, telling the BBC's Today programme: "Sound money matters more than low taxes."

He also denied that the announcements constituted a "raid on working people", and suggested that it was not possible to raise £25bn "just focusing on a very small group of very rich people".

As well as tax rises for people on average incomes, he said his plan involves "looking after the most vulnerable", pointing towards new targeted payments for pensioners, people on means-tested benefits and people who claim disability benefits to help with rising bills.

The Autumn Statement was also praised by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for balancing the need to bring prices down and protect people's earnings during a difficult time for the economy.

"We welcome the government's efforts to better protect the vulnerable and to prioritise education, health, and investment," the IMF said, which was in stark contrast to the criticism it offered Kwasi Kwarteng in the wake of September's mini-budget.

But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said the government could have made "fairer choices" around tax.

"We need a serious plan to grow our economy," she told BBC Breakfast, criticising the government's decision to reduce the tax surcharge on banks, and its failure to introduce a non-dom tax status or to tax private equity bonuses.

"If [the government] did some of those things, [it] wouldn't have needed to increase taxes on ordinary people. This government comes time and again for the pockets of the ordinary man and woman rather than for those with the broader shoulders," she added.

The IFS analysis also found that ordinary households will be 30% worse off by 2028 than they would have been had incomes continued to grow as they did before the 2008 financial crisis.

Its findings chimed with those of the Resolution Foundation, a think tank that focuses on people on lower incomes.

The Resolution Foundation said that the chancellor's economic plans would add more pressure on the "squeezed middle", who face a permanent 3.7% hit to their incomes, which is bigger than the very richest.

It added that it thought the spending cuts outlined on Thursday were likely to be "undeliverable" as they would require "years of holding down public sector wages below those in the private sector".

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Department for Science, Innovation and Technology Commits Fifty Million Pounds to Establish Regional Artificial Intelligence Innovation Clusters
Ofgem Directs Major Energy Suppliers to Expand Vulnerable Household Support Funds Ahead of Winter Heating Season
Home Office and National Police Chiefs Council Unveil New Intelligence-Led Strategy to Tackle Organised Immigration Crime Networks
First Minister John Swinney Secures Scottish Parliament Approval for Comprehensive Climate and Green Energy Infrastructure Strategy
National Health Service England and Trades Union Congress Finalize Agreement on Emergency Winter Staffing and Pay Frameworks
HM Treasury and Department for Business and Trade Announce Multi-Billion-Pound Sovereign Investment Pact to Spur Regional Advanced Manufacturing
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Signals Potential for Faster Interest Rate Cuts as Domestic Inflation Pressures Ease Below Forecasts
Parliamentary Inquiry Highlights Urgent Need to Address Housing Shortage as Scottish Completions Hit Eleven-Year Low
United Kingdom and Singapore Sign Comprehensive Financial Agreement to Deepen Digital and Sustainable Market Ties
Greggs Announces Plan to Close Four Manufacturing Facilities and Cut Seven Hundred and Forty Jobs
International Monetary Fund Raises United Kingdom Economic Growth Forecast While Warning of Inflationary Pressures
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs Onto Gas to Lower Household Bills
Housebuilding Across Scotland Plummets to Eleven-Year Low Despite Government Pledges to Tackle National Housing Emergency
Greggs Announces Factory Closures Across Northern England and Scotland Affecting Seven Hundred Forty Jobs
United Kingdom and Singapore Conclude Eleventh Financial Dialogue in Singapore to Deepen Cooperation on Digital Finance and Capital Markets
Energy Security and Net Zero Committee Urges Government to Shift Policy Costs to Gas Bills and Tap Windfall Profits to Lower Consumer Prices
British Broadcasting Corporation Announces Major Cost-Cutting Overhaul to Close Linear Broadcast Services for Television Channels BBC Three and BBC Scotland Alongside Digital Radio Station BBC Radio Four Extra
London Capital Markets Face Renewed Scrutiny After High-Profile Offerings Underperform Post-Listing
Green Party Wins Historic First Westminster Parliamentary By-Election in Gorton and Denton
Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds Unveils Sweeping Regulatory Overhaul for English Water Industry
United Kingdom Health Security Agency Confirms Thirty-Four Cases in Kent Meningitis Outbreak
Ministry of Defence Prepares Heat Pump Subsidy Cuts to Fund Urgent Military Modernization
British and European Union Officials Schedule Long-Awaited Bilateral Leaders Summit for November Twentieth
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey Urges Strict Fiscal Credibility to Protect British Bond Markets
United Kingdom Inflation Rises to Three Point One Percent Driven by Escalating Fuel Costs
Profit Warnings Among London-Listed Companies Reach Two-Year High Amid Global Energy Shocks
Chancellor John Healey Signals Targeted Tax Changes on Banks and London Corporate Offices Ahead of Budget
British Government Reallocates Twenty-Five Per Cent of International Climate Finance to Global Biodiversity Projects
Initial British Carbon Border Taxes Set to Undercut Parallel European Union Tariffs on Industrial Imports
Whitehall Prepares National Zero-Interest Loan Initiative to Accelerate Domestic Heat Pump and Solar Adoption
European Union Offers British Automakers Access to Hybrid Vehicle Trade Protections Subject to Strict Regulatory Alignment
British Probation Officers Threaten Widespread Industrial Action After Rejecting Five Per Cent Government Pay Offer
Microsoft Abandons Major British Artificial Intelligence Data Centre Citing Severe National Grid Power Constraints
United Kingdom Inflation Accelerates to Three Point Four Per Cent Ahead of Chancellor John Healey's Inaugural Autumn Budget
Surging Cloned Number Plates Severely Complicate Traffic Enforcement and Police Investigations
Mounting Opposition Challenges Planned Rollout of Autonomous Taxis Across London
Influential Think Tank Urges Rejoining European Union to Navigate Geopolitical Crises
Government Review Recommends Slashing Benefits to Fund Youth Employment Initiatives
Senior Minister Shabana Mahmood Seeks New Law Enforcement Pact With European Union
Airbus Executive Warns Britain Risks Losing Crucial Role in European Space Industry
Exorbitant Electricity Costs Push British Steelmakers to Worst Competitive Position in Three Years
British Food and Beverage Exports to European Union Collapse by Over a Third Since Brexit
Up to Twenty English Maternity Units Face Impending Closure Due to Safety and Staffing Crises
Government Declares Severe Drought Across Southern England Following Record Dry Spell
Corporate Profit Warnings Reach Two-Year High Amid Middle East Conflict and Rising Costs
International Monetary Fund Warns Chancellor John Healey Against Proposed Bank Tax Raid
Northern Ireland Secures Favorable Agricultural Export Agreement with European Union
Scottish Government Approves Major Offshore Floating Wind Farm Near Aberdeenshire
High Speed Two Rail Project Faces Three Billion Pound Cost Escalation on Initial Phase
National Health Service Warns of Winter Capacity Crisis Across English Hospitals
×