London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 10, 2025

France would be foolish to veto a Brexit deal

France would be foolish to veto a Brexit deal

ritain and France are heading for an almighty bust-up over Brexit. This morning the French junior minister for European affairs, Clément Beaune, specifically confirmed that if France was unhappy with the final Brexit deal - notably on fishing - it would use its veto. France would carry out ‘her own evaluation’ of the deal and act accordingly, he told radio Europe 1.
Whether there is a deal or not, a blame game is about to be unleashed. Given this late stage, if there is a deal then the French cannot possibly get all they want on fishing. The French Prime Minister said so yesterday to French fishermen at France’s largest fishing port, Boulogne. But that won’t stop President Macron raising merry hell and publicly blaming Britain’s intransigence.

For centuries, such Brit-bashing has gone down well with the French public and Macron needs a distraction from his domestic strife of simultaneous health, security and political crises.

If there is no deal, the British Prime Minister - while not uncomfortable with that outcome - will lay the blame squarely on the French. Historically, that always goes down well with the man on the Clapham omnibus, or today’s red wall voters, albeit not with Guardian readers and the metropolitan middle-classes.

In terms of chauvinistic firepower, then, Macron can outgun Boris. But looked at in the round, France has most to lose from a long-running public row with Britain resulting from no-deal.

First, Macron, whose standing among European leaders and public is seriously patchy, will have to assume responsibility for no-deal just as a number of European states come up to sensitive national elections. He has already burned much political capital with member states and cannot afford to expend more.

But most importantly, France needs Britain even more for foreign policy and defence co-operation across the globe. Macron said so in a keynote speech to French ambassadors two years ago, regardless of Brexit. At present France is a lone and powerless voice on the diplomatic stage - what's more, she is currently militarily overextended (the 5,000 troops in the Sahel are making little progress).

France cannot turn to a militarily self-neutered Germany, whose restrictive rules of engagement reduce her to a glorified camping organisation (however much this would have been a godsend in the past).

France's military and diplomats have high expectations for a new Britain to emerge from its Brexit hibernation, boosted by the recent £16.5 billion increase to the defence budget - already the largest in Europe - and its two new aircraft carriers entering service. France needs the world’s fourth military power.

For that reason, Macron made much of his June visit to London, celebrating the British wartime support for General de Gaulle and his BBC broadcasts to the resistance. Macron spoke of his planned return to London in November, again to celebrate his country's ties with the United Kingdom, this time the tenth anniversary of an unsung Franco-British agreement on defence co-operation.

Covid got the better of that. This substantial but little commented bilateral treaty is the basis for co-operation between Paris and London in everything from defence and security to arms manufacture and nuclear weapons.

One look at the content of this Lancaster House agreement indicates why Macron will not want a UK row to be anything more than for domestic consumption. The resulting combined joint expeditionary force is now at full operating capacity for deployment of 10,000 personnel to an overseas crisis.

Co-operation extends to a joint nuclear weapons facility, complex weapons manufacture on everything from missiles to drones and cyber, and an integrated carrier strike group with HMS Queen Elizabeth II operating for the first time with the French navy's flagship Charles de Gaulle next year.

Since 1995, Britain and France have remained committed to the notion that a vital threat to the interests of one constitutes a vital threat to the interests of the other. With France over-committed internationally and Britain under-committed, even self-proclaimed risk-taker Macron cannot afford a Brexit row to spiral out of control. Even overlooking France’s £9 billion trade surplus with the UK, Boris has the upper hand.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Severe Heatwave Claims 2,300 Lives Across Europe
NVIDIA Achieves Historic Milestone as First Company Valued at $4 Trillion
Declining Beer Consumption Signals Cultural Shift in Germany
Linda Yaccarino Steps Down as CEO of X After Two Years
US Imposes New Tariffs on Brazilian Exports Amid Political Tensions
Azerbaijan and Armenia are on the brink of a historic peace deal.
Emails Leaked: How Passenger Luggage Became a Side Income for Airport Workers
Polish MEP: “Dear Leftists - China is laughing at you, Russia is laughing, India is laughing”
BRICS Expands Membership with Indonesia and Ten New Partner Countries
Weinstein Victim’s Lawyer Says MeToo Movement Still Strong
U.S. Enacts Sweeping Tax and Spending Legislation Amid Trade Policy Shifts
Football Mourns as Diogo Jota and Brother André Silva Laid to Rest in Portugal
Labour Expected to Withdraw Support for Special Needs Funding Model
Leaked Audio Reveals Tory Aide Defending DEI Record
Elon Musk Founds a Party Following a Poll on X: "You Wanted It – You Got It!"
London Stock Exchange Faces Historic Low in Initial Public Offerings
A new online platform has emerged in the United Kingdom, specifically targeting Muslim men seeking virgin brides
Trump Celebrates Independence Day with B-2 Flyover and Signs Controversial Legislation
Boris Johnson Urges Conservatives to Ignore Farage
SNP Ordered to Update Single-Sex Space Guidance Within Days
Starmer Set to Reject Calls for Wealth Taxes
Stolen Century-Old Rolls-Royce Recovered After Hotel Theft
Macron Presses Starmer to Recognise Palestinian State
Labour Delayed Palestine Action Ban Over Riot Concerns
Swinney’s Tax Comments ‘Offensive to Scots’, Say Tories
High Street Retailers to Enforce Bans on Serial Shoplifters
Music Banned by Henry VIII to Be Performed After 500 Years
Steve Coogan Says Working Class Is Being ‘Ethnically Cleansed’
Home Office Admits Uncertainty Over Visa Overstayer Numbers
JD Vance Questions Mandelson Over Reform Party’s Rising Popularity
Macron to Receive Windsor Carriage Ride in Royal Gesture
Labour Accused of ‘Hammering’ Scots During First Year in Power
BBC Head of Music Stood Down Amid Bob Vylan Controversy
Corbyn Eyes Hard-Left Challenge to Starmer’s Leadership
London Tube Trains Suspended After Major Fire Erupts Nearby
Richard Kemp: I Felt Safer in Israel Under Attack Than in the UK
Cyclist Says Police Cited Human Rights Act for Riding No-Handed
China’s Central Bank Consults European Peers on Low-Rate Strategies
AI Raises Alarms Over Long-Term Job Security
Saudi Arabia Maintains Ties with Iran Despite Israel Conflict
Musk Battles to Protect Tesla Amid Trump Policy Threats
Air France-KLM Acquires Majority Stake in Scandinavian Airlines
UK Educators Sound Alarm on Declining Child Literacy
Shein Fined €40 Million in France Over Misleading Discounts
Brazil’s Lula Visits Kirchner During Argentina House Arrest
Trump Scores Legislative Win as House Passes Tax Reform Bill
Keir Starmer Faces Criticism After Rocky First Year in Power
DJI Launches Heavy-Duty Coaxial Quadcopter with 80 kg Lift Capacity
U.S. Senate Approves Major Legislation Dubbed the 'Big Beautiful Bill'
Largest Healthcare Fraud Takedown in U.S. History Announced by DOJ
×