London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Aug 12, 2025

Ukraine war to cause biggest price shock in 50 years: World Bank

Ukraine war to cause biggest price shock in 50 years: World Bank

The war in Ukraine is set to cause the "largest commodity shock" since the 1970s, the World Bank has warned.
In a new forecast, it said the disruption caused by the conflict would contribute to huge price rises for goods ranging from natural gas to wheat and cotton.

The increase in prices "is starting to have very large economic and humanitarian effects", Peter Nagle, a co-author of the report, told the BBC.

He said "households across the world are feeling the cost of living crisis".

"We're particularly worried about the poorest households since they spend a larger share of income on food and energy, so they're particularly vulnerable to this price spike," the senior economist at the World Bank added.

Energy prices are set to increase more than 50%, pushing up bills for households and businesses, the World Bank says.

The biggest rise will be in the price of natural gas in Europe, which is set to more than double in cost. Prices are forecast to fall next year and in 2024, but even then will remain 15% higher than they were last year.

The World Bank said this means that from the lows of April 2020 until the highs of March this year we have seen "the largest 23-month increase in energy prices since the 1973 oil price hike", when tensions in the Middle East sent prices soaring.

Similarly, oil prices are expected to remain elevated into 2024 with a barrel of the benchmark measure, Brent Crude, projected to average $100 this year, something which will lead to widespread inflation.

Russia produces about 11% of the world's oil, the third biggest share, but the report said "disruptions resulting from the war are expected to having a lasting negative effect" as sanctions mean that foreign companies leave and access to technology is reduced.

Russia currently provides 40% of the EU's gas and 27% of its oil, but European governments are moving to wean their countries off of supplies from Russia. That has helped push up global prices by creating more demand for supplies from elsewhere.

The World Bank commodity outlook also warned many foods are set to see steep rises in their costs. The UN food prices index already shows they are at their highest since records began 60 years ago.

Wheat is forecast to increase 42.7% and reach new record highs in dollar terms. Other notable increases will be 33.3% for barley, 20% for soybeans and 29.8% for oils and 41.8% for chicken. These increases reflect the fact that exports from Ukraine and Russia have fallen drastically.

Before the war the two countries accounted for 28.9% of global wheat exports according to JP Morgan, and 60% of global sunflower supplies - a key ingredient in many processed foods - according to S&P Global.

Prices for other raw materials including fertilizers, metals and minerals are also predicted to go up. The costs of timber, tea and rice are among the few expected to fall.

"Wheat is one of the hardest agriculture exports to replace," according to a research note from the Bank of America. It points out that poor weather conditions in North America and China are likely to exacerbate the impact of Ukrainian supplies being reduced, something which will continue because the war has disrupted the spring planting season.

The note also suggests grain and oilseed shipments from Ukraine have fallen more than 80% because of the fighting and these lost exports, over the course of a year, "equate to about 10 days of world food supply".

The chief executive of Archer Daniels Midland, one of the world's four big food commodity traders, said he does not expect prices to come down soon.

As the US firm announced a 53% increase in net earnings for the first three months of this year, to $1.05bn, Juan Luciano said: "We expect reduced crop supplies - caused by the weak Canadian canola crop, the short South American crops, and now the disruptions in the Black Sea region - to drive continued tightness in global grain markets for the next few years".

Nagle, from the World Bank, said other countries can help solve the supply shortage caused by Ukraine's war in the medium term. However, a forecast 69% increase in fertilizer prices this year means "there's a real risk that as farmers start to use fewer fertilizers, agricultural yields will decline".

For commodities overall, the World Bank report said: "While prices generally are expected to peak in 2022, they are to remain much higher than previously forecast."

It added that "the outlook for commodity markets depends heavily on the duration of the war in Ukraine" and the disruption it causes to supply chains.
Comments

Oh ya 3 year ago
And rest assured that the USA did not cause any inflation by printing trillions of dollars in the last 2 years. Same way Zimbabwe, Argentina and the Weimar Republic and Venezuela had nothing to do with hyperinflation

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Trump Proposes Land Concessions to End Ukraine War
New Road Safety Measures Proposed in the UK: Focus on Eye Tests and Stricter Drink-Driving Limits
Viktor Orbán Criticizes EU's Financial Support for Ukraine Amid Economic Concerns
South Korea's Military Shrinks by 20% Amid Declining Birthrate
US Postal Service Targets Unregulated Vape Distributors in Crackdown
Duluth International Airport Running on Tech Older Than Your Grandmother's Vinyl Player
RFK Jr. Announces HHS Investigation into Big Pharma Incentives to Doctors
Australia to Recognize the State of Palestine at UN Assembly
The Collapse of the Programmer Dream: AI Experts Now the Real High-Earners
Security flaws in a carmaker’s web portal let one hacker remotely unlock cars from anywhere
Street justice isn’t pretty but how else do you deal with this kind of insanity? Sometimes someone needs to standup and say something
Armenia and Azerbaijan sign U.S.-brokered accord at White House outlining transit link via southern Armenia
Barcelona Resolves Captaincy Issue with Marc-André ter Stegen
US Justice Department Seeks Release of Epstein and Maxwell Grand Jury Exhibits Amid Legal and Victim Challenges
Trump Urges Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan to Resign Over Alleged Chinese Business Ties
Scotland’s First Minister Meets Trump Amid Visit Highlighting Whisky Tariffs, Gaza Crisis and Heritage Links
Trump Administration Increases Reward for Arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro to Fifty Million Dollars
Armenia and Azerbaijan to Sign US-Brokered Framework Agreement for Nakhchivan Corridor
British Labour Government Utilizes Counter-Terrorism Tools for Social Media Monitoring Against Legitimate Critics
OpenAI Launches GPT‑5, Its Most Advanced AI Model Yet
Embarrassment in Britain: Homelessness Minister Evicted Tenants and Forced to Resign
President Trump nominated Stephen Miran, his top economic adviser and a critic of the Federal Reserve, to temporarily fill an open Fed seat
The AI-Powered Education Revolution: Market Potential and Transformative Impact
Chikungunya Virus Outbreak in Southern China: Over 7,000 Hospitalized
French wine makers have seen catastrophic damage to vines that were almost ready to be harvested after the worst fires in more than 70 years burned through the south of the country
US Lawmaker Probes Intel CEO’s China Ties Amid National Security Concerns
Brazilian President Lula says he’ll contact the leaders of BRICS states to propose a unified response to U.S. tariffs
Trump Open to Meeting Putin as Soon as Next Week, with Possible Trilateral Summit Including Zelenskiy
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau spark dating rumors, joining high stakes world of celeb-politician romances
US envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow to seek a breakthrough in the Ukraine war ahead of President Trump’s peace deadline
WhatsApp Deletes 6.8 Million Scam Accounts Amid Rising Global Fraud
Nine people have been hospitalized and dozens of salmonella cases have been reported after an outbreak of infections linked to certain brands of pistachios and pistachio-containing products, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada
Karol Nawrocki Inaugurated as Poland’s President, Setting Stage for Clash with Tusk Government
Trump Signals JD Vance as ‘Most Likely’ MAGA Successor for 2028
US Charges Two Chinese Nationals for Illegal Nvidia AI Chip Exports
Texas Residents Face Water Restrictions While AI Data Centers Consume Millions of Gallons
U.S. Tariff Policy Triggers Market Volatility Amid Growing Global Trade Tensions
Tariffs, AI, and the Shifting U.S. Macro Landscape: Navigating a New Economic Regime
Representative Greene Urges H-1B Visa Cuts Amid U.S.-India Trade Tensions
U.S. House Committee Subpoenas Clintons and Senior Officials in Epstein Investigation
Sydney Sweeney Registered as Republican as Controversial American Eagle Ad Sparks Debate
Trump Accuses Major Banks of Politically Motivated Account Denials and Prepares Executive Order
TikTok Removes Huda Kattan Video Over Anti-Israel Conspiracy Claims
Trump Threatens Tariffs on India Over Russian Oil Imports
German Finance Minister Criticizes Trump’s Attacks on Institutions
U.S. Proposes Visa Bond of Up to $15,000 for Some Applicants
U.S. Farmers Increase Lobbying Amid Immigration Crackdown
Elon Musk Receives $23.7 Billion Tesla Stock Award
Texas House Paralyzed After Democrats Walk Out Over Redistricting
Mexican Cartels Complicate Sheinbaum’s U.S. Security Talks
×