London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 30, 2026

Ukraine war to cause biggest price shock in 50 years: World Bank

Ukraine war to cause biggest price shock in 50 years: World Bank

The war in Ukraine is set to cause the "largest commodity shock" since the 1970s, the World Bank has warned.
In a new forecast, it said the disruption caused by the conflict would contribute to huge price rises for goods ranging from natural gas to wheat and cotton.

The increase in prices "is starting to have very large economic and humanitarian effects", Peter Nagle, a co-author of the report, told the BBC.

He said "households across the world are feeling the cost of living crisis".

"We're particularly worried about the poorest households since they spend a larger share of income on food and energy, so they're particularly vulnerable to this price spike," the senior economist at the World Bank added.

Energy prices are set to increase more than 50%, pushing up bills for households and businesses, the World Bank says.

The biggest rise will be in the price of natural gas in Europe, which is set to more than double in cost. Prices are forecast to fall next year and in 2024, but even then will remain 15% higher than they were last year.

The World Bank said this means that from the lows of April 2020 until the highs of March this year we have seen "the largest 23-month increase in energy prices since the 1973 oil price hike", when tensions in the Middle East sent prices soaring.

Similarly, oil prices are expected to remain elevated into 2024 with a barrel of the benchmark measure, Brent Crude, projected to average $100 this year, something which will lead to widespread inflation.

Russia produces about 11% of the world's oil, the third biggest share, but the report said "disruptions resulting from the war are expected to having a lasting negative effect" as sanctions mean that foreign companies leave and access to technology is reduced.

Russia currently provides 40% of the EU's gas and 27% of its oil, but European governments are moving to wean their countries off of supplies from Russia. That has helped push up global prices by creating more demand for supplies from elsewhere.

The World Bank commodity outlook also warned many foods are set to see steep rises in their costs. The UN food prices index already shows they are at their highest since records began 60 years ago.

Wheat is forecast to increase 42.7% and reach new record highs in dollar terms. Other notable increases will be 33.3% for barley, 20% for soybeans and 29.8% for oils and 41.8% for chicken. These increases reflect the fact that exports from Ukraine and Russia have fallen drastically.

Before the war the two countries accounted for 28.9% of global wheat exports according to JP Morgan, and 60% of global sunflower supplies - a key ingredient in many processed foods - according to S&P Global.

Prices for other raw materials including fertilizers, metals and minerals are also predicted to go up. The costs of timber, tea and rice are among the few expected to fall.

"Wheat is one of the hardest agriculture exports to replace," according to a research note from the Bank of America. It points out that poor weather conditions in North America and China are likely to exacerbate the impact of Ukrainian supplies being reduced, something which will continue because the war has disrupted the spring planting season.

The note also suggests grain and oilseed shipments from Ukraine have fallen more than 80% because of the fighting and these lost exports, over the course of a year, "equate to about 10 days of world food supply".

The chief executive of Archer Daniels Midland, one of the world's four big food commodity traders, said he does not expect prices to come down soon.

As the US firm announced a 53% increase in net earnings for the first three months of this year, to $1.05bn, Juan Luciano said: "We expect reduced crop supplies - caused by the weak Canadian canola crop, the short South American crops, and now the disruptions in the Black Sea region - to drive continued tightness in global grain markets for the next few years".

Nagle, from the World Bank, said other countries can help solve the supply shortage caused by Ukraine's war in the medium term. However, a forecast 69% increase in fertilizer prices this year means "there's a real risk that as farmers start to use fewer fertilizers, agricultural yields will decline".

For commodities overall, the World Bank report said: "While prices generally are expected to peak in 2022, they are to remain much higher than previously forecast."

It added that "the outlook for commodity markets depends heavily on the duration of the war in Ukraine" and the disruption it causes to supply chains.
Comments

Oh ya 4 year ago
And rest assured that the USA did not cause any inflation by printing trillions of dollars in the last 2 years. Same way Zimbabwe, Argentina and the Weimar Republic and Venezuela had nothing to do with hyperinflation

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Early-Release Scheme Faces Fresh Scrutiny as Reoffending and Prison Recalls Rise
Police Phone Checks Followed Report on Murder of MI5 Agent Inside Sinn Féin
Drought Status Extended Across All of Wales as Heat and Dry Weather Deepen Environmental Strain
Record-Low Danube Exposes Probable Mammoth Remains in Bulgaria
US Says It Has Carried Out Heavy Strikes on Iran After Attempted Attacks on Its Forces
The chief executive of the popular gaming company laid off many employees and his pay rose to 38 million dollars
UK Employment Holds Steady as Wage Growth Remains Moderate
England to Introduce Artificial Intelligence into Secondary School Curriculum
Wales Launches £1.2 Billion Industrial Regeneration Programme
High Court Upholds UK Digital Surveillance Framework
Northern Ireland Reaches Budget Agreement on Infrastructure and Public Sector Pay
Home Office Expands Digital Border Checks Nationwide
UK Approves Major North Sea Wind and Carbon Capture Project
The World's Most Terrifying Smartphone: Recording, Documenting, and Reporting to the Regime
Scotland Approves Major Renewable Energy Expansion
UK and United States Sign AI and Semiconductor Cooperation Pact
UK Treasury Tightens Fiscal Controls After Gilt Market Volatility
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 4.5%
UK Unveils £10 Billion NHS Funding Overhaul and Workforce Reform
The AI User Nightmare: Private Claude Conversations Leaked to the Internet
UK: Former Football Association Leaders Call for World Cup Boycott Over FIFA Privatization Plan
Forbidden Love: China severs millions from their virtual partners
Over 24 Hours in the Air: Qantas Airbus Completes Record-Breaking Test Flight
Prince Harry Faces Significant Legal Costs After Insurance Shortfall
FirstGroup Sells Rail Software Business to Tracsis for £48 Million
Victoria and Albert Museum Staff Vote for Strike Action
Norwegian Teenager Convicted Over Contract Killing Plot in Britain
Royal Mail Raises Bulk Mailing Prices by 30%
Immigration Remains Britain's Top Public Concern, Ipsos Survey Finds
Prime Minister Says Social Care Reform Must Precede Assisted Dying Legislation
Ofgem Proposes Steep Grid Connection Charges for New Data Centers
Major Cyberattack Compromises UK Education and Police Data
Government Reviews Jurisdiction Over Crimes Involving US Military Personnel
England Declares Widespread Drought After Record Dry July
UK Commits £8.4 Billion to Dreadnought Nuclear Submarine Program
Zuckerberg Opposes US Ban on Chinese AI Models and Warns of Regulatory Capture
Massive Wildfires Ravage Southern Europe: Fatalities in Greece and Evacuations Across France, Spain, and Turkey
NHS Leaders Warn Royal Mail Tariff Increases Will Raise Administrative Costs
Immigration Remains the Public's Top Concern in Britain, Ipsos Poll Finds
Britain Approves 16 New Grid Storage Projects to Strengthen Electricity Network
London-Listed Merger Activity Climbs Even as IPO Market Remains Weak
Institute of Directors Warns High Energy Costs and Taxes Continue to Weigh on UK Businesses
North Sea Industry Calls for Faster Approval of £10 Billion Rosebank and Jackdaw Projects
UK Inflation Eases to 2.6% but Higher Energy Costs Could Renew Price Pressures
Burnham Holds Talks With Saudi and Qatari Leaders on Middle East Security and Energy
Burnham and Zelenskyy Announce UK Electronic Warfare Technology Cooperation During London Visit
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Launches Cross-Party Push for Social Care Reform in England
Trump says Israel ‘would not survive’ without US
France Evacuates Atlantic Coast Resorts as Wildfire Risk Rises Again
Magnitude 7.1 Earthquake Strikes Kumamoto as Rescuers Search Collapsed Buildings
×