London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Jul 03, 2026

Ukraine war to cause biggest price shock in 50 years: World Bank

Ukraine war to cause biggest price shock in 50 years: World Bank

The war in Ukraine is set to cause the "largest commodity shock" since the 1970s, the World Bank has warned.
In a new forecast, it said the disruption caused by the conflict would contribute to huge price rises for goods ranging from natural gas to wheat and cotton.

The increase in prices "is starting to have very large economic and humanitarian effects", Peter Nagle, a co-author of the report, told the BBC.

He said "households across the world are feeling the cost of living crisis".

"We're particularly worried about the poorest households since they spend a larger share of income on food and energy, so they're particularly vulnerable to this price spike," the senior economist at the World Bank added.

Energy prices are set to increase more than 50%, pushing up bills for households and businesses, the World Bank says.

The biggest rise will be in the price of natural gas in Europe, which is set to more than double in cost. Prices are forecast to fall next year and in 2024, but even then will remain 15% higher than they were last year.

The World Bank said this means that from the lows of April 2020 until the highs of March this year we have seen "the largest 23-month increase in energy prices since the 1973 oil price hike", when tensions in the Middle East sent prices soaring.

Similarly, oil prices are expected to remain elevated into 2024 with a barrel of the benchmark measure, Brent Crude, projected to average $100 this year, something which will lead to widespread inflation.

Russia produces about 11% of the world's oil, the third biggest share, but the report said "disruptions resulting from the war are expected to having a lasting negative effect" as sanctions mean that foreign companies leave and access to technology is reduced.

Russia currently provides 40% of the EU's gas and 27% of its oil, but European governments are moving to wean their countries off of supplies from Russia. That has helped push up global prices by creating more demand for supplies from elsewhere.

The World Bank commodity outlook also warned many foods are set to see steep rises in their costs. The UN food prices index already shows they are at their highest since records began 60 years ago.

Wheat is forecast to increase 42.7% and reach new record highs in dollar terms. Other notable increases will be 33.3% for barley, 20% for soybeans and 29.8% for oils and 41.8% for chicken. These increases reflect the fact that exports from Ukraine and Russia have fallen drastically.

Before the war the two countries accounted for 28.9% of global wheat exports according to JP Morgan, and 60% of global sunflower supplies - a key ingredient in many processed foods - according to S&P Global.

Prices for other raw materials including fertilizers, metals and minerals are also predicted to go up. The costs of timber, tea and rice are among the few expected to fall.

"Wheat is one of the hardest agriculture exports to replace," according to a research note from the Bank of America. It points out that poor weather conditions in North America and China are likely to exacerbate the impact of Ukrainian supplies being reduced, something which will continue because the war has disrupted the spring planting season.

The note also suggests grain and oilseed shipments from Ukraine have fallen more than 80% because of the fighting and these lost exports, over the course of a year, "equate to about 10 days of world food supply".

The chief executive of Archer Daniels Midland, one of the world's four big food commodity traders, said he does not expect prices to come down soon.

As the US firm announced a 53% increase in net earnings for the first three months of this year, to $1.05bn, Juan Luciano said: "We expect reduced crop supplies - caused by the weak Canadian canola crop, the short South American crops, and now the disruptions in the Black Sea region - to drive continued tightness in global grain markets for the next few years".

Nagle, from the World Bank, said other countries can help solve the supply shortage caused by Ukraine's war in the medium term. However, a forecast 69% increase in fertilizer prices this year means "there's a real risk that as farmers start to use fewer fertilizers, agricultural yields will decline".

For commodities overall, the World Bank report said: "While prices generally are expected to peak in 2022, they are to remain much higher than previously forecast."

It added that "the outlook for commodity markets depends heavily on the duration of the war in Ukraine" and the disruption it causes to supply chains.
Comments

Oh ya 4 year ago
And rest assured that the USA did not cause any inflation by printing trillions of dollars in the last 2 years. Same way Zimbabwe, Argentina and the Weimar Republic and Venezuela had nothing to do with hyperinflation

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Luxury bags take over the World Cup: style, status symbol, or just showing off?
National Productivity Institute Highlights Weak Business Investment Outside Southern England
UK High Court Orders Reassessment of Environmental Impact in Major Highway Project
UK Cyber Security Centre Warns of Rising Threat From State-Sponsored Digital Espionage
UK Education Secretary Launches National Reform of Apprenticeships and Vocational Training
Financial Conduct Authority Tightens Climate Risk Disclosure Requirements for Listed Firms
Rail Union Suspends Planned Strike Action to Enter Formal Negotiations With Operators
Northern Ireland Businesses Seek Clarity Over Post-Brexit Trade Rules
Welsh Government Launches Regional Growth Plan Targeting Transport and Digital Infrastructure
North Sea Wind Sector Attracts £5 Billion Investment Amid Expansion of Offshore Capacity
Scotland and UK Governments Establish New Framework for Coordinated Investment in Energy and Infrastructure
UK Government Launches Major Immigration and Border Policy Overhaul Review
Bank of England Signals Interest Rates to Remain Elevated Despite Easing Inflation Pressures
National Health Service Warns of Severe Winter Capacity Strain Across Hospital Trusts
Chancellor Orders Urgent Treasury Review Amid Concerns Over Structural Public Finance Gap
Prime Minister Unveils Sweeping Legislative Programme Focused on Housing, Health Service Reform and State Energy Plan
UK Parliamentary Committee Launches Inquiry Into Falling Primary School Rolls and Public Service Impact
UK House of Lords Debates Electoral Commission Powers and Political Finance Reform
UK Parliament Considers Expanding Carbon Rules to International Aviation and Shipping Emissions
UK Traffic Commissioner Revokes Hampshire Haulage Operator Licence Over Regulatory Failures
UK Parliament Examines Risks in Public Contracts Awarded to Technology Firm Palantir
UK Competition Watchdog Moves Toward More Flexible Merger Rules to Support Efficiency and Growth
UK Government Seeks Approval for £1.15 Trillion Public Spending Plan Amid Scrutiny Over Department Budgets
UK Parliament Debates Sweeping National Security and Steel Industry Nationalisation Bills
UK Government Issues Formal Apology for Historic Forced Adoption Practices and Announces £4 Million Support Scheme
UK DEFENCE AND TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY TILTS TOWARD SOVEREIGN CAPABILITY AND INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT
UK ECONOMIC POLICY OUTLOOK SHAPED BY LEADERSHIP TRANSITION AND FISCAL SIGNALS
STERLING STRENGTHENS AMID SHIFTING MONETARY OUTLOOK AND GLOBAL LABOUR MARKET SIGNALS
UK HPV VACCINATION PROGRAM NEARLY ELIMINATES CERVICAL CANCER DEATH RISK IN YOUNG WOMEN
UK EXPANDS PRISON SAFETY REVIEW AS GOVERNMENT SEEKS WIDER SYSTEM REFORM
UK DRIVES DIGITAL ASSETS STRATEGY WITH NEW STABLECOIN REGULATORY MODEL
UK TO EXPAND AI INFRASTRUCTURE THROUGH NEW EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGY PARTNERSHIP
UK LAUNCHES £15 BILLION DEFENCE TECH SHIFT TOWARD ADVANCED MILITARY SYSTEMS
CIVIL SERVICE FACES SHIFT IN POWER STRUCTURE AS REGIONAL GOVERNANCE PLANS EXPAND
WHITEHALL CONSIDERS MAJOR DECENTRALISATION PLAN WITH SECOND GOVERNMENT HUB IN MANCHESTER
UK TARGETS SERVICES EXPORT GROWTH IN TRADE TALKS WITH CHINA AMID GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS
POLICE WATCHDOG PROBES OFFICERS OVER HANDCUFFING OF DYING TEENAGER IN HAMPSHIRE CASE
UK REGULATORS UNVEIL DUAL OVERSIGHT FRAMEWORK FOR STABLECOINS AND DIGITAL ASSETS
KEIR STARMER ANNOUNCES £15 BILLION DEFENCE TECHNOLOGY BOOST IN FINAL MAJOR POLICY MOVE
ANDY BURNHAM SIGNALS STRICT FISCAL RULES AS LABOUR LEADERSHIP RACE SHAPES MARKET OUTLOOK
POUND STERLING HITS ONE-YEAR HIGH AS BANK OF ENGLAND SIGNALS NO IMMINENT RATE CUTS
UK Government Confirms Rejected Asylum Seekers to Remain Amid Enforcement Challenges
UK-China Economic Talks Focus on Services Trade and High-Value Sectors
Buckingham Palace Revamp Plans Unveiled to Modernise Royal and Public Facilities
Two Dead After Light Aircraft Crash in Essex Field, Investigation Underway
Princess Diana Marked at 65 With UK Tributes Reflecting on Her Public Legacy
England Teachers Face New Pay Cap Rules for Academy School Leaders Under Education Reform
Dublin Security Alert Escalates After Stabbing and Reports of Transport Disruption
UK Government Faces Scrutiny Over £10,000 Asylum Living Cost Contribution Requirement
England Prepares World Cup Knockout Match Against Democratic Republic of Congo
×