London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Dec 05, 2025

First step towards recession as economy shrinks, official GDP figures show

First step towards recession as economy shrinks, official GDP figures show

The UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter, early official figures show - prompting the chancellor to warn that the "tough road ahead" will require "extremely difficult decisions".

The figure marked the first step towards recession.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a dip in output for September, leaving gross domestic product (GDP) in negative territory for the July-September period as a whole.

The quarterly GDP is the value of all goods and services produced during a three-month period and is a measure of the health of the economy.

The official definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

It would be achieved should the economy also contract in the fourth quarter.



"I am under no illusion that there is a tough road ahead - one which will require extremely difficult decisions to restore confidence and economic stability," Mr Hunt said.

"But to achieve long-term, sustainable growth, we need to grip inflation, balance the books and get debt falling.
Advertisement

"There is no other way."

'Putin's war to blame'


The chancellor, who is preparing to deliver his crucial autumn statement next Thursday, blamed Russia's war in Ukraine for driving up inflation.

"We are not immune from the global challenge of high inflation and slow growth largely driven by Putin's illegal war in Ukraine and his weaponisation of gas supplies," he said.

"While the world economy faces extreme turbulence, the fundamental resilience of the British economy is cause for optimism in the long run."

Despite Mr Hunt's warning, the quarterly contraction was not as bad as had been expected.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected contraction of 0.5% after the upwardly revised 0.2% growth in the second quarter.

The outlook was seen as so dire by the Bank of England last week that it declared the UK was already in recession - outlining a scenario where the economy could contract for eight successive quarters from the third quarter of 2022.

That would make the downturn the most protracted since records began, though the depth of the plunge would be moderate in comparison to that after the 2008 financial crisis.

Impact of Queen's death


There was a sharp fall in GDP in September, which the ONS said was affected by the bank holiday for the funeral of the Queen. Some businesses closing or operating differently on this day resulted in a contraction of 0.6% for the month.

Even excluding the extra bank holiday in September, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said: "It's clear that underlying activity has weakened."


The downturn is being driven by the effects of falling consumer spending in the cost of living crisis, which has resulted in an economy 0.4% smaller than the COVID-19 pandemic.

Costs started rising globally because demand was outstripping supply at the end of lockdowns.

Then an economic bombshell was to exacerbate the inflation problem as Russia invaded Ukraine in February - forcing up costs of many core commodities such as oil, gas, wheat and other foods.

The consequences, which include the impact of Western sanctions on Moscow, forced up prices that were then passed down supply chains to the consumer.

Rising interest rates to tackle inflation, not only in the UK but across large parts of the world, have forced up borrowing costs to squeeze spending power even more.

UK borrowers have endured additional pain after the Truss government's mini-budget sparked a crisis of confidence in the UK public finances on financial markets, the damage from which is still being felt by mortgage customers in particular.

A weaker pound has also added to inflation because it makes the cost of imports more expensive.

The chancellor faces an uphill battle in the autumn statement.

"A contracting economy makes the autumn statement much more challenging, because it means less tax revenue for the government, while aggressive spending cuts and tax rises would drive a longer and more damaging downturn," Suren Thiru, economics director for the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said.

Mr Hunt has been warned against turning to austerity.

"A turn to a more austere fiscal policy expected from next week's autumn statement could contribute to prolonging any downturn," said Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK.

"Interest rate rises and the prospect of the Bank of England raising them even further could exacerbate the stalemate in the UK housing market, causing more pronounced cutbacks in spending."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Inquiry Finds Putin ‘Morally Responsible’ for 2018 Novichok Death — London Imposes Broad Sanctions on GRU
India backs down on plan to mandate government “Sanchar Saathi” app on all smartphones
King Charles Welcomes German President Steinmeier to UK in First State Visit by Berlin in 27 Years
UK Plans Major Cutback to Jury Trials as Crown Court Backlog Nears 80,000
UK Government to Significantly Limit Jury Trials in England and Wales
U.S. and U.K. Seal Drug-Pricing Deal: Britain Agrees to Pay More, U.S. Lifts Tariffs
UK Postpones Decision Yet Again on China’s Proposed Mega-Embassy in London
Head of UK Budget Watchdog Resigns After Premature Leak of Reeves’ Budget Report
Car-sharing giant Zipcar to exit UK market by end of 2025
Reports of Widespread Drone Deployment Raise Privacy and Security Questions in the UK
UK Signals Security Concerns Over China While Pursuing Stronger Trade Links
Google warns of AI “irrationality” just as Gemini 3 launch rattles markets
Top Consultancies Freeze Starting Salaries as AI Threatens ‘Pyramid’ Model
Macron Says Washington Pressuring EU to Delay Enforcement of Digital-Regulation Probes Against Meta, TikTok and X
UK’s DragonFire Laser Downs High-Speed Drones as £316m Deal Speeds Naval Deployment
UK Chancellor Rejects Claims She Misled Public on Fiscal Outlook Ahead of Budget
Starmer Defends Autumn Budget as Finance Chief Faces Accusations of Misleading Public Finances
EU Firms Struggle with 3,000-Hour Paperwork Load — While Automakers Fear De Facto 2030 Petrol Car Ban
White House launches ‘Hall of Shame’ site to publicly condemn media outlets for alleged bias
UK Budget’s New EV Mileage Tax Undercuts Case for Plug-In Hybrids
UK Government Launches National Inquiry into ‘Grooming Gangs’ After US Warning and Rising Public Outcry
Taylor Swift Extends U.K. Chart Reign as ‘The Fate of Ophelia’ Hits Six Weeks at No. 1
250 Still Missing in the Massive Fire, 94 Killed. One Day After the Disaster: Survivor Rescued on the 16th Floor
Trump: National Guard Soldier Who Was Shot in Washington Has Died; Second Soldier Fighting for His Life
UK Chancellor Reeves Defends Tax Rises as Essential to Reduce Child Poverty and Stabilise Public Finances
No Evidence Found for Claim That UK Schools Are Shifting to Teaching American English
European Powers Urge Israel to Halt West Bank Settler Violence Amid Surge in Attacks
"I Would Have Given Her a Kidney": She Lent Bezos’s Ex-Wife $1,000 — and Received Millions in Return
European States Approve First-ever Military-Grade Surveillance Network via ESA
UK to Slash Key Pension Tax Perk, Targeting High Earners Under New Budget
UK Government Announces £150 Annual Cut to Household Energy Bills Through Levy Reforms
UK Court Hears Challenge to Ban on Palestine Action as Critics Decry Heavy-Handed Measures
Investors Rush Into UK Gilts and Sterling After Budget Eases Fiscal Concerns
UK to Raise Online Betting Taxes by £1.1 Billion Under New Budget — Firms Warn of Fallout
Lamine Yamal? The ‘Heir to Messi’ Lost to Barcelona — and the Kingdom Is in a Frenzy
Warner Music Group Drops Suit Against Suno, Launches Licensed AI-Music Deal
HP to Cut up to 6,000 Jobs Globally as It Ramps Up AI Integration
MediaWorld Sold iPad Air for €15 — Then Asked Customers to Return Them or Pay More
UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer Promises ‘Full-Time’ Education for All Children as School Attendance Slips
UK Extends Sugar Tax to Sweetened Milkshakes and Lattes in 2028 Health Push
UK Government Backs £49 Billion Plan for Heathrow Third Runway and Expansion
UK Gambling Firms Report £1bn Surge in Annual Profits as Pressure Mounts for Higher Betting Taxes
UK Shares Advance Ahead of Budget as Financials and Consumer Staples Lead Gains
Domino’s UK CEO Andrew Rennie Steps Down Amid Strategic Reset
UK Economy Stalls as Reeves Faces First Budget Test
UK Economy’s Weak Start Adds Pressure on Prime Minister Starmer
UK Government Acknowledges Billionaire Exodus Amid Tax Rise Concerns
UK Budget 2025: Markets Brace as Chancellor Faces Fiscal Tightrope
UK Unveils Strategic Plan to Secure Critical Mineral Supply Chains
UK Taskforce Calls for Radical Reset of Nuclear Regulation to Cut Costs and Accelerate Build
×