London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Feb 12, 2026

First step towards recession as economy shrinks, official GDP figures show

First step towards recession as economy shrinks, official GDP figures show

The UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the third quarter, early official figures show - prompting the chancellor to warn that the "tough road ahead" will require "extremely difficult decisions".

The figure marked the first step towards recession.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a dip in output for September, leaving gross domestic product (GDP) in negative territory for the July-September period as a whole.

The quarterly GDP is the value of all goods and services produced during a three-month period and is a measure of the health of the economy.

The official definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

It would be achieved should the economy also contract in the fourth quarter.



"I am under no illusion that there is a tough road ahead - one which will require extremely difficult decisions to restore confidence and economic stability," Mr Hunt said.

"But to achieve long-term, sustainable growth, we need to grip inflation, balance the books and get debt falling.
Advertisement

"There is no other way."

'Putin's war to blame'


The chancellor, who is preparing to deliver his crucial autumn statement next Thursday, blamed Russia's war in Ukraine for driving up inflation.

"We are not immune from the global challenge of high inflation and slow growth largely driven by Putin's illegal war in Ukraine and his weaponisation of gas supplies," he said.

"While the world economy faces extreme turbulence, the fundamental resilience of the British economy is cause for optimism in the long run."

Despite Mr Hunt's warning, the quarterly contraction was not as bad as had been expected.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected contraction of 0.5% after the upwardly revised 0.2% growth in the second quarter.

The outlook was seen as so dire by the Bank of England last week that it declared the UK was already in recession - outlining a scenario where the economy could contract for eight successive quarters from the third quarter of 2022.

That would make the downturn the most protracted since records began, though the depth of the plunge would be moderate in comparison to that after the 2008 financial crisis.

Impact of Queen's death


There was a sharp fall in GDP in September, which the ONS said was affected by the bank holiday for the funeral of the Queen. Some businesses closing or operating differently on this day resulted in a contraction of 0.6% for the month.

Even excluding the extra bank holiday in September, the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said: "It's clear that underlying activity has weakened."


The downturn is being driven by the effects of falling consumer spending in the cost of living crisis, which has resulted in an economy 0.4% smaller than the COVID-19 pandemic.

Costs started rising globally because demand was outstripping supply at the end of lockdowns.

Then an economic bombshell was to exacerbate the inflation problem as Russia invaded Ukraine in February - forcing up costs of many core commodities such as oil, gas, wheat and other foods.

The consequences, which include the impact of Western sanctions on Moscow, forced up prices that were then passed down supply chains to the consumer.

Rising interest rates to tackle inflation, not only in the UK but across large parts of the world, have forced up borrowing costs to squeeze spending power even more.

UK borrowers have endured additional pain after the Truss government's mini-budget sparked a crisis of confidence in the UK public finances on financial markets, the damage from which is still being felt by mortgage customers in particular.

A weaker pound has also added to inflation because it makes the cost of imports more expensive.

The chancellor faces an uphill battle in the autumn statement.

"A contracting economy makes the autumn statement much more challenging, because it means less tax revenue for the government, while aggressive spending cuts and tax rises would drive a longer and more damaging downturn," Suren Thiru, economics director for the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said.

Mr Hunt has been warned against turning to austerity.

"A turn to a more austere fiscal policy expected from next week's autumn statement could contribute to prolonging any downturn," said Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK.

"Interest rate rises and the prospect of the Bank of England raising them even further could exacerbate the stalemate in the UK housing market, causing more pronounced cutbacks in spending."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Document Suggests Prince Andrew Shared UK Briefing on Afghan Investment Opportunities with Jeffrey Epstein
We will protect them from the digital Wild West.’ Another country will ban social media for under-16s
McDonald's Shortens Breakfast Hours in Australia Due to Egg Shortage
Heineken announces cut of 6,000 jobs due to declining beer demand
Beijing Brands UK Hong Kong Visa Expansion ‘Despicable and Reprehensible’ After Jimmy Lai Sentencing
Tesco Chief Warns UK Is ‘Sleepwalking’ Toward a Joblessness Crisis
Trump’s ‘Act of Great Stupidity’ Comment on UK Chagos Deal Reverberates Through Diplomacy and Strategy
New U.S. filings say Jeffrey Epstein repaid Les Wexner one hundred million dollars after theft allegation
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick acknowledges 2012 visit to Jeffrey Epstein’s private island as lawmakers scrutinise past ties
Helsing and Stark Defence loitering-munition drones and Germany’s race to industrialise battlefield autonomy
UK orders deletion of Courtsdesk court-data archive, reigniting the fight over who controls public justice records
UK Police Review Fresh Claims Involving Prince Andrew as Senior Royals Respond to Epstein Files
Keir Starmer’s Premiership Faces Unprecedented Strain as Epstein Fallout Deepens
Starmer Vows to Stay in Office as UK Government Faces Turmoil After Epstein Fallout
China and UK Signal Tentative Reset with Commitment to Steadier, Professionally Managed Relations
UK Confirms Imminent Increase in ETA Fee to £20 as Entry Rules Tighten
UK Signals Possible Seizure of Russia-Linked ‘Shadow Fleet’ Tanker in Escalation of Sanctions Enforcement
Epstein Scandal Piles Unprecedented Pressure on UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Leadership
UK’s ‘Most Romantic Village’ Celebrates Valentine’s Day and Explores the Festival’s Rich History
The Implications of Expanding Voting Rights to Non-EU Foreign Residents in France
Ghislaine Maxwell to Testify Before US Congress on February 9
Al.com Acquired by Crypto.com Founder for $70 Million
Apple iPhone Lockdown Mode blocks FBI data access in journalist device seizure
Belgium: Man Charged with Rape After Faking Payment to Sex Worker
KPMG Urges Auditor to Relay AI Cost Savings
US and Iran to Begin Nuclear Talks in Oman
Winklevoss-Led Gemini to Slash a Quarter of Jobs and Exit European and Australian Markets
Canada Opens First Consulate in Greenland Amid Rising Geopolitical Tensions
China unveils plans for a 'Death Star' capable of launching missile strikes from space
NASA allows astronauts to take smartphones on upcoming missions to capture special moments.
Trump administration to launch TrumpRx.gov for direct drug purchases
Investigation Launched at Winter Olympics Over Ski Jumpers Injecting Hyaluronic Acid
U.S. State Department Issues Urgent Travel Warning for Citizens to Leave Iran Immediately
Wall Street Erases All Gains of 2026; Bitcoin Plummets 14% to $63,000
Epstein Case Documents Reignite Global Scrutiny of Political and Business Elites
Eighty-one-year-old man in the United States fatally shoots Uber driver after scam threat
UK Royal Family Faces Intensifying Strain as Epstein-Linked Revelations Rock the Institution
Political Censorship: French Prosecutors Raid Musk’s X Offices in Paris
AI Invented “Hot Springs” — Tourists Arrived and Were Shocked
Tech Mega-Donors Power Trump-Aligned Fundraising Surge to $429 Million Ahead of 2026 Midterms
UK Pharma Watchdog Rules Sanofi Breached Industry Code With RSV Vaccine Claims Against Pfizer
Melania Documentary Opens Modestly in UK with Mixed Global Box Office Performance
Starmer Arrives in Shanghai to Promote British Trade and Investment
Harry Styles, Anthony Joshua and Premier League Stars Among UK’s Top Taxpayers
New Epstein Files Include Images of Former Prince Andrew Kneeling Over Unidentified Woman
Starmer Urges Former Prince Andrew to Testify Before US Congress About Epstein Ties
Starmer Extends Invitation to Japan’s Prime Minister After Strategic Tokyo Talks
Skupski and Harrison Clinch Australian Open Men’s Doubles Title in Melbourne
DOJ Unveils Millions of Epstein Files, Fueling Global Scrutiny of Elite Networks
France Begins Phasing Out Zoom and Microsoft Teams to Advance Digital Sovereignty
×