London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Jun 23, 2025

Energy bills set to dip below energy price guarantee level from July, forecaster predicts

Energy bills set to dip below energy price guarantee level from July, forecaster predicts

A closely watched forecast suggests that while the taxpayer may be off the hook for energy support to households from the summer, bills will still be very high by historical standards.

A fall in wholesale energy costs means average annual bills could soon come in below the level of the government's energy support programme, according to a leading forecaster.

Average annual bills under the regulator Ofgem's price cap mechanism are expected to drop to around £2,800 a year from July, Cornwall Insight predicted.

This would mean the government's energy price guarantee (EPG), which limits how much a typical household pays for its wholesale energy, would no longer cost the taxpayer anything - potentially saving billions.



At the moment, if wholesale costs are above a certain level for electricity and gas, the government pays the excess.

This means an average bill of £2,500 for British households, a figure that will rise to £3,000 from April as the EPG's level of support is eased back.

Cornwall Insight predicted average annual bills of £3,545.31 between April and June - dropping sharply during the summer months from July to the £2,800 estimate.

The estimated bill is £300 above the current capped EPG rate of £2,500, but £200 below what the cap will be this summer after the EPG rises to £3,000 in April.

The EPG scheme, introduced by Liz Truss's short-lived government on 1 October, protects families from rises in energy costs by limiting the amount energy companies can charge per unit of energy used.

Behind the fall in prices is a drop in the price of wholesale gas, which dictates the overall cost of energy. Prices spiked throughout last year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Consumers have been warned that bills will remain higher than in 2019, before the pandemic began.

Prices have already fallen from the high in August but it will take time for the effects of price decreases to work their way to customers. Full effects will not be seen until the third quarter of the year, from July to September, as energy suppliers buy energy ahead of time and falling day to day prices have a limited impact in the short-term.

Even if the current, comparatively low levels of wholesale prices are maintained, pressure on government to provide monetary support for bills will still remain as prices stay high. The estimated £2,800 a year cost is more than double the cost of 2021.

"While it is positive to see a drop in the price cap forecast, household bills are set to remain high," said Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight said.

"With the Energy Price Guarantee rising in April, the second half of the year will still see a typical household facing bills that are well above historic levels and facing costs that many can ill afford."

Energy bill supports will need to be reviewed, he added. "It is clear that blanket measures of bill support are not providing adequate protection for the most vulnerable and more targeted measures including social tariffs may be something for the government to consider."

"While the details of future support are best left up to the judgement of politicians, the forecasts demonstrate we must look beyond the current policy if we are to see a fairer, more cost-efficient and enduring way of reducing household energy bills for those who need it the most."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Airlines Evaluate Flight Cancellations Amid Escalating US-Iran Tensions
Starmer Invites Innovators to Join Government Talent Scheme
UK Economy’s Strong Opening Quarter Shows Signs of Cooling
Harrods Seeks Court Order to Secure Al Fayed Estate for Victims
BA and Singapore Airlines Cancel Dubai Flights Amid Middle East Tensions
Trump Faces Backlash from MAGA Base Over Iran Strikes
Meta Bets $14 B on Alexandr Wang to Drive AI Ambitions
WATCH: Israeli forces show the aftermath of a massive airstrike at Iran's Isfahan nuclear site
FedEx Founder Fred Smith, ‘Heart and Soul’ of the Company, Dies at 80
Chinese Factories Shift Away from U.S. Amid Trump‑Era Tariffs
Pimco Seizes Opportunity in Japan’s Dislocated Bond Market
Labubu Doll Drives Pop Mart to Status as China’s Most Valuable Toy Maker
Global Coal Demand Defies Paris Accord Goals
We have new information and breaking details to share about what is shaping up to be a historic air campaign tonight
Six Massive Bombs Dropped on Fordow; Trump: 'A Historic Moment for the U.S., Israel, and the World'
Fordow: Deeply Buried Iranian Enrichment Site in U.S.–Israel Crosshairs
United States Conducts Precision Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites
US strikes Iran nuclear sites, Trump says
Pakistan to nominate Trump for Nobel Peace Prize.
BBC Demands Perplexity AI Immediately Stop Using Its Content
Telegram Founder: I Will Leave My Fortune to Over 100 of My Children
Political Turmoil Resurfaces in Belgium Amid Economic Concerns
Fed policymakers divided on timing of interest rate cuts
Trump signals imminent agreement with Harvard University
Inheritance tax referendum alarms Swiss billionaire community
Japan cancels bilateral security meeting amid US defence demands
AI skeptic Emily Bender warns that ‘the emperor has no clothes’
Israel Confirms Assassination of Quds Force Commander in Tehran
16 Billion Login Credentials Leaked in Unprecedented Cybersecurity Breach
Senate hearing on who was 'really running' Biden White House kicks off
Iranian Military Officers Reportedly Seek Contact with Reza Pahlavi, Signal Intent to Defect
FBI and Senate Investigate Allegations of Chinese Plot to Influence the 2020 Election in Biden’s Favor Using Fake U.S. Driver’s Licenses
Vietnam Emerges as Luxury Yacht Destination for Ultra‑Rich
Plans to Sell Dutch Embassy in Bangkok Face Local Opposition
China's Iranian Oil Imports Face Disruption Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Trump's $5 Million 'Trump Card' Visa Program Draws Nearly 70,000 Applicants
DGCA Finds No Major Safety Concerns in Air India's Boeing 787 Fleet
Airlines Reroute Flights Amid Expanding Middle East Conflict Zones
Elon Musk's xAI Seeks $9.3 Billion in Funding Amid AI Expansion
Trump Demands Iran's Unconditional Surrender Amid Escalating Conflict
Israeli Airstrike Targets Iranian State TV in Central Tehran
President Trump is leaving the G7 summit early and has ordered the National Security Council to the Situation Room
Taiwan Imposes Export Ban on Chips to Huawei and SMIC
Israel has just announced plans to strike Tehran again, and in response, Trump has urged people to evacuate
Netanyahu Signals Potential Regime Change in Iran
Juncker Criticizes EU Inaction on Trump Tariffs
EU Proposes Ban on New Russian Gas Contracts
Analysts Warn Iran May Resort to Unconventional Warfare
Iranian Regime Faces Existential Threat Amid Conflict
Energy Infrastructure Becomes War Zone in Middle East
×