London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 24, 2026

Economy shrinks - with Jubilee partly to blame

Economy shrinks - with Jubilee partly to blame

A big fall in economic growth in June was partly caused by the extra bank holiday to celebrate the Queen's Platinum Jubilee.

The UK's economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, according to official estimates.

It follows a positive first quarter, in which the economy grew by 0.8%.

Last week, the Bank of England predicted that the UK will fall in to a recession by the autumn and could have more than a year of subsequent economic contraction.

Although there was some growth in April, May and June in service activities such as travel agencies as COVID-19 restrictions were lifted, the ending of the test and trace initiative dealt a blow to the economy.

"Health was the biggest reason the economy contracted as both the test and trace and vaccine programmes were wound down, while many retailers also had a tough quarter," said Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics.

"These were partially offset by growth in hotels, bars, hairdressers and outdoor events across the quarter, partly as a result of people celebrating the Platinum Jubilee."

There was a large fall in June of 0.6%, partly caused by the significant reduction in services spending as coronavirus test and trace was phased out, and partly because the Platinum Jubilee meant that there were two fewer working days that month.

The UK's economic performance was worse in the second quarter than that of countries such as Canada, Italy, France, and Germany, with underlying data showing that economic pressures were beginning to take hold on consumer spending.

Private consumption fell by 0.2% in the second quarter - an indication that record high prices for some products were stopping people from spending.

But it is too soon to say that the UK is in a recession, according to KPMG.

"It is too early to call a recession despite output fall," Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said.

"Households are already bruised by rising inflation, which is putting a squeeze on real incomes, while rising interest rates are making servicing mortgages less affordable," Ms Selfin said.

Nadhim Zahawi, the chancellor, told Sky News that he rejected the idea that the government had been asleep at the wheel throughout this crisis, and blamed Russian president Vladimir Putin for record energy prices.

"I don't recognise that," he said, pointing to an existing package of support which includes a £400 energy bill discount for all households.

But Mr Zahawi refused to say that more direct help for struggling families would be inevitable this winter.

"We're looking at all the options of what additional help we can deliver for families," he said.

On the subject of taxing the profits of energy companies, Mr Zahawi said: "There are no easy answers to this...every decision is a tough decision."

The latest data comes after dire forecasts from the Bank of England of a 15-month recession - five consecutive quarters of economic contraction.

Speaking after the Bank hiked interest rates by 50 basis points (0.5%) this month in an attempt to deal with the highest rate of inflation in more than 40 years, Governor Andrew Bailey said GDP would probably fall to 1.25% in 2023 and 0.25% in 2024.

If this forecast is borne out, it would be the first instance of two years of annual economic contraction since the 1960s.

But Ms Selfin said that KPMG was not as pessimistic as the central bank.

"We expect a slightly shorter and milder recession than the Bank of England pencilled in last week," she said.

"The main difference stems from our view that energy prices will eventually subside, contributing less to inflation, while the Bank's forecast means that prices stay elevated over the next three years."

People are facing massive rises in energy bills, with consultancy Cornwall Insight predicting that the price cap is expected to reach about £3,582 a year for the average household from October.

This is an increase from the £3,359 predicted earlier this month, and compares to the price cap last October of £1,277.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Royal Navy Commandos Complete Maritime Operations Training With US Navy SEALs
Vistry Profit Warning Adds to Concerns Over UK Housebuilding Conditions
UK Commits £343 Million to Major Expansion of Community Mental Health Services
Five Eyes Partners Back UK-Led Campaign Against Global Fraud Networks
UK Businesses Gain Full Access to £13 Trillion CPTPP Trading Bloc
UK Allocates Nearly £10 Billion for Council, Social and Affordable Housing
Chancellor John Healey Unveils Deregulation Drive to Accelerate UK Investment and Growth
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Sets Out Post-Brexit Foreign Policy Vision at United Nations
UK Reassesses Chagos Arrangements as Burnham Seeks New Path on Diego Garcia
Key Trends to Watch
Government’s “Buy British” Procurement Push Targets More Domestic Jobs and Industrial Capacity
Scotland Launches Four-Year Flood Resilience Programme With New Community Funding
Low-Income Renters Face Record Gap Between Housing Support and Private Rents
UK and US Test Torpedo Launch From British Undersea Drone in Defence Technology Milestone
Britain Pushes Artificial Intelligence Security Onto United Nations Security Council Agenda
Treasury Committee Defends Office for Budget Responsibility Independence Amid Fiscal Pressure
Scotland Records Eleven Per Cent Rise in Drug-Use Deaths as Cocaine and Nitazenes Drive Concern
Welsh Government Sets Four-Year Programme Around Health, Living Costs, Jobs and Housing
Study Finds Most People With High Blood Pressure in England Remain Undiagnosed
Britain Plans First National Workplace Health System to Tackle Economic Inactivity
England to Introduce Vocational GCSEs in Major Secondary Education Reform
UK Elevates Climate and Nature Risks to National Security Priority
Andy Burnham and Donald Trump Put Trade at Centre of First Major Bilateral Meeting
Andy Burnham and Ursula von der Leyen Push Ahead With Closer UK-European Union Economic Ties
UK Government Borrowing Jumps to Eighteen Point Three Billion Pounds Ahead of October Budget
Piddington Residents Back Symbolic Independence Vote Over Asylum Accommodation Plan
Reform UK Names Helen Jenner as New Leader in Wales
England Expands Devolution of Transport, Skills and Economic Development Powers
Liberal Democrats Call for Temporary Fuel Duty Cut to Ease Cost-of-Living Pressure
UK Farmers Warn Drought Has Caused Crop Failures and Reduced Harvests
UK Fixed Mortgage Rates Approach 6% as Lenders Raise Borrowing Costs
YouGov Poll Puts Labour at 23% With Conservatives and Reform UK on 21%
Badenoch Presses Burnham to Increase Defence Spending and Cut Welfare Costs
UK Military Figures Warn of Growing Threats to Undersea Infrastructure and National Readiness
BP Moves Ahead With Sale of UK North Sea Oil and Gas Business
UK and ASEAN Endorse New Framework for Trade and Economic Cooperation
UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Three-Year Low as Borrowing Costs and Job Concerns Rise
UK Inflation Rises to 3.1% as Motor Fuel Costs Push Prices Higher
Bank of England Sets Multi-Year Plan to Wind Down Quantitative Easing Holdings
UK Borrowing Rises to £18.3 Billion in August Ahead of October Budget
Michelin Guide Faces Industry Questions Over Restaurant Inspection Coverage
English Woodlands Face Renewed Weather Stress From Dry Conditions and Strong Winds
Research Finds Extensive Alcohol, Gambling and Unhealthy Food Branding During 2026 World Cup
Five Charged After Newborn Baby Dies From Stab Wounds in Sheffield
BT Could Reap £2 Billion From Recycling Copper as Full-Fibre Network Expands
FCA Urges Young Adults to Trace £1.5 Billion in Unclaimed Child Trust Funds
Reform UK Names Helen Jenner as New Leader in Wales After Dan Thomas Steps Down
Resolution Foundation Calls for Broad-Based Tax Rises to Fund Higher UK Defence Spending
Ed Davey Calls for Global Treaty to Halt Development of Super-Intelligent AI
Scotland Consults on Legal Price Caps for Essential Foods
×