London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 17, 2026

Economy shrinks - with Jubilee partly to blame

Economy shrinks - with Jubilee partly to blame

A big fall in economic growth in June was partly caused by the extra bank holiday to celebrate the Queen's Platinum Jubilee.

The UK's economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, according to official estimates.

It follows a positive first quarter, in which the economy grew by 0.8%.

Last week, the Bank of England predicted that the UK will fall in to a recession by the autumn and could have more than a year of subsequent economic contraction.

Although there was some growth in April, May and June in service activities such as travel agencies as COVID-19 restrictions were lifted, the ending of the test and trace initiative dealt a blow to the economy.

"Health was the biggest reason the economy contracted as both the test and trace and vaccine programmes were wound down, while many retailers also had a tough quarter," said Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics.

"These were partially offset by growth in hotels, bars, hairdressers and outdoor events across the quarter, partly as a result of people celebrating the Platinum Jubilee."

There was a large fall in June of 0.6%, partly caused by the significant reduction in services spending as coronavirus test and trace was phased out, and partly because the Platinum Jubilee meant that there were two fewer working days that month.

The UK's economic performance was worse in the second quarter than that of countries such as Canada, Italy, France, and Germany, with underlying data showing that economic pressures were beginning to take hold on consumer spending.

Private consumption fell by 0.2% in the second quarter - an indication that record high prices for some products were stopping people from spending.

But it is too soon to say that the UK is in a recession, according to KPMG.

"It is too early to call a recession despite output fall," Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said.

"Households are already bruised by rising inflation, which is putting a squeeze on real incomes, while rising interest rates are making servicing mortgages less affordable," Ms Selfin said.

Nadhim Zahawi, the chancellor, told Sky News that he rejected the idea that the government had been asleep at the wheel throughout this crisis, and blamed Russian president Vladimir Putin for record energy prices.

"I don't recognise that," he said, pointing to an existing package of support which includes a £400 energy bill discount for all households.

But Mr Zahawi refused to say that more direct help for struggling families would be inevitable this winter.

"We're looking at all the options of what additional help we can deliver for families," he said.

On the subject of taxing the profits of energy companies, Mr Zahawi said: "There are no easy answers to this...every decision is a tough decision."

The latest data comes after dire forecasts from the Bank of England of a 15-month recession - five consecutive quarters of economic contraction.

Speaking after the Bank hiked interest rates by 50 basis points (0.5%) this month in an attempt to deal with the highest rate of inflation in more than 40 years, Governor Andrew Bailey said GDP would probably fall to 1.25% in 2023 and 0.25% in 2024.

If this forecast is borne out, it would be the first instance of two years of annual economic contraction since the 1960s.

But Ms Selfin said that KPMG was not as pessimistic as the central bank.

"We expect a slightly shorter and milder recession than the Bank of England pencilled in last week," she said.

"The main difference stems from our view that energy prices will eventually subside, contributing less to inflation, while the Bank's forecast means that prices stay elevated over the next three years."

People are facing massive rises in energy bills, with consultancy Cornwall Insight predicting that the price cap is expected to reach about £3,582 a year for the average household from October.

This is an increase from the £3,359 predicted earlier this month, and compares to the price cap last October of £1,277.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Asthma Charity Warns of Major Gaps in Childhood Diagnostic Testing Across England
TUC Chief Paul Nowak Appointed to Bank of England Court
Bristol Opens £35 Million Deep-Tech Innovation Hub at Temple Quarter
Oxfordshire Village Votes Symbolically to Leave UK Over Asylum Housing Plan
Andy Burnham Deepens UK Defense and AI Cooperation With NATO and Canada
UK Government Announces Neonatal Safety Reforms After Thirlwall Inquiry
Bank of England Weighs Rate Decision as UK Inflation Rises to 3.1%
UK Health Unions Warn of Staffing Pressures as Public and Private Pay Growth Diverges
Rockstar Games Faces Tribunal Claims From 23 Former Grand Theft Auto VI Developers
UK Treasury Faces Tighter Budget Constraints as Borrowing Costs and Pension Spending Rise
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Sets Out Ten-Year Plan for Greater Public Oversight of Utilities
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Services and Technology Activity Strengthen
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland Leaders Coordinate Push for UK Constitutional Change
Police Tighten Public-Order Measures After Anti-Immigration Protests in Dover and Portsmouth
UK Ministers Pressed for Answers After US Diplomat Accused of Child Abuse Images Leaves Britain
Jaguar Land Rover Pursues NATO Defense Contracts for Defender Vehicles
British Service Member Dies in Road Accident While Deployed in Ukraine
George Osborne Calls for Britain to Rejoin EU Customs Union
Anthropic Chief Dario Amodei Urges Faster UK Action on Advanced AI Risks
UK State Pension Set for 3.9% Rise Under Triple Lock
UK Labour Market Cools as Payrolled Employment Continues to Decline
Reform UK’s £72 Million in Donations Faces Scrutiny Under Proposed Retrospective Funding Rules
UK Doctors Warn Expanded Pharmacy First Scheme Could Put Patients at Risk
British Airlines Cut Short-Haul Capacity as Jet Fuel Costs Rise
UK News Publishers Forecast 40% Search Traffic Drop as AI Overviews Expand
Axel Springer Wins Approval for £575 Million Daily Telegraph Acquisition
London Mayor Sadiq Khan Opposes Heathrow Third Runway Over Climate Targets
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland Leaders Hold Summit Seeking Greater Autonomy
UK Energy Price Cap Set to Rise to £1,723 in October
UK Treasury Warns Middle East Conflict Is Threatening Economic Growth
Labour Moves to Retrospectively Cap Overseas Political Donations After Reform UK Funding Surge
HMRC Warns Nearly Seven Million Adults Are Unclear About State Pension Entitlements
UK Parliament Passes Sovereign Grant Reform Before Conference Recess
British Rail Passengers Gain Automatic Right to Switch Operators During Disruptions
Burnham Hosts Downing Street Business Summit as UK Fiscal Pressure Builds
Labour Government Moves to Challenge £72 Million in Reform UK Crypto Donations
UK Advertising Industry Warns Wider Junk Food Rules Could Put £1 Billion in Media Spending at Risk
Cornwall Opens Devolution Talks With UK Government Over Transport and Local Services
UK Parliament Considers Sovereign Grant Reform Setting Royal Funding at £99.9 Million
Trades Union Congress Calls for Income-Based Energy Tariff Funded by Higher Bank Levy
UK Prime Minister Rejects Second Scottish Independence Referendum
House of Lords Begins Scrutiny of Bill to Lower UK Voting Age to 16
Anthropic Says Claude Was Exploited in Weapons-Related and State-Linked Cyber Activity
Institute of Directors Urges UK Government to Avoid Business Tax Increases in Autumn Budget
Rising Gilt Yields Cut UK Fiscal Headroom to About £13 Billion Ahead of Budget
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Services and Technology Activity Strengthen
UK Government Promises Clearer Student Loan Guidance After Repayment Backlash
Charities Warn Unpaid Carers May Die Before Receiving Government Compensation
Dover Unrest Prompts Review of UK Counter-Extremism Strategy
Celtic Summit Leaders Reassert Right to Pursue Independence From UK
×