London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Sep 03, 2026

Economy shrinks - with Jubilee partly to blame

Economy shrinks - with Jubilee partly to blame

A big fall in economic growth in June was partly caused by the extra bank holiday to celebrate the Queen's Platinum Jubilee.

The UK's economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, according to official estimates.

It follows a positive first quarter, in which the economy grew by 0.8%.

Last week, the Bank of England predicted that the UK will fall in to a recession by the autumn and could have more than a year of subsequent economic contraction.

Although there was some growth in April, May and June in service activities such as travel agencies as COVID-19 restrictions were lifted, the ending of the test and trace initiative dealt a blow to the economy.

"Health was the biggest reason the economy contracted as both the test and trace and vaccine programmes were wound down, while many retailers also had a tough quarter," said Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics at the Office for National Statistics.

"These were partially offset by growth in hotels, bars, hairdressers and outdoor events across the quarter, partly as a result of people celebrating the Platinum Jubilee."

There was a large fall in June of 0.6%, partly caused by the significant reduction in services spending as coronavirus test and trace was phased out, and partly because the Platinum Jubilee meant that there were two fewer working days that month.

The UK's economic performance was worse in the second quarter than that of countries such as Canada, Italy, France, and Germany, with underlying data showing that economic pressures were beginning to take hold on consumer spending.

Private consumption fell by 0.2% in the second quarter - an indication that record high prices for some products were stopping people from spending.

But it is too soon to say that the UK is in a recession, according to KPMG.

"It is too early to call a recession despite output fall," Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said.

"Households are already bruised by rising inflation, which is putting a squeeze on real incomes, while rising interest rates are making servicing mortgages less affordable," Ms Selfin said.

Nadhim Zahawi, the chancellor, told Sky News that he rejected the idea that the government had been asleep at the wheel throughout this crisis, and blamed Russian president Vladimir Putin for record energy prices.

"I don't recognise that," he said, pointing to an existing package of support which includes a £400 energy bill discount for all households.

But Mr Zahawi refused to say that more direct help for struggling families would be inevitable this winter.

"We're looking at all the options of what additional help we can deliver for families," he said.

On the subject of taxing the profits of energy companies, Mr Zahawi said: "There are no easy answers to this...every decision is a tough decision."

The latest data comes after dire forecasts from the Bank of England of a 15-month recession - five consecutive quarters of economic contraction.

Speaking after the Bank hiked interest rates by 50 basis points (0.5%) this month in an attempt to deal with the highest rate of inflation in more than 40 years, Governor Andrew Bailey said GDP would probably fall to 1.25% in 2023 and 0.25% in 2024.

If this forecast is borne out, it would be the first instance of two years of annual economic contraction since the 1960s.

But Ms Selfin said that KPMG was not as pessimistic as the central bank.

"We expect a slightly shorter and milder recession than the Bank of England pencilled in last week," she said.

"The main difference stems from our view that energy prices will eventually subside, contributing less to inflation, while the Bank's forecast means that prices stay elevated over the next three years."

People are facing massive rises in energy bills, with consultancy Cornwall Insight predicting that the price cap is expected to reach about £3,582 a year for the average household from October.

This is an increase from the £3,359 predicted earlier this month, and compares to the price cap last October of £1,277.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Eleven British Seafarers Receive Merchant Navy Medal
Which? Creates Fake 10 Downing Street Rental Listing to Expose Booking.com Vetting Weaknesses
BP Appoints New Chairman in Effort to Stabilise Leadership
Aberdeen Sells Hydrogen Bus Fleet at Heavy Loss After Green Transport Experiment
UK Records Hottest Summer on Record as Climate Change Intensifies Extreme Heat
Scotland Pledges to End Temporary Accommodation for Children and Build 111,000 Affordable Homes
DNO Agrees $396 Million Deal to Acquire Capricorn Energy
Uber and Wayve Launch UK’s First Supervised Autonomous Ride-Hailing Service in London
Britain Expected to Avoid New US Tariffs Targeting European Union
Middle East Conflict Pushes UK Energy Costs Higher and Revives Inflation Concerns
UK Growth Forecast Cut to 1% Through 2027 as Youth Unemployment Is Projected to Rise
Andy Burnham Links Weak UK Growth to Brexit in First Full Commons Session as Prime Minister
Keir Starmer Resigns as MP, Triggering Holborn and St Pancras By-Election
UK Business Confidence Improves but Remains Deeply Negative
Aberdeen Hydrogen Bus Sale Recovers Just Six Pence for Every Pound Invested
Which? Exposes Booking.com Verification Failures With Fake 10 Downing Street Listing
British Business Bank Invests Up to £46 Million in Deep-Tech Startup Fund
Scottish Government Puts Violence Against Women at Center of Legislative Program
FCA Eases UK IPO Rules to Strengthen London’s Listing Market
UK Likely to Avoid Next US Tariff Measures as Washington Targets EU
Macron Visits UK for Bayeux Tapestry Exhibition and Border Security Talks
British Chambers of Commerce Cuts UK Growth Outlook to 1% for 2026 and 2027
Keir Starmer Resigns as MP for Holborn and St Pancras, Triggering By-Election
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Unveils Devolution and Cost-of-Living Agenda
UK Borrowing Costs Surge as 30-Year Gilt Yield Reaches 5.88%
Cleveland Police Receive £2 Million to Tackle Serious Crime in Middlesbrough
Number of Young People in England Without a Close Friend Reaches Record Level
Five Arrested After Newborn Baby Dies From Stab Wounds in Sheffield
Nigel Farage Faces Questions Over Reported Second Parliamentary Standards Investigation
UK Retirement Funding Requirement Rises by £64,000 Compared With 2021
UK House Prices Rise for First Time Since April, Nationwide Says
FCA Chief Faces Allegations of Intimidating Consumer Group Over £9 Billion Car Loan Inquiry
Scottish Government Presses Ahead With Cap on Essential Food Prices
Burnham Government Moves to Overhaul Early Prison Release Scheme
UK Records Hottest Summer on Record in 2026, Met Office Says
UK Government Announces Major Reset of Diplomatic Policy Towards Israel
UK Pushes Back After Trump Reopens Falkland Islands Sovereignty Dispute
Keir Starmer Resigns as MP, Triggering Holborn and St Pancras By-Election
Andy Burnham Blames Brexit for UK’s Decade of Weak Growth in First Commons Address
England Faces Renewed Scrutiny Over Sewage Discharges and Water Quality
Victoria Beckham Business Reports First Operating Profit Since Launch
BT Expects £2 Billion From Copper Sales During Full-Fibre Rollout
UK Train Drivers Secure 3.6% Pay Rise and Avert Strike Action
FCA Chief Faces Scrutiny Over Alleged Pressure on Consumer Group in Car Finance Case
Kemi Badenoch Names Andrew Griffith Shadow Chancellor in Conservative Reshuffle
UK House Prices Rise for First Time Since April
UK Shop-Price Inflation Accelerates to 1.5% in August
Met Office Data Point to Hottest UK Summer on Record
UK Announces Emergency Prison Release Measures and £110 Million Capacity Expansion
UK Launches Expanded Free School Meals and 1,400 Breakfast Clubs
×