London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 29, 2026

Credit Starmer for having an energy crisis plan - but it's a questionable short-term fix

Credit Starmer for having an energy crisis plan - but it's a questionable short-term fix

But nevertheless, there are big holes in Labour's plan to tackle the crushing cost of living crisis facing the UK.

Credit Sir Keir Starmer for at least trying to come up with a costed plan to tackle the UK's burgeoning household energy bill crisis.

It's more than Boris Johnson's zombie government, or the two people vying to succeed him, have done.

That said, Labour's proposals to freeze the energy price cap at the present £1,971 at best raise more questions than answers. At worst, they are deeply flawed.

Firstly, the arithmetic. Labour has costed its plan at £29bn for six months.

The lion's share of this would come from the £14bn saved in not paying the flat £400-per-household rebate on energy bills the government is promising from October. That much is beyond dispute.

A further £8bn would come from backdating the government's 25% levy on the profits of oil and gas producers in the British North Sea, announced in May by then chancellor Rishi Sunak, to January this year and by closing what Labour describes as the "absurd loophole" in the levy - the 91p-in-the-pound tax relief that the government is making available to oil and gas producers investing in new projects in the region.

The remainder would come from £7bn that Labour says would be saved by a reduction in interest payments on government borrowing as a result of the lower inflation that would ensue from keeping household energy bills down.

The latter two assumptions, though, are questionable. When Mr Sunak announced his windfall tax on the profits of North Sea oil and gas producers, he predicted it would raise £5bn over its first year, so Labour is clearly assuming an extra £3bn can be raised by backdating the tax to January and by scrapping the tax relief offered on new investments.

That assumption is doing some heavy lifting. It is very hard to say how much more this measure will raise.

Politicians - and some in the media - like to single out the global oil and gas giants like BP and Shell and, accordingly, much was made of the comments from Bernard Looney, BP's chief executive, when he said in May that a windfall tax would not affect BP's plans to invest £18bn in the UK during the rest of the decade.

But BP and Shell are big global companies and only a very small proportion of their profits are derived from the British North Sea.

The vast majority of production in the region these days is accounted for by companies less well-known to the public, such as the FTSE-100 newcomer Harbour Energy, Israeli-owned Ithaca Energy, UK-listed Serica Energy and Equinor, the Norwegian state-owned oil and gas producer.

The first three of those in particular are far smaller than the oil supermajors and far more dependent on the British North Sea - and their investment plans for the region are, accordingly, much more sensitive to windfall taxes.

Many of these companies, including Equinor, were already questioning their planned investments following Mr Sunak's levy.

It is likely that the questioning would intensify were Labour's proposals to see the light of day.

As questionable are the assumptions being made about the interest payable on government borrowing. Yes, if inflation comes down as a result of household energy bills being capped, that would temporarily reduce an element of those debt interest payments.

But these proposals are only for six months - and so, when bills began to rise again, so would inflation and that component of the national debt linked to inflation.

As Paul Johnson, director of the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies, told the Daily Telegraph: "It's an illusion in the sense that it will reduce interest debt payments in the short term but unless you maintain these kinds of subsidies permanently, it won't reduce them later on. Inflation will be higher later on."

Perhaps the biggest problem with Labour's proposal though, is that this is only a short-term fix, seeking to alleviate pain for households in the immediate term.

There is nothing in it, by the way, for hard-pressed business consumers of energy - many of which could be forced over the edge by higher energy bills.

Moreover, there is nothing in these proposals to tackle the fundamental problems faced by the UK around energy supply and demand.

Capping household energy bills at the existing level will do nothing to bring down energy consumption or to encourage households to invest in energy-saving measures such as insulation, solar panels or heat pumps. Nor will it do anything to tackle the supply side of the equation.

Britain does not buy much gas from Russia, but it is now competing for gas supplies with those countries that do, which is the main reason why wholesale energy prices are rising.

The biggest way of guaranteeing lower wholesale prices in the longer term is to either reduce energy demand or promote an increase in energy supplies.

These proposals do neither.

To that extent, they are reminiscent of George Osborne's Help to Buy scheme, which propped up housing demand - if not to say boosted it - while doing nothing to increase housing supply.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Automotive Manufacturers Urge Government Action as High Energy Costs and Global Supply Chain Disruptions Threaten Production
Metropolitan Police Issue Formal Apology Following Inadvertent Release of Confidential Information During High-Profile Investigation
Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison Unveils Devolved Budget Highlighting Housing and Public Service Adjustments
Energy Regulator Office of Gas and Electricity Markets Prepares to Remove Household Gas Standing Charges Following Treasury Mandate
Treasury Confirms Reversal of Planned Cash Individual Savings Account Allowance Reduction Protecting Twenty Thousand Pound Limit
Office for Budget Responsibility Revisions Predict Moderate United Kingdom Economic Growth with Elevated Inflation Pressures
Chancellor John Healey Delivers First Autumn Budget in Parliament Highlighting Temporary Bank Surcharge and Cost-of-Living Support
Met Office Issues Extended Forecast Highlighting Stable High Pressure Weather Patterns Across the United Kingdom
Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison Outlines Changes to Tax Thresholds and Residential Property Levies in Edinburgh
Financial Markets and Government Bond Yields Remain Stable Following Muted Reaction to Autumn Budget Measures
Defence Committee Chair Tan Dhesi Criticizes Budget for Delaying Critical Defence Spending Decisions to Next Year
International Monetary Fund Forecasts United Kingdom Economic Growth at One Point Three Percent for Year
Office for Budget Responsibility Assesses Fiscal Headroom Reduced to Fifteen Billion Pounds Following Global Energy Shocks
Chancellor John Healey Delivers First Autumn Budget Introducing Household Energy Support and Bank Tax Hikes
Aberdeen City Council Co-Leader Faces Binding Vote Challenge as Local Councillors Launch High Court Legal Battle
Housebuilding Across Scotland Falls to Eleven-Year Low Despite Government Declarations of a Housing Emergency
Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown Organizes National Innovation Summit in Manchester to Boost Regional Competitiveness
UK Government Faces Mounting Criticism Over Lack of Environmental Consultation During Artificial Intelligence Datacentre Expansion Talks
Greggs Announces Closure of Four Major Manufacturing Facilities Across Britain Resulting in Seven Hundred Forty Job Losses
British Retail Consortium Warns That Cumulative Employment and Regulatory Costs Threaten High Street Price Stability
Lloyds Banking Group Chief Executive Charlie Nunn Warns That Increased Bank Taxes Could Deter Long-Term Economic Investment
Ipsos Polling Reveals Seven in Ten Britons Expect Personal Tax Increases Amid Deep Public Economic Pessimism
Chancellor John Healey Delivers First Autumn Budget in Parliament Amid Tight Fiscal Constraints and Slower Growth Forecasts
United Kingdom Finance Monthly Review Highlights Rising Long-Term Borrowing Costs and Persistent Energy Price Pressures Across British Markets
Royal Marines Pioneer Rapid Autonomous Drone Operations During Major High North Exercise Involving NATO Allies
House of Commons Justice Committee Urges Chancellor to Align Prison and Courts Reform Ambitions With Concrete Budgetary Resources
Government Investigates Rapid Artificial Intelligence Datacentre Expansion Strategy Following Scrutiny Over Power Grid Demands and Planning Backlogs
His Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary Warns Third-Party Supplier Breaches Threaten United Kingdom Police and Fire Service Data
Number of British Businesses in Financial Distress Reaches Highest Level in Two Decades Ahead of Fiscal Announcement
Chancellor John Healey Prepares Autumn Budget Amid Intense Market Scrutiny Over Fiscal Headroom and Spending Pressures
Education or Indoctrination? The Growing Debate Over Religious Participation in British Schools
Germany's Vanishing Shopfronts: The Silent Collapse of the Businesses That Built Its Cities
Northern Ireland Executive Reaches Agreement on Public Transport Modernization and Cross-Border Rail Infrastructure Funding
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Approves New North Sea Carbon Capture and Storage Industrial Clusters
Office for National Statistics Reports Stabilization in Private Rental Growth Across Major English and Welsh Regional Cities
United Kingdom Automotive Manufacturing Output Rises Moderately as Electric Vehicle Assembly Lines Expand in the Midlands
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Formal Inquiry Into Cloud Computing Infrastructure and Artificial Intelligence Partnerships
Scottish Government Finalizes Emergency Budget Adjustments Following Multi-Year Public Sector Funding Shortfalls
National Health Service England Announces Major Emergency Care Overhaul to Alleviate Severe Winter Capacity Pressures
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Prepares Autumn Budget Amid Intensifying Scrutiny Over Public Spending and Fiscal Rules
Bank of England Signals Cautious Approach to Further Interest Rate Cuts as Persistent Wage Growth and Inflation Pressures Remain
Transport for London Unveils Expanded Zero-Emission Bus Fleet to Meet Capital Air Quality Targets
Higher Education Institutions Face Deepening Financial Strain Amid Declining International Student Enrolment
Automotive Industry Leaders Criticize Government Tax Policies and Urge Action on Retail Consumer Confidence
Environment Agency Issues Flood Alerts Across Scottish and English Waterways Following Heavy Rainfall
Independent Audit Highlights Persistent Security Vulnerabilities Across Legacy Government Digital Portals
Northern Ireland Political Leaders Clash Over Westminster Funding Allocations Ahead of Autumn Budget
Ethnic Minorities in England Face Significant Disparities in Routine Breast Cancer Diagnosis Rates
National Police Chiefs Report Alarming Surge in Domestic Abuse Cases Fuelled by Expanding Illegal Cocaine Market
Government Announces Two Hundred and Twenty Million Pound Pothole Funding Boost for Local Highway Authorities
×