London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Oct 06, 2025

Covid: Will Scotland hit its January booster jabs target?

Covid: Will Scotland hit its January booster jabs target?

Accelerating the booster vaccination programme has become the UK's main line of defence against the Omicron variant.

There are fears the strain could be more infectious, cause more serious illness and be better at evading vaccines than previous variants.

Every adult in Scotland will now be offered a booster, following the latest guidance from the JCVI - the UK government's vaccine advisors.

More than 1.7 million boosters have been delivered so far and the Scottish government says all eligible over-18s will be offered one by the end of January.


How easy will it be to meet the January target? At first glance, it's an easy question to answer.

As of 30 November, about 3.92 million adults in Scotland have had a second dose of a Covid vaccine and will need a booster shot.

Take away the number of boosters already delivered to over-18s (close to 1.7 million) and you're left with about 2.2 million people who will need the jab.

Given current vaccination rates, Scotland would need about 70 days to complete the booster programme, taking us into the second week of February.

However, that number of eligible adults is growing every day as more people receive second doses.

To add a bit more complexity, not everyone in that group is eligible right now. Even if it were possible to line up 2.2 million people and jab them in a single day, you wouldn't want to do it.

There needs to be a period of time between the second and third doses - there's no point in boosting immunity if it hasn't already started to wane.

That period was six months, but has now been reduced to three months following new guidance from the JCVI, the UK government's vaccine advisors.

So how do we figure this out?

The first part of the equation is to estimate how many boosters a day are likely to be delivered over the coming months.

Delivering booster shots became the focus of Scotland's vaccination programme in September and the number of first and second doses being given each day has reduced significantly since the summer.


We can see from Public Health Scotland figures that over the past two weeks an average of 32,158 boosters have been given to over-18s each day.

Clearly this figure could change over time.

It could go up if the Scottish government directs more resources towards vaccination - or it might go down during the Christmas holiday period.

However, it does give us a reasonable figure to project vaccination rates over the next few months.

The next part of the equation - working out how many over-18s will be eligible for a booster over the coming months - is easier.

That three-month delay between doses means we know exactly how many over-18s will become eligible between now and the end of February.

By plotting the number of eligible people against the estimated number of vaccinations we can see where the lines cross, which is the point where the booster gap will be closed.

Given current vaccination levels, this will be around 5 February.


If we wanted to get those two lines to cross by the end of January, we'd need to be delivering about 34,000 jabs a day - 5.7% higher than current levels.

There's also a continuing demand for first and second doses to keep up with, especially in the youngest age groups.

The Scottish government says it's "aiming to offer the booster vaccine to everyone aged 18 or older who is eligible by the end of January". Boris Johnson has set the same target for England.

A Scottish government spokesperson also told the BBC that its approach to vaccine deployment would be confirmed "very soon".

Offering the vaccine is, of course, different to actually getting a jab into an arm. It's also worth noting that the job won't be complete at the end of January.

More people will continue to become eligible for a booster, but the number will start to dwindle as second dose coverage moves closer to 100%, and by then it should be easier to keep up with demand.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Three Scientists Awarded Nobel Prize in Medicine for Discovery of Immune Self-Tolerance Mechanism
OpenAI and AMD Forge Landmark AI-Chip Alliance with Equity Option
Munich Airport Reopens After Second Drone Shutdown
France Names New Government Amid Political Crisis
Trump Stands Firm in Shutdown Showdown and Declares War on Drug Cartels — Turning Crisis into Opportunity
Surge of U.S. Billionaires Transforms London’s Peninsula Apartments into Ultra-Luxury Stronghold
Pro Europe and Anti-War Babiš Poised to Return to Power After Czech Parliamentary Vote
Jeff Bezos Calls AI Surge a ‘Good’ Bubble, Urges Focus on Lasting Innovation
Japan’s Ruling Party Chooses Sanae Takaichi, Clearing Path to First Female Prime Minister
Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Sentenced to Fifty Months in Prison Following Prostitution Conviction
Taylor Swift’s ‘Showgirl’ Launch Extends Billion-Dollar Empire
Trump Administration Launches “TrumpRx” Plan to Enable Direct Drug Sales at Deep Discounts
Trump Announces Intention to Impose 100 Percent Tariff on Foreign-Made Films
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Singapore and Hong Kong Vie to Dominate Asia’s Rising Gold Trade
Trump Organization Teams with Saudi Developer on $1 Billion Trump Plaza in Jeddah
Manhattan Sees Surge in Office-to-Housing Conversions, Highest Since 2008
Switzerland and U.S. Issue Joint Assurance Against Currency Manipulation
Electronic Arts to Be Taken Private in Historic $55 Billion Buyout
Thomas Jacob Sanford Named as Suspect in Deadly Michigan Church Shooting and Arson
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
New York Man Arrested After On-Air Confession to 2017 Parents’ Murders
U.S. Defense Chief Orders Sudden Summit of Hundreds of Generals and Admirals
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
Trump Claims FBI Planted 274 Agents at Capitol Riot, Citing Unverified Reports
India: Internet Suspended in Bareilly Amid Communal Clashes Between Muslims and Hindus
Supreme Court Extends Freeze on Nearly $5 Billion in U.S. Foreign Aid at Trump’s Request
Archaeologists Recover Statues and Temples from 2,000-Year-Old Sunken City off Alexandria
China Deploys 2,000 Workers to Spain to Build Major EV Battery Factory, Raising European Dependence
Speed Takes Over: How Drive-Through Coffee Chains Are Rewriting U.S. Coffee Culture
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Ringo Starr Champions Enduring Beatles Legacy While Debuting Las Vegas Art Show
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Colombian President Petro Vows to Mobilize Volunteers for Gaza and Joins List of Fighters
FBI Removes Agents Who Kneeled at 2020 Protest, Citing Breach of Professional Conduct
Trump Alleges ‘Triple Sabotage’ at United Nations After Escalator and Teleprompter Failures
Shock in France: 5 Years in Prison for Former President Nicolas Sarkozy
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
BNP Paribas Abandons Ban on 'Controversial Weapons' Financing Amid Europe’s Defence Push
Typhoon Ragasa Leaves Trail of Destruction Across East Asia Before Making Landfall in China
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Big Banks Rebuild in Hong Kong as Deal Volume Surges
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Arnault Denounces Proposed Wealth Tax as Threat to French Economy
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Denmark Investigates Drone Incursion, Does Not Rule Out Russian Involvement
Lilly CEO Warns UK Is ‘Worst Country in Europe’ for Drug Prices, Pulls Back Investment
Nigel Farage Emerges as Central Force in British Politics with Reform UK Surge
×