London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jun 25, 2026

Covid: Will Scotland hit its January booster jabs target?

Covid: Will Scotland hit its January booster jabs target?

Accelerating the booster vaccination programme has become the UK's main line of defence against the Omicron variant.

There are fears the strain could be more infectious, cause more serious illness and be better at evading vaccines than previous variants.

Every adult in Scotland will now be offered a booster, following the latest guidance from the JCVI - the UK government's vaccine advisors.

More than 1.7 million boosters have been delivered so far and the Scottish government says all eligible over-18s will be offered one by the end of January.


How easy will it be to meet the January target? At first glance, it's an easy question to answer.

As of 30 November, about 3.92 million adults in Scotland have had a second dose of a Covid vaccine and will need a booster shot.

Take away the number of boosters already delivered to over-18s (close to 1.7 million) and you're left with about 2.2 million people who will need the jab.

Given current vaccination rates, Scotland would need about 70 days to complete the booster programme, taking us into the second week of February.

However, that number of eligible adults is growing every day as more people receive second doses.

To add a bit more complexity, not everyone in that group is eligible right now. Even if it were possible to line up 2.2 million people and jab them in a single day, you wouldn't want to do it.

There needs to be a period of time between the second and third doses - there's no point in boosting immunity if it hasn't already started to wane.

That period was six months, but has now been reduced to three months following new guidance from the JCVI, the UK government's vaccine advisors.

So how do we figure this out?

The first part of the equation is to estimate how many boosters a day are likely to be delivered over the coming months.

Delivering booster shots became the focus of Scotland's vaccination programme in September and the number of first and second doses being given each day has reduced significantly since the summer.


We can see from Public Health Scotland figures that over the past two weeks an average of 32,158 boosters have been given to over-18s each day.

Clearly this figure could change over time.

It could go up if the Scottish government directs more resources towards vaccination - or it might go down during the Christmas holiday period.

However, it does give us a reasonable figure to project vaccination rates over the next few months.

The next part of the equation - working out how many over-18s will be eligible for a booster over the coming months - is easier.

That three-month delay between doses means we know exactly how many over-18s will become eligible between now and the end of February.

By plotting the number of eligible people against the estimated number of vaccinations we can see where the lines cross, which is the point where the booster gap will be closed.

Given current vaccination levels, this will be around 5 February.


If we wanted to get those two lines to cross by the end of January, we'd need to be delivering about 34,000 jabs a day - 5.7% higher than current levels.

There's also a continuing demand for first and second doses to keep up with, especially in the youngest age groups.

The Scottish government says it's "aiming to offer the booster vaccine to everyone aged 18 or older who is eligible by the end of January". Boris Johnson has set the same target for England.

A Scottish government spokesperson also told the BBC that its approach to vaccine deployment would be confirmed "very soon".

Offering the vaccine is, of course, different to actually getting a jab into an arm. It's also worth noting that the job won't be complete at the end of January.

More people will continue to become eligible for a booster, but the number will start to dwindle as second dose coverage moves closer to 100%, and by then it should be easier to keep up with demand.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Energy Price Volatility Reinforces Pressure for Faster Electrification of Economy
UK Defence and Aerospace Strategy Gains Momentum as Keir Starmer Pushes Industrial Cooperation in Berlin
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Unveils £53 Million Investment in Farming Innovation
Foreign Secretary Announces Medical Evacuations and University Support for Palestinians in Gaza
Government-Commissioned Report Highlights Economic Exposure to Climate-Driven Fossil Fuel Price Shocks
Climate Change Committee Warns UK Is Off Track on Emissions Cuts and Calls for Faster Decarbonisation
Prime Minister Keir Starmer Calls for Deeper UK-EU Defence and Industrial Cooperation in Berlin Address
Met Office Issues Red Extreme Heat Warning as Temperatures Set to Surpass 37°C in England and Wales
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 3.75% as Inflation Outlook Remains Uncertain
UK Announces New Military Infrastructure at Catterick to Support Engineer Regiment Relocation
University of Reading Ranked Among Top 100 Globally for Sustainability Impact
UK Launches Counter-Fraud Taskforce to Investigate Covid Loan Scams
UK Government Introduces Customs and Tax Reforms to Support High Street Retailers
Jonathan Haskel Nominated as Chair of the UK Office for Budget Responsibility
UK Government Expands Powers to Recover Benefit Debt and Tackle Welfare Fraud
Labour Party Leadership Contest Intensifies as Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband Clash Over Economic Direction
Rail Operators Urge Essential Travel Only as Extreme Heat Threatens UK Network Stability
United Kingdom Issues Red Extreme Heat Warning as Temperatures Forecast to Reach 38°C
Keir Starmer Announces Resignation as UK Prime Minister Amid Deepening Political Instability
UK Biotechnology Sector Receives Increased Public Funding to Support Regional Growth
Police Chiefs Update National Protest Management Guidelines Amid Rising Demonstration Activity
UK Aviation Regulator Expands Support for Regional Airports to Strengthen Domestic Routes
CMA Launches Investigation Into Retail Pricing Across UK Grocery Sector
UK Energy Operator Warns of Winter Supply Pressures Despite Stable Overall Grid Outlook
UK Research Council Expands Funding for Regional Biotechnology and Life Sciences Clusters
UK Compensation Scheme for Post Office Horizon Scandal Reaches 80 Percent Completion
Police Chiefs Issue Updated National Guidance on Managing Large Public Demonstrations
UK Expands Regional Airport Funding Scheme to Boost Domestic Connectivity
UK Competition Watchdog Launches Inquiry Into Grocery Pricing Practices
National Grid Warns of Tight Energy Management Needs During Upcoming Winter Peak Demand
UK Education Department Introduces National Standards for AI Use in Secondary Schools
UK High Court Clears North Sea Carbon Capture Project After Final Legal Challenge Fails
Northern Ireland Leaders Hold Emergency Talks on Trade Disruption Under Windsor Framework
Welsh Government Moves to Expand Social Housing in Response to Severe Affordability Pressures
UK Economy Sees Unexpected Rise in Business Investment in Second Quarter, ONS Data Shows
Scottish Government Unveils Multi-Billion Pound Investment Plan for Renewable Energy and Grid Expansion
UK and EU Agree Enhanced Defence Cooperation Pact Covering Intelligence and North Sea Security
Prime Minister Orders Independent Review of NHS Performance After Record Waiting Lists
Bank of England Holds Interest Rates at 5 Percent as Services Inflation Remains Persistent
UK Heatwave Disrupts Transport, Healthcare and Public Services as Red Weather Alerts Expand Nationwide
Barclays Warns of Growing Cyber Risk Divide Between Large UK Firms and Micro Businesses
European Defence Plans Including Ukraine Integration Prompt UK Strategic Reassessment
UK Equity Markets React as US–Iran Peace Roadmap Eases Oil Price Pressures
United Kingdom Expands Global Clean Energy Partnerships With Brazil, Morocco and Tanzania
Lord David Frost Urges Incoming UK Leadership to Abandon EU Regulatory Reset Strategy
Housing Groups Support Amendment to Strengthen Fire and Gas Safety Access Powers in Social Housing
South London NHS Estates Staff Ballot on Industrial Action Over Pay Structures in Hospital Maintenance Services
United Kingdom Government Invests £60 Million in AI Research Labs at Oxford and University College London
Barclays Cyber Security Report Highlights Rising Threat Exposure Among UK Small Businesses in AI-Driven Attacks
UK Met Office Heatwave Triggers Transport Warnings as Rail Operators Urge Cancellations Amid Infrastructure Strain
×