London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Dec 29, 2025

Covid: Will Scotland hit its January booster jabs target?

Covid: Will Scotland hit its January booster jabs target?

Accelerating the booster vaccination programme has become the UK's main line of defence against the Omicron variant.

There are fears the strain could be more infectious, cause more serious illness and be better at evading vaccines than previous variants.

Every adult in Scotland will now be offered a booster, following the latest guidance from the JCVI - the UK government's vaccine advisors.

More than 1.7 million boosters have been delivered so far and the Scottish government says all eligible over-18s will be offered one by the end of January.


How easy will it be to meet the January target? At first glance, it's an easy question to answer.

As of 30 November, about 3.92 million adults in Scotland have had a second dose of a Covid vaccine and will need a booster shot.

Take away the number of boosters already delivered to over-18s (close to 1.7 million) and you're left with about 2.2 million people who will need the jab.

Given current vaccination rates, Scotland would need about 70 days to complete the booster programme, taking us into the second week of February.

However, that number of eligible adults is growing every day as more people receive second doses.

To add a bit more complexity, not everyone in that group is eligible right now. Even if it were possible to line up 2.2 million people and jab them in a single day, you wouldn't want to do it.

There needs to be a period of time between the second and third doses - there's no point in boosting immunity if it hasn't already started to wane.

That period was six months, but has now been reduced to three months following new guidance from the JCVI, the UK government's vaccine advisors.

So how do we figure this out?

The first part of the equation is to estimate how many boosters a day are likely to be delivered over the coming months.

Delivering booster shots became the focus of Scotland's vaccination programme in September and the number of first and second doses being given each day has reduced significantly since the summer.


We can see from Public Health Scotland figures that over the past two weeks an average of 32,158 boosters have been given to over-18s each day.

Clearly this figure could change over time.

It could go up if the Scottish government directs more resources towards vaccination - or it might go down during the Christmas holiday period.

However, it does give us a reasonable figure to project vaccination rates over the next few months.

The next part of the equation - working out how many over-18s will be eligible for a booster over the coming months - is easier.

That three-month delay between doses means we know exactly how many over-18s will become eligible between now and the end of February.

By plotting the number of eligible people against the estimated number of vaccinations we can see where the lines cross, which is the point where the booster gap will be closed.

Given current vaccination levels, this will be around 5 February.


If we wanted to get those two lines to cross by the end of January, we'd need to be delivering about 34,000 jabs a day - 5.7% higher than current levels.

There's also a continuing demand for first and second doses to keep up with, especially in the youngest age groups.

The Scottish government says it's "aiming to offer the booster vaccine to everyone aged 18 or older who is eligible by the end of January". Boris Johnson has set the same target for England.

A Scottish government spokesperson also told the BBC that its approach to vaccine deployment would be confirmed "very soon".

Offering the vaccine is, of course, different to actually getting a jab into an arm. It's also worth noting that the job won't be complete at the end of January.

More people will continue to become eligible for a booster, but the number will start to dwindle as second dose coverage moves closer to 100%, and by then it should be easier to keep up with demand.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Plans Royal Diplomacy with King Charles and Prince William to Reinvigorate Trade Talks with US
King Charles and Prince William Poised for Separate 2026 US Visits to Reinforce UK-US Trade and Diplomatic Ties
Apple Moves to Appeal UK Ruling Ordering £1.5 Billion in Customer Overcharge Damages
King Charles’s 2025 Christmas Message Tops UK Television Ratings on Christmas Day
The Battle Over the Internet Explodes: The United States Bars European Officials and Ignites a Diplomatic Crisis
Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie Join Royal Family at Sandringham Christmas Service
Fine Wine Investors Find Little Cheer in Third Year of Falls
UK Mortgage Rates Edge Lower as Bank of England Base Rate Cut Filters Through Lending Market
U.S. Supermarket Gives Customers Free Groceries for Christmas After Computer Glitch
Air India ‘Finds’ a Plane That Vanished 13 Years Ago
Caviar and Foie Gras? China Is Becoming a Luxury Food Powerhouse
Hong Kong Climbs to Second Globally in 2025 Tourism Rankings Behind Bangkok
From Sunniest Year on Record to Terror Plots and Sports Triumphs: The UK’s Defining Stories of 2025
Greta Thunberg Released on Bail After Arrest at London Pro-Palestinian Demonstration
Banksy Unveils New Winter Mural in London Amid Festive Season Excitement
UK Households Face Rising Financial Strain as Tax Increases Bite and Growth Loses Momentum
UK Government Approves Universal Studios Theme Park in Bedford Poised to Rival Disneyland Paris
UK Gambling Shares Slide as Traders Respond to Steep Tax Rises and Sector Uncertainty
Starmer and Trump Coordinate on Ukraine Peace Efforts in Latest Diplomatic Call
The Pilot Barricaded Himself in the Cockpit and Refused to Take Off: "We Are Not Leaving Until I Receive My Salary"
UK Fashion Label LK Bennett Pursues Accelerated Sale Amid Financial Struggles
U.S. Government Warns UK Over Free Speech in Pro-Life Campaigner Prosecution
Newly Released Files Shed Light on Jeffrey Epstein’s Extensive Links to the United Kingdom
Prince William and Prince George Volunteer Together at UK Homelessness Charity
UK Police Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’ as Authorities Recalibrate Free Speech Enforcement
Scambodia: The World Owes Thailand’s Military a Profound Debt of Gratitude
Women in Partial Nudity — and Bill Clinton in a Dress and Heels: The Images Revealed in the “Epstein Files”
US Envoy Witkoff to Convene Security Advisers from Ukraine, UK, France and Germany in Miami as Peace Efforts Intensify
UK Retailers Report Sharp Pre-Christmas Sales Decline and Weak Outlook, CBI Survey Shows
UK Government Rejects Use of Frozen Russian Assets to Fund Aid for Ukraine
UK Financial Conduct Authority Opens Formal Investigation into WH Smith After Accounting Errors
UK Issues Final Ultimatum to Roman Abramovich Over £2.5bn Chelsea Sale Funds for Ukraine
Rare Pink Fog Sweeps Across Parts of the UK as Met Office Warns of Poor Visibility
UK Police Pledge ‘More Assertive’ Enforcement to Tackle Antisemitism at Protests
UK Police Warn They Will Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’
Trump Files $10 Billion Defamation Lawsuit Against BBC as Broadcaster Pledges Legal Defence
UK Says U.S. Tech Deal Talks Still Active Despite Washington’s Suspension of Prosperity Pact
UK Mortgage Rules to Give Greater Flexibility to Borrowers With Irregular Incomes
UK Treasury Moves to Position Britain as Leading Global Hub for Crypto Firms
U.S. Freezes £31 Billion Tech Prosperity Deal With Britain Amid Trade Dispute
Prince Harry and Meghan’s Potential UK Return Gains New Momentum Amid Security Review and Royal Dialogue
Zelensky Opens High-Stakes Peace Talks in Berlin with Trump Envoy and European Leaders
Historical Reflections on Press Freedom Emerge Amid Debate Over Trump’s Media Policies
UK Boosts Protection for Jewish Communities After Sydney Hanukkah Attack
UK Government Declines to Comment After ICC Prosecutor Alleges Britain Threatened to Defund Court Over Israel Arrest Warrant
Apple Shutters All Retail Stores in the United Kingdom Under New National COVID-19 Lockdown
US–UK Technology Partnership Strains as Key Trade Disagreements Emerge
UK Police Confirm No Further Action Over Allegation That Andrew Asked Bodyguard to Investigate Virginia Giuffre
Giuffre Family Expresses Deep Disappointment as UK Police Decline New Inquiry Into Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor Claims
Transatlantic Trade Ambitions Hit a Snag as UK–US Deal Faces Emerging Challenges
×