London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Aug 08, 2025

Could Sadiq be first mayor elected after just one round of voting?

Could Sadiq be first mayor elected after just one round of voting?

Sadiq Khan is heading for a landslide and could become the first mayoral candidate to win outright after counting just one round of votes, an Evening Standard poll reveals today.

Sadiq Khan is heading for a landslide and could become the first mayoral candidate to win outright after counting just one round of votes, an Evening Standard poll reveals today.

Mr Khan leads his main rival, Tory candidate Shaun Bailey, by 53 per cent to 28 per cent on first preferences, the Opinium survey of 1,100 Londoners reveals.

If the Labour mayor’s support holds firm in the 45 days to polling day on May 6, this would make him the first-ever London mayoral candidate to secure victory without needing to rely on second-preference votes. A candidate is elected after securing 50 per cent of the ballot.

The results, from fieldwork by the pollsters between last Wednesday and Saturday, are the latest to confirm Mr Khan is set for a second term as mayor.

A Redfield and Wilton poll earlier this month put him on 51 per cent and Mr Bailey on 25 per cent.

Sadiq Khan: out in front and heading back to City Hall, say pollsters

The Opinium poll indicates that if the contest did progress to a second round run-off, in which second preference votes were added to first preference votes, Mr Khan would win with 66 per cent against 34 per cent for Mr Bailey.

Lib-Dem Luisa Porritt and Green candidate Sian Berry each received seven per cent support, ahead of UKIP’s Peter Gammons on two per cent and Women’s Equality Party candidate Mandu Reid on one per cent.

Two per cent of respondents selected “another candidate”. Other contenders include the anti-lockdown, anti-woke campaigner and actor Laurence Fox.

Adam Drummond, head of political polling at Opinium, said: “Sadiq Khan is probably going to be re-elected as mayor as his main rival, Conservative Shaun Bailey, is poorly known and doesn’t seem to have the qualities that previously successful Conservatives in London have needed to win in an increasingly Labour-leaning city.

“In all of the issues we tested, Mr Khan’s approach is preferred to Mr Bailey’s but, despite the partisan lean of London as a whole, Boris Johnson’s approval rating is higher than the percentage intending to vote for his candidate.

“While a Conservative winning in London (especially since Brexit) was always going to be an uphill climb, the more positive national political environment for the Conservatives may have given them a better chance than expected had they had a more appealing candidate. As it is, Shaun Bailey appears to have taken a bad hand and played it badly.”

Today’s poll found 47 per cent of respondents approved of Mr Khan’s performance as mayor, with 31 per cent disapproving – with similar approval ratings in inner and outer London.

Shaun Bailey: “playing a bad hand badly” by failing to win over all Tory voters

It found that 24 per cent of respondents said they were “not sure” who they planned to vote for. Mr Khan’s 53-28 lead over Mr Bailey is based on responses from respondents who say they are certain to vote and who select a candidate.

Mr Khan was even able to take Tory voters from Mr Bailey, with 18 per cent of those who voted Conservative in the 2019 general election saying they would back the current mayor. A total of 77 per cent of Tory general election voters said they would support Mr Bailey.

The votes for London mayor are counted electronically, meaning both first and second preference ballots are processed at the same time. But an outright victory on first preferences would avoid the need to redistribute the second preference votes cast for eliminated candidates.

If Mr Bailey achieves 28 per cent of first preference votes on May 6, it would be on a par with the 27 per cent achieved by Tory candidate Steve Norris in the first London mayoral race in 2000, when Ken Livingstone got 39 per cent, and the 29 per cent Mr Norris polled in 2004.

Mr Johnson’s two victories, in 2008 and 2012, saw him secure 43 per cent and then 44 per cent of first preferences respectively, going on to defeat Mr Livingstone on both occasions.

In the 2016 poll, Mr Khan won 44 per cent of first preferences to 35 per cent for Tory candidate Zac Goldsmith. Mr Khan went on to defeat Mr Goldsmith by a record 315,529 votes.

However Mr Livingstone’s first preference performance in 2000 - when he was standing as an independent - remains the biggest gap between first and second-placed candidates after the first round.

If Mr Khan does go on to secure victory based solely on first preferences, this would appear to be a consequence of the third and fourth-placed parties polling badly. Simon Hughes polled 15.2 per cent of first-preference votes for the Lib-Dems in 2004.

The mayoral race formally began today with the opening of nominations. Candidates wishing to stand have a week to submit their papers. About six million Londoners will be able to vote for the Mayor and the 25 members of the London Assembly.

People can vote if they are aged 18 or over on May 6, a British, qualifying Commonwealth or EU citizen and living in London. People not yet registered to vote can do so by April 19 at: gov.uk/register-to-vote

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
British Labour Government Utilizes Counter-Terrorism Tools for Social Media Monitoring Against Legitimate Critics
OpenAI Launches GPT‑5, Its Most Advanced AI Model Yet
Embarrassment in Britain: Homelessness Minister Evicted Tenants and Forced to Resign
President Trump nominated Stephen Miran, his top economic adviser and a critic of the Federal Reserve, to temporarily fill an open Fed seat
The AI-Powered Education Revolution: Market Potential and Transformative Impact
Chikungunya Virus Outbreak in Southern China: Over 7,000 Hospitalized
French wine makers have seen catastrophic damage to vines that were almost ready to be harvested after the worst fires in more than 70 years burned through the south of the country
US Lawmaker Probes Intel CEO’s China Ties Amid National Security Concerns
Brazilian President Lula says he’ll contact the leaders of BRICS states to propose a unified response to U.S. tariffs
Trump Open to Meeting Putin as Soon as Next Week, with Possible Trilateral Summit Including Zelenskiy
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau spark dating rumors, joining high stakes world of celeb-politician romances
US envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow to seek a breakthrough in the Ukraine war ahead of President Trump’s peace deadline
WhatsApp Deletes 6.8 Million Scam Accounts Amid Rising Global Fraud
Nine people have been hospitalized and dozens of salmonella cases have been reported after an outbreak of infections linked to certain brands of pistachios and pistachio-containing products, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada
Karol Nawrocki Inaugurated as Poland’s President, Setting Stage for Clash with Tusk Government
Trump Signals JD Vance as ‘Most Likely’ MAGA Successor for 2028
US Charges Two Chinese Nationals for Illegal Nvidia AI Chip Exports
Texas Residents Face Water Restrictions While AI Data Centers Consume Millions of Gallons
U.S. Tariff Policy Triggers Market Volatility Amid Growing Global Trade Tensions
Tariffs, AI, and the Shifting U.S. Macro Landscape: Navigating a New Economic Regime
Representative Greene Urges H-1B Visa Cuts Amid U.S.-India Trade Tensions
U.S. House Committee Subpoenas Clintons and Senior Officials in Epstein Investigation
Sydney Sweeney Registered as Republican as Controversial American Eagle Ad Sparks Debate
Trump Accuses Major Banks of Politically Motivated Account Denials and Prepares Executive Order
TikTok Removes Huda Kattan Video Over Anti-Israel Conspiracy Claims
Trump Threatens Tariffs on India Over Russian Oil Imports
German Finance Minister Criticizes Trump’s Attacks on Institutions
U.S. Proposes Visa Bond of Up to $15,000 for Some Applicants
U.S. Farmers Increase Lobbying Amid Immigration Crackdown
Elon Musk Receives $23.7 Billion Tesla Stock Award
Texas House Paralyzed After Democrats Walk Out Over Redistricting
Mexican Cartels Complicate Sheinbaum’s U.S. Security Talks
Mark Zuckerberg Declares War on the iPhone
India Rejects U.S. Tariff Threat, Defends Russian Oil Purchases
United States Establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile
Thousands of Private ChatGPT Conversations Accidentally Indexed by Google
China Tightens Mineral Controls, Curtailing Critical Inputs for Western Defence Contractors
OpenAI’s Bold Bet: Teaching AI to Think, Not Just Chat
Tesla Seeks Shareholder Approval for $29 Billion Compensation Package for Elon Musk
Nvidia is cutting prices on its RTX 50-series graphics cards after sales slowed and inventories piled up
Ghislaine Maxwell Transferred to Minimum-Security Prison Amid Ongoing DOJ Discussions
U.S. Tariffs Surge to Highest Levels in Nearly a Century Under Second Trump Term
Matt Taibbi Slams Media for Role in Russiagate Narrative
Pilots Call for Mental Health Support Without Stigma
All Five Trapped Miners Found Dead After El Teniente Mine Collapse
Ong Beng Seng Pleads Guilty in Corruption Case Linked to Former Singapore Transport Minister
BP’s Largest Oil and Gas Find in 25 Years Uncovered Offshore Brazil
Italy Fines Shein One Million Euros for Misleading Sustainability Claims
JPMorgan and Coinbase Unveil Partnership to Let Chase Cardholders Buy Crypto Directly
Declassified Annex Links Soros‑Affiliated Officials and Clinton Campaign to ‘Russiagate’ Narrative
×