London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Nov 02, 2026

Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past

Climate change: Snowy UK winters could become thing of the past

Snowy winters could become a thing of the past as climate change affects the UK, Met Office analysis suggests.

It is one of a series of projections about how UK's climate could change, shared with BBC Panorama.

It suggests by the 2040s most of southern England could no longer see sub-zero days. By the 2060s only high ground and northern Scotland are still likely to experience such cold days.

The projections are based on global emissions accelerating.

It could mean the end of sledging, snowmen and snowball fights, says Dr Lizzie Kendon, a senior Met Office scientist who worked on the climate projections.

"We're saying by the end of the century much of the lying snow will have disappeared entirely except over the highest ground," she told Panorama.

If the world reduces emissions significantly the changes will be less dramatic, the Met Office says.

The average coldest day in the UK over the past three decades was -4.3 Celsius.

If emissions continue to accelerate, leading to a global temperature rise of 4C, then the average coldest day in the UK would remain above 0 Celsius across most of the country throughout winter.

Even if global emissions are reduced dramatically and world temperatures rise by 2C, the average coldest day in the UK is likely be 0 Celsius.



The Met Office says these temperatures are subject to variation and some years may see days colder than the average. Its projections explore how the UK's climate might change.

"The overarching picture is warmer, wetter winters; hotter, drier summers," Dr Kendon says.

"But within that, we get this shift towards more extreme events, so more frequent and intense extremes, so heavier rainfall when it occurs."

The Met Office says we are already seeing dramatic changes in the UK climate.


Picture postcard: Snow covered houses in Gold Hill in Shaftesbury, Dorset in 2019


"The rate and nature of the climate change that we're seeing is unprecedented," says Dr Mark McCarthy of the Met Office's National Climate Information Centre.

Most of the country has already seen average temperatures rise by 1C since the Industrial Revolution and we should expect more of the same, he warns.

That may not sound like much, but even these small changes in our climate can have a huge impact on the weather and on many plants and animals.

Hotter drier summers


The Met Office says there could be significant temperature rises in the decades ahead for both winter and summer.

It says the biggest increases will be in the already warmer southern parts of the UK. At the same time extreme weather is expected to become more frequent and more intense.

Heatwaves are likely to become more common and last longer, with record temperatures being exceeded regularly.


The average hottest day could reach a sweltering 40C the data suggests


Not every summer will be hotter than the last, the Met Office says, but the long-term trend is steadily upwards, particularly if emissions remain unabated.

That high-emissions scenario shows peak summer temperatures could rise by between 3.7 C and 6.8 C by the 2070s, compared with the period 1981 to 2000.

If the world succeeds in reducing emissions, these temperature rises will be considerably smaller.

The level of detail in the models mean it is possible to see how the climate might change in neighbourhoods across the country.

Hayes in west London, for example, is likely to see some of the most dramatic temperature rises of all, the new data suggests.

The average hottest day in Hayes was 32C around 20 years ago. If emissions continue to accelerate, the new Met Office data suggests the average hottest day could reach a sweltering 40C by around 2070.

If global emissions reduce, this temperature rise will not be so severe.

"I mean, I think it's really frightening. That's a big change, and we're talking about in the course of our lifetime. It's just a wake-up call really as to what we're talking about here," says Dr Kendon.

Summers might not just be hotter, they could be drier too, the Met Office predicts. Summer rain could become less frequent, but when it does rain it is likely to be more intense.

The combination of longer dry periods with sudden heavy downpours could increase the risk of flooding because dry ground doesn't absorb water as well as damp ground.

Warmer wetter winters


Rainfall is expected to increase in many parts of the country in winter too, the Met Office says.

The projections suggest western parts of the UK may get even wetter under a high-emissions scenario.

Of course, some years will always buck the trend by being wetter or cooler than others - and there will be significant regional variations.

This pattern of wetter winters and more intense summer downpours across much of the country risks putting infrastructure under greater strain.



Roads, railways, reservoirs, sewers, bridges and other infrastructure is all designed for the sort of rainfall we have had in the past and much of it may need to be upgraded or even rebuilt to cope with the storms and floods to come.

Last week, the UK government announced ambitious new targets for tackling climate change.

The new goal is to cut the UK's greenhouse gas emission by 68% by the end of the decade, based on 1990 levels.

Boris Johnson hopes the new targets will set an example to other nations, which will join a virtual climate pledges summit on 12 December.

This virtual event will occur in place of annual UN climate talks, which were set to have taken place in Glasgow this year, but were postponed because of Covid-19.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
House of Lords Begins Detailed Legislative Scrutiny of Representation of the People Bill and Cyber Security Laws
Metropolitan Police Detain More Than Three Hundred Individuals Following Large-Scale Demonstration Outside London Embassy
Home Office Prepares Stricter Residency Rules Requiring Vulnerable Migrants to Wait Decade for Settlement Rights
Professional Mental Health Bodies Demand Statutory Regulation for Counsellors and Psychotherapists
National Grid Confirms Construction of Britain's Largest Electrical Substation to Power Teesside Data Centre
Prime Minister Keir Starmer Travels to Samoa for Commonwealth Summit Amid Debates on Economic Cooperation and Reparations
Home Office Implements Enhanced Digital Border Controls and Visa Processing Systems at Major Airports
Office for National Statistics Reports Stable Employment Participation Rates Across Regional Labor Markets
Department for Business and Trade Announces Strategic Partnership to Secure Critical Mineral Supply Chains
Scottish Government Unveils Regional Economic Development Strategy to Boost Advanced Manufacturing in Glasgow and Dundee
Treasury Officials Review Taxation Frameworks and Capital Gains Rules Ahead of Autumn Budget Disclosures
National Health Service Leaders Warn of Winter Capacity Pressures Across Acute Care Facilities
Bank of England Prepares for Key Interest Rate Decision Amid Sticky Inflation and Fiscal Policy Pressures
Home Office Expands Border Security Operations and Intelligence Sharing With European Partners
Office for National Statistics Reports Modest Retail Sales Growth Ahead of Crucial Christmas Trading Season
Welsh Government Unveils Strategic Plan to Boost Regional Technology Innovation and Digital Skills Training
Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs Implements New Agricultural Subsidies Framework for English Farmers
Scottish First Minister John Swinney Announces Major Regional Infrastructure and Green Energy Investment Strategy
National Health Service Leaders Warn of Severe Winter Pressures and Mounting Accident and Emergency Backlogs
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Signals Cautious Interest Rate Path Amid Persistent Services Inflation
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves Finalizes Autumn Budget Framework Aiming to Close Public Sector Fiscal Gap
Department for Science, Innovation and Technology Prepares Enhanced Artificial Intelligence Safety and Cyber Defense Frameworks
United Kingdom Government Expands International Sanctions Framework Against Russian Shadow Fleet and Financial Enablers
Institute of Directors Reports Sharp Post-Budget Drop in Business Confidence Despite Long-Term Investment Intention Shifts
Chancellor John Healey Defends Sweeping Fiscal Adjustments and Household Support Packages Following Autumn Budget
Parliamentary Petitions Committee Schedules Major Legislative Debates on Special Educational Needs and Non-Stun Meat Labelling
Regional Devolution and Good Growth Fund Frameworks Reshape Local Government Funding Across English Regions
Loughborough University Economic Analysts Highlight Substantial Uncertainty Surrounding Public Sector Efficiency Savings
British Legal Sector Drives Sixty Billion Pounds in Annual Economic Output While Employing Over Half a Million Professionals
Law Society Welcomes New Better Regulation Executive While Pressing for Long-Term Legal Aid Funding Reform
Metropolitan Police and Security Services Heighten Operations Across London Ahead of Large-Scale Public Demonstrations
Bank of England Economists Scrutinize Corporate Tax Adjustments and Public Sector Borrowing Pressures
Chancellor John Healey Defends Autumn Budget Tax and Spending Allocations Following Intense Parliamentary Scrutiny
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Implements Strict Water Quality Monitoring Rules Following Severe Rainfall and Flooding
Welsh Government Unveils Comprehensive Regional Housing Strategy to Address Rural Affordability and Homelessness Pressures in Cardiff
Office for National Statistics Reports Slowing Consumer Price Inflation and Steady Retail Performance Across United Kingdom Markets
Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O'Neill and Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly Advance Cross-Border Infrastructure Agreement in Belfast
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Formal Investigation Into Artificial Intelligence Partnerships Involving Major Technology Corporations
Scottish First Minister John Swinney Secures Cross-Party Support for Devolved Budget Framework and Renewable Energy Expansion
High Court Rules in Favor of Environmental Campaigners Over Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Licensing Procedures
National Health Service England Announces Major Digital Modernization and Artificial Intelligence Diagnostic Rollout Across Regional Trusts
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Signals Cautious Approach to Interest Rate Cuts Amid Persistent Wage Growth and Inflation Pressures
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves Outline Strategic Infrastructure Plans to Boost Regional Growth and Private Investment
Water pollution remains high despite £5bn investment
Regional Economic Divergence and Industrial Transformation
Technological Sovereignty and Regulatory Scrutiny
Fiscal Consolidation and Public Service Pressures
Automotive Industry Leadership Warns of Imminent Supply Chain Disruptions Following Recent European Trade Negotiations
High Court Delivers Landmark Ruling Affirming Strict Legal Protections for Corporate Data Privacy Against State Surveillance
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan Secures Additional Funding for Regional Transport Infrastructure and Rail Modernization
×