London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Aug 04, 2026

Chris Mason: Brexit breakthrough is moment of political jeopardy

Chris Mason: Brexit breakthrough is moment of political jeopardy

"Let's hope this is one of the last great rollercoaster moments of Brexit."
So said one government figure to me, anticipating an important moment today - but worldly enough to realise it's not necessarily the end of the story.

These negotiations, between the government and Brussels, the government and Conservative backbenchers, and the government and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), have resembled diplomatic Jenga - wobbly bricks here, there and everywhere.

One element has been all but done for a while, and, we expect, to be sorted today - the deal between London and Brussels.

The prime minister, I hear, spent Sunday calling and texting world leaders with an interest in all of this, and speaking to some cabinet ministers too about the deal to be done on Monday.

There is still the talks between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.

Among the things they will talk about, I'm told, is dealing with what some in London regard as a "democratic deficit" for Northern Ireland - that it needs more of a say about future changes in EU rules that will have an impact there.

But let's be clear: the European Commission president would not be coming here unless it was sorted.

Don't be surprised if her visit also includes some sort of meeting with the King. Buckingham Palace declined to comment when I asked if this would happen.

But it is diplomatically awkward, I'm told, for such promises to be made - as they were last week - for a meeting on Saturday which was then postponed, only for it not to be kept.

I also hear, though, that there are some strong words being exchanged within Whitehall about the whole idea of offering a meeting with the King so close to a major political moment, when Buckingham Palace is always desperate to not look like it is getting involved in politics.

What about the politics of all this for Rishi Sunak?

Downing Street will emphasise what they see as the immediate positives of the deal: a better arrangement for Northern Ireland. And resetting relations with the EU.

Both of these things matter: the former in winning round sceptics, potentially over time, that this does amount to an improvement on what went before.

And the latter for everything else the prime minister has to sort with the cooperation of the European Union, not least the issue of small boat crossings in the Channel.

Mr Sunak is due in Paris next month for talks with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Sorting the small boats issue is tremendously difficult but having a decent working relationship with France would help.

Re-establishing devolved government in Northern Ireland is the ultimate prize, but is not being talked up much right now by government sources.

They hope, of course, that it might follow in time - but that is far from certain. The DUP, having sounded rather sceptical, have now gone rather quiet.

Remember, there are a range of voices within the DUP.

What Downing Street will hope for is that the party formally says it will go away and look at the deal, and examine it in detail, rather than instantly and loudly reject it.

But the politics is tricky for the DUP.

The leader of the Traditional Unionist Voice, Jim Allister - a rival to the DUP - anticipates "a day of unprecedented spin and possibly deception as pressure is piled on unionism to give in on the protocol." - ie he doesn't sound remotely keen.

Then there are Tory Brexiteers.

Some are now in government, and some are won round.

Steve Baker, now a Northern Ireland minister, went into Downing Street over the weekend and came out and gave a very prominent thumbs up in front of the cameras.

But Mark Francois, the chairman of the European Research Group of Tory backbenchers, is not convinced.

And then, there is one Boris Johnson.

What might he say or do, and how much grief might he fancy causing the prime minister? We'll soon find out.

It's why a diplomatic breakthrough for Mr Sunak is also a moment of political jeopardy.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Europe’s Drying Rivers Trigger Power Cuts, Factory Shutdowns and Wildfire Emergencies
Nigel Farage Expresses Openness to Potential Alliance with Restore Britain
AstraZeneca Merger Talks Reflect Intensifying Pharmaceutical Consolidation
University Merger May Set Template for Higher Education Reform
Apple's Legal Challenge Highlights Growing Tension Over Encryption and Surveillance
Prime Minister Andy Burnham's Agenda Signals Shift Toward Greater Regional Devolution
Mental Health Trust Faces Criticism Over Planned £25 Million Budget Cuts
Scientists and Cultural Leaders Call for Funding to Save Jodrell Bank Observatory
UK Manufacturing Output Reaches Highest Level in Nearly Two Years
University of Greenwich and University of Kent Complete Landmark Merger
Nigel Farage Unveils Naval Border Proposal Amid Questions Over £5 Million Donation
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Pledges Tougher Action on Small Boat Crossings
Apple Challenges UK Government Over Encrypted Data Access Demands
AstraZeneca Shares Fall After Reports of $400 Billion Bristol Myers Squibb Merger Talks
Triple Lock Lifts UK State Pension but Leaves a Wider Retirement Gap
Danube Drought Forces Hungary’s Paks Nuclear Plant Into Full Shutdown
Ceuta Death Toll Rises as Spain and Europe Clash Over Border Response
Cuba’s Grid Fails Again as Fuel Crisis Deepens
Nazca Lines Flight Crash Kills Thirteen as Peru Suspends Aerodiana
Modern Slavery Decisions Broaden the Al Fayed Inquiry’s Frame
FIFA’s Retreat Leaves a Larger Question Over Who Guards the Game
Two Firefighting Crew Members Die in Helicopter Collision West of Athens
Public Sector Automation Through Artificial Intelligence
Regional Investment Beyond London
Protection of Strategic Technology Assets
UK Competition Regulator Blocks Major Foreign Takeover of British Quantum Computing Firm
UK Government Commits Two Billion Pounds to Modernise Northern Rail Network
UK Parliament Approves Planning Reforms to Accelerate Housing Construction on Green Belt Land
Scotland Approves Major Floating Offshore Wind Expansion in the North Sea
United Kingdom and European Union Sign Defence and Critical Minerals Cooperation Agreement
NHS Invests Five Hundred Million Pounds in Artificial Intelligence Diagnostics to Reduce Waiting Lists
Bank of England Cuts Interest Rate to Three Point Seven Five Percent as Inflation Pressures Ease
Ceuta Border Surge Recasts Europe’s Migration Debate
Burnham Promises a Harder Channel Response as Crossings Test His New Government
Glasgow 2026 Commonwealth Games End With Organisers Defending Smaller Format as Sustainable Model
Reform UK Faces Labour Criticism Over Nigel Farage Leadership Return Discussions
Environment Agency Restricts River Thames Navigation as Low Water Levels Raise Concerns
UK Government Launches Free Bus Travel Scheme for Children During Summer Holidays
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Confirms October Budget Date and Plans Wider Regional Funding Shift
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Promises Tougher Action on Small Boat Crossings Amid European Migration Pressure
UK Economic Growth Forecast Raised Slightly as Inflation Expected to Remain Above Target Until 2029
National Farmers Union Warns of Food Shortage Risks as Drought and Heatwaves Damage UK Crops
Finland Deploys Commercial-Scale Thermal Batteries Using Crushed Rock to Store Renewable Grid Energy
Valued at $109 Million: F-35B Fighter Jet Crashes in Southern California
Sainsbury Agrees to Sell Argos in £120 Million Deal to Private Consortium
High Court Clears Way for Construction of Chinese Embassy at Royal Mint Court
UK Fuel Prices Climb to Multi-Month Highs as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Disrupt Oil Supplies
Severe Summer Drought and Record Heat Put UK Harvests at Risk
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Faces Labour Backbench Opposition Over Potential Support for New North Sea Oil and Gas Drilling
Bank of England Warns Inflation Will Stay Above 3% as Middle East Energy Shock Prolongs Cost-of-Living Pressures
×