London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Dec 29, 2025

Chris Mason: Brexit breakthrough is moment of political jeopardy

Chris Mason: Brexit breakthrough is moment of political jeopardy

"Let's hope this is one of the last great rollercoaster moments of Brexit."
So said one government figure to me, anticipating an important moment today - but worldly enough to realise it's not necessarily the end of the story.

These negotiations, between the government and Brussels, the government and Conservative backbenchers, and the government and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), have resembled diplomatic Jenga - wobbly bricks here, there and everywhere.

One element has been all but done for a while, and, we expect, to be sorted today - the deal between London and Brussels.

The prime minister, I hear, spent Sunday calling and texting world leaders with an interest in all of this, and speaking to some cabinet ministers too about the deal to be done on Monday.

There is still the talks between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.

Among the things they will talk about, I'm told, is dealing with what some in London regard as a "democratic deficit" for Northern Ireland - that it needs more of a say about future changes in EU rules that will have an impact there.

But let's be clear: the European Commission president would not be coming here unless it was sorted.

Don't be surprised if her visit also includes some sort of meeting with the King. Buckingham Palace declined to comment when I asked if this would happen.

But it is diplomatically awkward, I'm told, for such promises to be made - as they were last week - for a meeting on Saturday which was then postponed, only for it not to be kept.

I also hear, though, that there are some strong words being exchanged within Whitehall about the whole idea of offering a meeting with the King so close to a major political moment, when Buckingham Palace is always desperate to not look like it is getting involved in politics.

What about the politics of all this for Rishi Sunak?

Downing Street will emphasise what they see as the immediate positives of the deal: a better arrangement for Northern Ireland. And resetting relations with the EU.

Both of these things matter: the former in winning round sceptics, potentially over time, that this does amount to an improvement on what went before.

And the latter for everything else the prime minister has to sort with the cooperation of the European Union, not least the issue of small boat crossings in the Channel.

Mr Sunak is due in Paris next month for talks with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Sorting the small boats issue is tremendously difficult but having a decent working relationship with France would help.

Re-establishing devolved government in Northern Ireland is the ultimate prize, but is not being talked up much right now by government sources.

They hope, of course, that it might follow in time - but that is far from certain. The DUP, having sounded rather sceptical, have now gone rather quiet.

Remember, there are a range of voices within the DUP.

What Downing Street will hope for is that the party formally says it will go away and look at the deal, and examine it in detail, rather than instantly and loudly reject it.

But the politics is tricky for the DUP.

The leader of the Traditional Unionist Voice, Jim Allister - a rival to the DUP - anticipates "a day of unprecedented spin and possibly deception as pressure is piled on unionism to give in on the protocol." - ie he doesn't sound remotely keen.

Then there are Tory Brexiteers.

Some are now in government, and some are won round.

Steve Baker, now a Northern Ireland minister, went into Downing Street over the weekend and came out and gave a very prominent thumbs up in front of the cameras.

But Mark Francois, the chairman of the European Research Group of Tory backbenchers, is not convinced.

And then, there is one Boris Johnson.

What might he say or do, and how much grief might he fancy causing the prime minister? We'll soon find out.

It's why a diplomatic breakthrough for Mr Sunak is also a moment of political jeopardy.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Apple Escalates Legal Fight by Appealing £1.5 Billion UK Ruling Over App Store Fees
UK Debt Levels Sit Mid-Range Among Advanced Economies Despite Rising Pressures
UK Plans Royal Diplomacy with King Charles and Prince William to Reinvigorate Trade Talks with US
King Charles and Prince William Poised for Separate 2026 US Visits to Reinforce UK-US Trade and Diplomatic Ties
Apple Moves to Appeal UK Ruling Ordering £1.5 Billion in Customer Overcharge Damages
King Charles’s 2025 Christmas Message Tops UK Television Ratings on Christmas Day
The Battle Over the Internet Explodes: The United States Bars European Officials and Ignites a Diplomatic Crisis
Princesses Beatrice and Eugenie Join Royal Family at Sandringham Christmas Service
Fine Wine Investors Find Little Cheer in Third Year of Falls
UK Mortgage Rates Edge Lower as Bank of England Base Rate Cut Filters Through Lending Market
U.S. Supermarket Gives Customers Free Groceries for Christmas After Computer Glitch
Air India ‘Finds’ a Plane That Vanished 13 Years Ago
Caviar and Foie Gras? China Is Becoming a Luxury Food Powerhouse
Hong Kong Climbs to Second Globally in 2025 Tourism Rankings Behind Bangkok
From Sunniest Year on Record to Terror Plots and Sports Triumphs: The UK’s Defining Stories of 2025
Greta Thunberg Released on Bail After Arrest at London Pro-Palestinian Demonstration
Banksy Unveils New Winter Mural in London Amid Festive Season Excitement
UK Households Face Rising Financial Strain as Tax Increases Bite and Growth Loses Momentum
UK Government Approves Universal Studios Theme Park in Bedford Poised to Rival Disneyland Paris
UK Gambling Shares Slide as Traders Respond to Steep Tax Rises and Sector Uncertainty
Starmer and Trump Coordinate on Ukraine Peace Efforts in Latest Diplomatic Call
The Pilot Barricaded Himself in the Cockpit and Refused to Take Off: "We Are Not Leaving Until I Receive My Salary"
UK Fashion Label LK Bennett Pursues Accelerated Sale Amid Financial Struggles
U.S. Government Warns UK Over Free Speech in Pro-Life Campaigner Prosecution
Newly Released Files Shed Light on Jeffrey Epstein’s Extensive Links to the United Kingdom
Prince William and Prince George Volunteer Together at UK Homelessness Charity
UK Police Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’ as Authorities Recalibrate Free Speech Enforcement
Scambodia: The World Owes Thailand’s Military a Profound Debt of Gratitude
Women in Partial Nudity — and Bill Clinton in a Dress and Heels: The Images Revealed in the “Epstein Files”
US Envoy Witkoff to Convene Security Advisers from Ukraine, UK, France and Germany in Miami as Peace Efforts Intensify
UK Retailers Report Sharp Pre-Christmas Sales Decline and Weak Outlook, CBI Survey Shows
UK Government Rejects Use of Frozen Russian Assets to Fund Aid for Ukraine
UK Financial Conduct Authority Opens Formal Investigation into WH Smith After Accounting Errors
UK Issues Final Ultimatum to Roman Abramovich Over £2.5bn Chelsea Sale Funds for Ukraine
Rare Pink Fog Sweeps Across Parts of the UK as Met Office Warns of Poor Visibility
UK Police Pledge ‘More Assertive’ Enforcement to Tackle Antisemitism at Protests
UK Police Warn They Will Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’
Trump Files $10 Billion Defamation Lawsuit Against BBC as Broadcaster Pledges Legal Defence
UK Says U.S. Tech Deal Talks Still Active Despite Washington’s Suspension of Prosperity Pact
UK Mortgage Rules to Give Greater Flexibility to Borrowers With Irregular Incomes
UK Treasury Moves to Position Britain as Leading Global Hub for Crypto Firms
U.S. Freezes £31 Billion Tech Prosperity Deal With Britain Amid Trade Dispute
Prince Harry and Meghan’s Potential UK Return Gains New Momentum Amid Security Review and Royal Dialogue
Zelensky Opens High-Stakes Peace Talks in Berlin with Trump Envoy and European Leaders
Historical Reflections on Press Freedom Emerge Amid Debate Over Trump’s Media Policies
UK Boosts Protection for Jewish Communities After Sydney Hanukkah Attack
UK Government Declines to Comment After ICC Prosecutor Alleges Britain Threatened to Defund Court Over Israel Arrest Warrant
Apple Shutters All Retail Stores in the United Kingdom Under New National COVID-19 Lockdown
US–UK Technology Partnership Strains as Key Trade Disagreements Emerge
UK Police Confirm No Further Action Over Allegation That Andrew Asked Bodyguard to Investigate Virginia Giuffre
×