London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Jul 19, 2026

Chris Mason: Brexit breakthrough is moment of political jeopardy

Chris Mason: Brexit breakthrough is moment of political jeopardy

"Let's hope this is one of the last great rollercoaster moments of Brexit."
So said one government figure to me, anticipating an important moment today - but worldly enough to realise it's not necessarily the end of the story.

These negotiations, between the government and Brussels, the government and Conservative backbenchers, and the government and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), have resembled diplomatic Jenga - wobbly bricks here, there and everywhere.

One element has been all but done for a while, and, we expect, to be sorted today - the deal between London and Brussels.

The prime minister, I hear, spent Sunday calling and texting world leaders with an interest in all of this, and speaking to some cabinet ministers too about the deal to be done on Monday.

There is still the talks between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.

Among the things they will talk about, I'm told, is dealing with what some in London regard as a "democratic deficit" for Northern Ireland - that it needs more of a say about future changes in EU rules that will have an impact there.

But let's be clear: the European Commission president would not be coming here unless it was sorted.

Don't be surprised if her visit also includes some sort of meeting with the King. Buckingham Palace declined to comment when I asked if this would happen.

But it is diplomatically awkward, I'm told, for such promises to be made - as they were last week - for a meeting on Saturday which was then postponed, only for it not to be kept.

I also hear, though, that there are some strong words being exchanged within Whitehall about the whole idea of offering a meeting with the King so close to a major political moment, when Buckingham Palace is always desperate to not look like it is getting involved in politics.

What about the politics of all this for Rishi Sunak?

Downing Street will emphasise what they see as the immediate positives of the deal: a better arrangement for Northern Ireland. And resetting relations with the EU.

Both of these things matter: the former in winning round sceptics, potentially over time, that this does amount to an improvement on what went before.

And the latter for everything else the prime minister has to sort with the cooperation of the European Union, not least the issue of small boat crossings in the Channel.

Mr Sunak is due in Paris next month for talks with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Sorting the small boats issue is tremendously difficult but having a decent working relationship with France would help.

Re-establishing devolved government in Northern Ireland is the ultimate prize, but is not being talked up much right now by government sources.

They hope, of course, that it might follow in time - but that is far from certain. The DUP, having sounded rather sceptical, have now gone rather quiet.

Remember, there are a range of voices within the DUP.

What Downing Street will hope for is that the party formally says it will go away and look at the deal, and examine it in detail, rather than instantly and loudly reject it.

But the politics is tricky for the DUP.

The leader of the Traditional Unionist Voice, Jim Allister - a rival to the DUP - anticipates "a day of unprecedented spin and possibly deception as pressure is piled on unionism to give in on the protocol." - ie he doesn't sound remotely keen.

Then there are Tory Brexiteers.

Some are now in government, and some are won round.

Steve Baker, now a Northern Ireland minister, went into Downing Street over the weekend and came out and gave a very prominent thumbs up in front of the cameras.

But Mark Francois, the chairman of the European Research Group of Tory backbenchers, is not convinced.

And then, there is one Boris Johnson.

What might he say or do, and how much grief might he fancy causing the prime minister? We'll soon find out.

It's why a diplomatic breakthrough for Mr Sunak is also a moment of political jeopardy.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Current AI Seeks to Build an Open Global AI Infrastructure Outside Big Tech Control
Turkey Explores S-400 Transfer to UAE in Bid to Rejoin F-35 Program
Germany’s Economic Malaise Reopens the Sunday Shopping Debate
Singapore Considers Lower Taxes for Fund Managers as Hong Kong Intensifies Talent Contest
US Retaliates Against Iran After Two American Troops Killed in Jordan
Bank of Asia BVI Enters Court-Supervised Liquidation After Regulators Find It Insolvent
Proposed U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Pact Could Permit Limited Uranium Enrichment Under International Safeguards
Netherlands Declares Water Shortage Emergency After Drought Pushes Rivers to Historic Lows
Why Kentucky Fried Chicken Became KFC—and Why the False Explanations Persist
Iran Claims It Destroyed Bahrain’s Main Artificial Intelligence Center in Missile and Drone Strike
Ukrainian Drones Strike Wildberries Warehouses Deep Inside Russia
Brothers Andrew and Tristan Tate Who Turned "Toxic Masculinity" Into a Brand Arrested in Miami as Britain Seeks Their Extradition
Reported CIA Mission Helped Clear the UAE’s Path to Advanced US AI Chips
Artificial Intelligence Capital Fuels Markets While Governments and Regulators Face Mounting Strategic Tests
China’s Moonshot’s Kimi K3 Narrows the Gap With Anthropic Through Scale, Openness and Lower Cost
Gold and Cash Seizure Puts Indonesia’s Senior Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Under Investigation
The Ledger Will Not Trust on Faith
Bank of England Warns Climate Shocks Could Trigger Sudden Asset Repricing
UK Treasury Places Microsoft, Google, AWS and Oracle Under New Financial Resilience Rules
Scottish Government Faces Pressure Over Delays in Vulnerable Group Background Checks
Crown Prosecution Service Authorises Additional Charges Against Andrew and Tristan Tate
NHS Approves At-Home Cancer Treatments for Rare Blood Disorders
Bank of England Gains Oversight of Major Cloud Providers Supporting UK Financial System
UK Government Plans Major Overhaul of English Local Councils Through New Unitary Authorities
British Steel Nationalisation Dispute Escalates as Chinese Owner Jingye Seeks Compensation
Bank of England Signals Interest Rates Will Stay High as It Warns of Financial Risks From Climate and AI
Trump Administration Pressures Banks to Restrict Financial Access for Undocumented Immigrants
Passenger Bound for Germany Refused to Sit Beside a Woman on a Plane — Then Slapped a Flight Attendant
Ukraine’s Leadership Rift Spills Into the Streets as Protesters Target Army Chief
Ukrainian Drone Barrage Kills Eight and Strikes Russian Logistics Network
Key Trends to Watch
Financial Conduct Authority Warns Cloud and Digital Risks Are Becoming a Financial Priority
Jeffrey Donaldson Appeals Sexual Abuse Conviction as Democratic Unionist Party Opens Review
Welsh Health Authorities Launch Emergency Meningitis Vaccination Programme for Students
Scottish Business Activity Falls for Third Month as Companies Face Rising Costs
Bank of England Regulators Demand Better Access to Digital Banking Services
United Kingdom Cuts Bilateral Aid to Several African Countries by Up to Ninety Per Cent
United Kingdom Introduces Tougher Deportation Rules After Rochdale Exploitation Scandal
NHS England Launches Wearable Technology Plan to Reduce Sepsis Deaths
Amazon Web Services Billing Error Sends Trillion-Dollar Invoices to British Companies
Bank of England Takes Direct Regulatory Role Over Major Global Cloud Providers
Extreme Summer Heat Drives Record Fire Risk and Rising Deaths Across Britain
United Kingdom Nationalisation of British Steel Sparks Diplomatic Dispute With China
United Kingdom Economy Shows Weak Growth Ahead of Major Autumn Budget
Andy Burnham Set to Become United Kingdom Prime Minister After Labour Leadership Victory
The Ten World Cup Finals That Defined Football History
Smartphones Are Getting More Expensive, Sales Are Collapsing, and Even Apple Admits: "Prices Will Rise"
The Monaco Bombing Has Become a Test of Ukraine’s Intelligence Accountability
Leadership Change and Strategic Rivalry Redraw the Political Map
Energy Risk, Uneven Growth and the New Geography of Global Capital
×