London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Nov 06, 2026

Chris Mason: Brexit breakthrough is moment of political jeopardy

Chris Mason: Brexit breakthrough is moment of political jeopardy

"Let's hope this is one of the last great rollercoaster moments of Brexit."
So said one government figure to me, anticipating an important moment today - but worldly enough to realise it's not necessarily the end of the story.

These negotiations, between the government and Brussels, the government and Conservative backbenchers, and the government and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), have resembled diplomatic Jenga - wobbly bricks here, there and everywhere.

One element has been all but done for a while, and, we expect, to be sorted today - the deal between London and Brussels.

The prime minister, I hear, spent Sunday calling and texting world leaders with an interest in all of this, and speaking to some cabinet ministers too about the deal to be done on Monday.

There is still the talks between Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.

Among the things they will talk about, I'm told, is dealing with what some in London regard as a "democratic deficit" for Northern Ireland - that it needs more of a say about future changes in EU rules that will have an impact there.

But let's be clear: the European Commission president would not be coming here unless it was sorted.

Don't be surprised if her visit also includes some sort of meeting with the King. Buckingham Palace declined to comment when I asked if this would happen.

But it is diplomatically awkward, I'm told, for such promises to be made - as they were last week - for a meeting on Saturday which was then postponed, only for it not to be kept.

I also hear, though, that there are some strong words being exchanged within Whitehall about the whole idea of offering a meeting with the King so close to a major political moment, when Buckingham Palace is always desperate to not look like it is getting involved in politics.

What about the politics of all this for Rishi Sunak?

Downing Street will emphasise what they see as the immediate positives of the deal: a better arrangement for Northern Ireland. And resetting relations with the EU.

Both of these things matter: the former in winning round sceptics, potentially over time, that this does amount to an improvement on what went before.

And the latter for everything else the prime minister has to sort with the cooperation of the European Union, not least the issue of small boat crossings in the Channel.

Mr Sunak is due in Paris next month for talks with French President Emmanuel Macron.

Sorting the small boats issue is tremendously difficult but having a decent working relationship with France would help.

Re-establishing devolved government in Northern Ireland is the ultimate prize, but is not being talked up much right now by government sources.

They hope, of course, that it might follow in time - but that is far from certain. The DUP, having sounded rather sceptical, have now gone rather quiet.

Remember, there are a range of voices within the DUP.

What Downing Street will hope for is that the party formally says it will go away and look at the deal, and examine it in detail, rather than instantly and loudly reject it.

But the politics is tricky for the DUP.

The leader of the Traditional Unionist Voice, Jim Allister - a rival to the DUP - anticipates "a day of unprecedented spin and possibly deception as pressure is piled on unionism to give in on the protocol." - ie he doesn't sound remotely keen.

Then there are Tory Brexiteers.

Some are now in government, and some are won round.

Steve Baker, now a Northern Ireland minister, went into Downing Street over the weekend and came out and gave a very prominent thumbs up in front of the cameras.

But Mark Francois, the chairman of the European Research Group of Tory backbenchers, is not convinced.

And then, there is one Boris Johnson.

What might he say or do, and how much grief might he fancy causing the prime minister? We'll soon find out.

It's why a diplomatic breakthrough for Mr Sunak is also a moment of political jeopardy.
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
High Court Rules in Favor of Comprehensive Transparency Review Regarding Government Artificial Intelligence Procurement Contracts
Home Office Expands Digital Border Security and Electronic Travel Authorization Systems Across International Arrivals
Scottish Government Confirms Accelerated Investment in Offshore Renewable Energy Infrastructure Across North Sea Corridors
Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs Implements Stricter Water Company Oversight and Environmental Penalties
National Health Service England Unveils Emergency Winter Resilience Package to Tackle Acute Accident and Emergency Backlogs
Office for National Statistics Reports Gross Domestic Product Growth Stagnated at Zero Point One Percent in Third Quarter
Chancellor of the Exchequer Outlines Comprehensive Fiscal Strategy to Stabilize National Borrowing and Public Spending
Bank of England Maintains Base Interest Rate at Five Percent Amid Persistent Service Sector Inflation Pressures
Office for National Statistics Reports Stable Consumer Confidence and Modest Retail Growth Heading into Winter
Welsh Government Launches Strategic Regional Transport Initiative to Modernize Rail Links Across South Wales
Home Office Expands Digital Border Security Controls and Electronic Travel Authorisations for Inbound Visitors
Scottish Government Announces Emergency Housing Investment Package to Tackle Urban Homelessness Crises
Northern Ireland Executive Reaches Bipartisan Consensus on Public Sector Pay Reform and Budget Allocations
Automotive Manufacturing Sector in the West Midlands Welcomes New Electric Vehicle Supply Chain Investments
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Approves Offshore Wind Expansion in the North Sea
HM Treasury Finalizes Regulatory Framework for Stablecoins and Digital Asset Markets in London
National Health Service Unveils Comprehensive Digital Integration Strategy to Slash Hospital Waiting Lists
Bank of England Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged Amid Persistent Wage Growth and Inflationary Pressures
United Kingdom and Caribbean Nations Agree to Establish Formal Diplomatic Dialogue Following Reparations Discussions
Cambridge University Appoints Senior Barrister to Lead Independent Review into Death of Academic Jason Arday
Historic Hastings Castle and Kent Dickens Chalet Added to National Heritage at Risk Register Amid Deterioration Concerns
Incoming British Ambassador to Japan Calls for Deepened Bilateral Cooperation on Artificial Intelligence and Semiconductors
Milburn Review Urges Employment Revolution to Unlock Workforce Opportunities for Young Disabled Britons
British Healthcare Worker Evacuated from Democratic Republic of Congo to United Kingdom Following Ebola Exposure
United Nations Refugee Agency Criticises Government Proposal for Thirty-Year Earned Settlement Pathways for Asylum Seekers
Parliamentary Inquiry Warns United Kingdom Remains Exposed to Chinese Critical Mineral Dependencies
Bank of England Prepares Interest Rate Decision as Inflation Pressures Prompt Expectation of Four Percent Benchmark
Department for Business and Trade Overhauls Protection Standards for Digital Animation and Moving Image Files
Intellectual Property Office Introduces Thirty-Month Grace Period for International Product Launches
Intellectual Property Office Targets Anti-Competitive Filings With New Powers to Verify Novelty Before Registration
Creative Industries Minister Ian Murray Praises Regulatory Reforms to Safeguard Small Businesses and Micro-Enterprises
Government Unveils Major Design Framework Overhaul to Protect British Creators and Boost Economy
Global Asset Management Reports Surge in British Dividend Payouts Driven by Strong Financial and Mining Sectors
HM Treasury Confirms Strongest Group of Seven Growth Figures as Fiscal Consolidation Plans Progress
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Approves Construction of New North Sea Offshore Wind Hub
Northern Ireland Executive Finalizes Public Sector Pay Agreements Following Months of Inter-Agency Negotiations
Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan Secures Cross-Party Support for Regional Clean Energy Infrastructure Bill
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Formal Investigation Into Dominant Artificial Intelligence Cloud Partnerships
United Kingdom Foreign Secretary David Lammy Concludes High-Level Diplomatic Mission to Washington and Ottawa
Scottish Government Announces Emergency Housing Investment Package to Address Escalating Urban Homelessness
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Finalizes Corporate Tax Adjustments Ahead of Upcoming Business Investment Summit
National Health Service England Unveils Emergency Winter Resilience Plan to Combat Projected A&E Overcrowding
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Votes to Hold Base Interest Rate Steady at Four Point Seven5 Per Cent
UK Gross Domestic Product Expands by Zero Point Four Per Cent in Third Quarter Driven by Resilient Services Growth
Northern Ireland Executive Agrees on Multi-Year Public Sector Pay Restructuring Framework at Stormont
Department for Transport Confirms Acceleration of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Rollout Along Strategic Motorways
Welsh Government Announces Emergency Funding Package to Support Agricultural Sector Facing Severe Weather Impacts
High Court Rules in Favor of Environmental Coalition Over Government Carbon Reduction Plan Deficiencies
Office for National Statistics Reports Stable Retail Sales Growth Supported by Strong Digital Commerce Volumes
Scottish First Minister John Swinney Secures Cross-Party Support for Renewable Energy Export Expansion
×