London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Jul 24, 2025

China has little to gain but much to lose as Russia’s ally

China has little to gain but much to lose as Russia’s ally

The uneasy friendship and ties that bind China and Russia counter long-standing issues of mistrust over the years

In just a few days, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended decades of international relations thinking and practices. Nothing will be the same as before. Even the 5,000-word statement on “international relations in a new era” issued by China and Russia just a month ago in Beijing – to make the world safe for autocracy – has been overtaken by events. In this ugly Russian quagmire, China’s role and behaviour merit close attention, not least as we wonder whether Ukraine today may be Taiwan tomorrow.

China and Russia have been getting closer for some time. The binds are visible in bilateral trade, which has more than doubled since 2015 to almost $150bn. China is Russia’s biggest trade partner. While Russia is almost a rounding error in China’s global exports, the two countries collaborate in military exercises, regional security arrangements and technology trade. These binds go some way to counter other differences and long-standing sources of mistrust, for example over Russian far east and central Asia. Yet, the biggest bind of all is geopolitics.

Headed by control-obsessed dictators pledged to remain in power and protect their elites, they have both been gifted political opportunities created by, for example, the long tail of the 2008 “western” financial crisis, Brexit and European political weakness, Donald Trump, and Covid management issues in many democracies. They are joined at the hip in their pursuit of an anti-US and anti-western agenda in which they want to reshape the world order, including by force.

Putin’s awkward and brutal invasion of Ukraine doesn’t change any of this but it has changed the Sino-Russian relationship consummated at the Olympics on 4 February, and caused China consternation. Considerable speculation focuses on what Xi Jinping knew. It is hard to believe Xi was not forewarned about something, especially as the US tried to brief him with intelligence only to be rebuffed. We also know Russian troops were subsequently moved from the far east to Ukraine, and China is thought to have bought back previously released oil into its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

Whatever the reality, China is deemed to have been complicit, at least by supporting Russia and backing it since, leaving it uncomfortably on a spiky fence.


Xi won’t back away from Putin because to do so would lead to much embarrassment and humiliation at home – a non-starter, especially in this key year ending with the 20th Party Congress. Yet, standing by Putin, and supporting overtly the weak Russian economy associates China firmly with a pariah state and erodes such trust and credibility in China’s statecraft. China’s list of friends globally isn’t that big or impressive anyway.

With strong leverage over Russia now, China can help its beleaguered neighbour, which, with its main banks excluded from the global financial system, its foreign exchange reserves frozen, and firms and persons subject to sanctions and asset freezes, has become a vassal state of China. It can buy much more energy and resources, and subject to ubiquitous sanctions laws, make loans, provide funds via currency swap agreements, trade in yuan, and supply semiconductors and other technology goods.

Yet, China will have to be careful to calibrate an image which isn’t overly accommodating, and reminds the world both that it can be an agent for important public goods, such as peace-broking in Ukraine, and that it wants the global system to remain relatively open.

Remember that, unlike Russia, China’s ambitions depend on a relatively open world economy in trade and technology, and on global and regional institutions which it would like to re-shape to suit its own interests. This is all at risk now if democracy-supporting nations choose to push a Russia-supporting China further away – or if China doubles down to insulate itself. China was certainly shocked how the EU, in particular, and the US came together purposefully and forcefully to freeze Russia out of the system. China’s continuing dependency on key western technologies and markets remains, despite acts of decoupling and self-reliance. It would certainly not want to risk being in the cross-hairs of a Russia-type financial war over, for example, Taiwan.

Beijing regards Taiwan as an inalienable part of China, and so its recent proclamation of support for the territorial integrity of Ukraine and others should not be taken at face value. China has never ruled out taking Taiwan by force, but Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, if anything, makes comparable Chinese action over Taiwan less, rather than more, likely.

From a rational standpoint at least, China will surely note that in war, best laid plans do go awry, resistance by people desperate for their country is a deserving cliche, and the US Pacific fleet and other Quad forces are close. It will be strongly aware, moreover, that “western” and other global economic and financial pushback is anything but a spent force and potentially highly effective. If Russia, as basically a commodity producer, is so sensitive to financial war, then China, as an economic colossus with strong dependencies, is at even bigger risk. Note also that Japan has revived a debate about taking US nuclear weapons, and ended the policy of ambiguity over Taiwan’s political status.

China’s new Russia relationship remains but it has changed radically. It now has high leverage over Russia but, by close association, little to gain globally and much to lose. Xi has no good options, and difficult choices to make as he tries to walk the line between supporting Russia and rebuilding friendly relations with the west. We need to remain on guard against thinking China’s totalitarian leader will be different from what Russia’s always was.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
TSUNAMI: Trump Just Crossed the Rubicon—And There’s No Turning Back
Over 120 Criminal Cases Dismissed in Boston Amid Public Defender Shortage
UN's Top Court Declares Environmental Protection a Legal Obligation Under International Law
"Crazy Thing": OpenAI's Sam Altman Warns Of AI Voice Fraud Crisis In Banking
The Podcaster Who Accidentally Revealed He Earns Over $10 Million a Year
Trump Announces $550 Billion Japanese Investment and New Trade Agreements with Indonesia and the Philippines
US Treasury Secretary Calls for Institutional Review of Federal Reserve Amid AI‑Driven Growth Expectations
UK Government Considers Dropping Demand for Apple Encryption Backdoor
Severe Flooding in South Korea Claims Lives Amid Ongoing Rescue Operations
Japanese Man Discovers Family Connection Through DNA Testing After Decades of Separation
Russia Signals Openness to Ukraine Peace Talks Amid Escalating Drone Warfare
Switzerland Implements Ban on Mammography Screening
Japanese Prime Minister Vows to Stay After Coalition Loses Upper House Majority
Pogacar Extends Dominance with Stage Fifteen Triumph at Tour de France
CEO Resigns Amid Controversy Over Relationship with HR Executive
Man Dies After Being Pulled Into MRI Machine Due to Metal Chain in New York Clinic
NVIDIA Achieves $4 Trillion Valuation Amid AI Demand
US Revokes Visas of Brazilian Corrupted Judges Amid Fake Bolsonaro Investigation
U.S. Congress Approves Rescissions Act Cutting Federal Funding for NPR and PBS
North Korea Restricts Foreign Tourist Access to New Seaside Resort
Brazil's Supreme Court Imposes Radical Restrictions on Former President Bolsonaro
Centrist Criticism of von der Leyen Resurfaces as she Survives EU Confidence Vote
Judge Criticizes DOJ Over Secrecy in Dropping Charges Against Gang Leader
Apple Closes $16.5 Billion Tax Dispute With Ireland
Von der Leyen Faces Setback Over €2 Trillion EU Budget Proposal
UK and Germany Collaborate on Global Military Equipment Sales
Trump Plans Over 10% Tariffs on African and Caribbean Nations
Flying Taxi CEO Reclaims Billionaire Status After Stock Surge
Epstein Files Deepen Republican Party Divide
Zuckerberg Faces $8 Billion Privacy Lawsuit From Meta Shareholders
FIFA Pressured to Rethink World Cup Calendar Due to Climate Change
SpaceX Nears $400 Billion Valuation With New Share Sale
Microsoft, US Lab to Use AI for Faster Nuclear Plant Licensing
Trump Walks Back Talk of Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell
Zelensky Reshuffles Cabinet to Win Support at Home and in Washington
"Can You Hit Moscow?" Trump Asked Zelensky To Make Putin "Feel The Pain"
Irish Tech Worker Detained 100 days by US Authorities for Overstaying Visa
Dimon Warns on Fed Independence as Trump Administration Eyes Powell’s Succession
Church of England Removes 1991 Sexuality Guidelines from Clergy Selection
Superman Franchise Achieves Success with Latest Release
Hungary's Viktor Orban Rejects Agreements on Illegal Migration
Jeff Bezos Considers Purchasing Condé Nast as a Wedding Gift
Ghislaine Maxwell Says She’s Ready to Testify Before Congress on Epstein’s Criminal Empire
Bal des Pompiers: A Celebration of Community and Firefighter Culture in France
FBI Chief Kash Patel Denies Resignation Speculations Amid Epstein List Controversy
Air India Pilot’s Mental Health Records Under Scrutiny
Google Secures Windsurf AI Coding Team in $2.4 Billion Licence Deal
Jamie Dimon Warns Europe Is Losing Global Competitiveness and Flags Market Complacency
South African Police Minister Suspended Amid Organised Crime Allegations
Nvidia CEO Claims Chinese Military Reluctance to Use US AI Technology
×