London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Sep 15, 2026

A vaccine will be a game-changer for international travel. But it's not everything

A vaccine will be a game-changer for international travel. But it's not everything

With a vaccine now rolling out in the UK, other countries won't be far behind. But a vaccine won't single-handedly ensure the virus doesn't cross international borders when travel picks up.

The world has been eagerly awaiting a Covid vaccine, touted since early in the pandemic as our best hope of returning to "normal." A big part of this is the resumption of international travel.

Certainly, an effective vaccine brings this prospect much closer. But a vaccine alone won't ensure a safe return to international travel. There are several other things countries will need to consider.

International travel in the age of a Covid vaccine


When people are vaccinated before boarding a flight, it will reduce the risk of Covid-19 transmission associated with international travel. However, the data we have at the moment doesn't tell us everything we need to know.

Let's take the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine as an example. They have reported the efficacy of their mRNA vaccine to be 95% in preventing symptomatic Covid-19, having tested it on around half of the 43,000 participants in their phase 3 trial (the other half received a placebo).

The vaccine appears to be safe with only mild side-effects in some participants. And notably, the study included people aged 65 and over and those with health conditions that put them at higher risk of more severe disease.

However, the study hasn't officially reported the efficacy of the vaccine against becoming infected, as opposed to displaying symptoms. While it's encouraging to know a vaccine stops people getting sick, this point is important because if people can still become infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes Covid-19), they may still be able to spread it.

Uğur Şahin, BioNTech's cofounder and chief executive, believes the vaccine could reduce transmission by 50%. This puts something of a dampener on vaccination being the key to the safe resumption of international travel.

At this stage, we also don't know how long immunity will last for those vaccinated with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. But as the trial will continue for several more months, some of this data should become available in 2021.


Over time, vaccine trials will reveal more data.


Not everyone will be vaccinated straight away, so we'll still need quarantine


It's going to take months -- or, more realistically, years -- to vaccinate everybody who wants to be vaccinated. It won't be feasible to expect every single person traveling internationally to be vaccinated.

There are several countries that appear never to have had community transmission. As of November, these included many Pacific island nations such as Tonga, Kiribati, Micronesia, Palau, Samoa and Tuvalu.

Then there are countries that have Covid-19 under control with little, if any, community transmission. Examples include Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam and Singapore.

People arriving in Australia from these countries pose very little risk and should not need to quarantine, whether vaccinated or not. For other countries, it would very much depend on their epidemic situation at the time.

Some organizations have already developed Covid risk ratings for different countries or jurisdictions. For example, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) rates the Covid situation in each European country as "stable," "of concern" or "of serious concern."

These risk assessments are based on factors including each country's 14-day Covid case notification rate, the proportion of tests coming back positive, and the rate of deaths.

Clearly, people from high-risk areas or countries will still need to quarantine on arrival, unless they have been vaccinated. It's likely Australia will develop a similar rating system to the ECDC to streamline these decisions.

Testing


Many countries now require a negative Covid test certificate before entry. For example, Spain requires a negative PCR test no more than 72 hours before traveling.

Similarly, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) that sets standards for airlines has called for pre-departure Covid-19 testing.

It would also make sense to have rapid antigen testing available at airport arrivals or border crossings. Although not as accurate as PCR tests, these tests would provide a second check that a traveler hasn't incubated Covid-19 on the way to their destination.

Even with vaccination, testing will still be important, as vaccination doesn't guarantee a passenger is not infected, or infectious.


Covid-19 has necessitated many changes to the way we travel.

Certificates and passports


Once Covid-19 vaccines become accessible, countries and airlines may well require visitors to produce a certificate of vaccination.

Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce has suggested all Qantas international passengers from next year would be required to have a Covid vaccination certificate.

There are also many groups around the world working on immunity passports and technologies to track travelers' virus status.

For example, IATA is developing a digital health pass which will carry testing and vaccination status.

It's likely international travel will be allowed globally in the second half of next year, once vaccination is well underway.

It will be wonderful to be able to travel internationally again, but wherever we go -- even with a vaccine -- it will be some time before travel looks like it did before the pandemic.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Advertising Industry Warns Wider Junk Food Rules Could Put £1 Billion in Media Spending at Risk
Cornwall Opens Devolution Talks With UK Government Over Transport and Local Services
UK Parliament Considers Sovereign Grant Reform Setting Royal Funding at £99.9 Million
Trades Union Congress Calls for Income-Based Energy Tariff Funded by Higher Bank Levy
UK Prime Minister Rejects Second Scottish Independence Referendum
House of Lords Begins Scrutiny of Bill to Lower UK Voting Age to 16
Anthropic Says Claude Was Exploited in Weapons-Related and State-Linked Cyber Activity
Institute of Directors Urges UK Government to Avoid Business Tax Increases in Autumn Budget
Rising Gilt Yields Cut UK Fiscal Headroom to About £13 Billion Ahead of Budget
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Services and Technology Activity Strengthen
UK Government Promises Clearer Student Loan Guidance After Repayment Backlash
Charities Warn Unpaid Carers May Die Before Receiving Government Compensation
Dover Unrest Prompts Review of UK Counter-Extremism Strategy
Celtic Summit Leaders Reassert Right to Pursue Independence From UK
NHS Records Busiest Summer on Record Amid Severe Heatwaves
Harrods Faces Potential £150 Million Compensation Bill Over Al Fayed Abuse Claims
UK Parliament Opens Debate on Landmark Assisted Dying Legislation
Metropolitan Police Investigate Reform UK Over Alleged Foreign Electoral Donations
UK Economy Expands 0.4% in July as AI Investment Boosts Activity
Bank of England Signals Caution on Rates as Inflation Pressures Persist
Tesco Alerts Police After Scammers Use Its Branding in AI-Generated Fraud
Lindy Cameron Appointed First Female Permanent Under-Secretary at UK Foreign Office
UK Government to Rewrite Student Loan Guidance After Mis-Selling Criticism
Welsh First Minister Warns Andy Burnham Government to Respect Devolution
Trump’s Falkland Islands Remarks Trigger New Diplomatic Tension With Britain
Reform UK Receives Record £72 Million Donation From Cryptocurrency Billionaires
UK Bans Imports From Israeli West Bank Settlements and Sanctions Supporting Institutions
Bayeux Tapestry Draws Large Crowds at British Museum
Cuts to International Aid Raise Concerns Over Fragile Overseas Health Systems
UK Airlines and Logistics Operators Adjust Capacity as Fuel Costs Rise
UK Mortgage Arrears Edge Lower in Second Quarter
UK Government Advances New Devolution Offers for English Councils
UK Parliament Begins Debate on NHS Governance and Single Patient Record Reforms
Andy Burnham Launches Number 10 North Devolution Initiative
UK Parliament Rejects Assisted Dying Bill for Terminally Ill Adults
UK Bans Goods From Israeli Settlements in the Occupied West Bank
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Technology Services Strengthen
Metropolitan Police Continue Investigation Into Reform UK Political Financing
Chinese Crypto Entrepreneur Leon Li Identified as Seller of £190 Million London Mansion
Trades Union Congress Proposes Social Energy Tariff Funded by Higher Bank Surcharge
British Chambers of Commerce Calls for State Pension Triple Lock to Be Scrapped
Anthropic Says Claude Helped Disrupt Biological Weapons and Cyber Espionage Threats
UK Imposes Sanctions Over Israeli Settlements and West Bank Violence
UK Reimposes Sectoral Sanctions on Iran’s Aviation, Shipping and Energy Networks
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as AI and Programming Services Lift Activity
UK House of Commons Rejects Assisted Dying Bill by 286 Votes to 270
UK Reviews Nationwide Emergency Alert Tests After Systems Meet Reliability Targets
UK Seeks Faster Rail Links Across Northern Industrial Corridors
British Business Bank Allocates £150 Million for High-Growth Companies in Northern England
BBC Warns Staff Strikes Are Possible Amid Pay Dispute and £500 Million Savings Drive
×