London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Friday, Aug 08, 2025

What the latest vaccine news means for lifting lockdown

What the latest vaccine news means for lifting lockdown

As more good news about vaccine efficacy rolls in, questions are already starting to be asked about what it means for the Prime Minister’s lockdown timetable. Boris Johnson has committed to publishing his ‘roadmap’ out of lockdown - but news from the last few days may be influencing what that roadmap looks like, especially the PM's top priorities of getting children back to school and lifting major social distancing restrictions.

Today’s antibody survey from the Office for National Statistics shows 15.3 per cent prevalence in England, up from 10.7 per cent last month. This time around, the increase is not just due to infections: vaccines are playing their part too. The highest antibody positivity is seen in the over-eighties, who have been prioritised for vaccination. While the latest survey will only reflect the first few weeks of the vaccine rollout (it takes several weeks to build up antibodies), it suggests the next survey may show some extraordinary figures, as millions of jabs start to show their results.


Meanwhile, yesterday’s publication of Oxford University’s pre-print paper on the efficacy of the vaccine provided a significant optimism boost: one jab is estimated to have 76 per cent efficacy for preventing symptomatic infection (6 percentage points higher than the original estimate published for two doses last year). Ross Clark has the details of the trial on Coffee House, which recorded zero hospitalisations for those who received the vaccine. Crucially, the study also found the jab cut transmission of the virus by 67 per cent.

That figure is perhaps even more important than the upward revision of efficacy: it means that the vaccine doesn’t simply protect the person receiving it from severe Covid-19 symptoms, but it also stops two-thirds of people from passing the virus on. This would suggest that even with only the most vulnerable groups eligible for vaccination at the moment, inoculation will significantly reduce the spread of Covid-19. The thought has ministers and officials thrilled: similar to hopes around efficacy, the success of these vaccines is surpassing all expectations.

The extent to which vaccines reduce transmissions is a key factor in how quickly the UK can reopen. Concerns over young people still catching the virus (roughly 65 per cent of Covid-19 positive patients admitted to intensive care are currently under 65) will diminish as the virus struggles to circulate through millions of vaccinated people. Those who did catch it would be easier to care for, with demands on hospital capacity bound to ease as the elderly and vulnerable are inoculated. Modelling from Sage suggests that relaxing restrictions after the top nine priority groups are vaccinated would put daily Covid-19 deaths near zero, so long as vaccines cut transmission by half.


There is a catch, however. Sage’s modelling still assumes September-style restrictions; that is, social distancing rules affecting businesses and people’s personal lives. There are two questions for ministers: first, how quickly can they get the rest of the adult population vaccinated? The second, even more difficult question to answer, is how low do rates of hospitalisations and deaths have to fall before the government will meaningfully reopen society?

Last month, Matt Hancock told The Spectator that once the vulnerable were inoculated, the country would ‘cry freedom’. But tolerance for risk is fundamentally a political decision that this government has not even begun to address. And there’s no doubt that whatever criteria it sets will be challenged by opposition parties. The Covid-19 crisis has always been about trade-offs and difficult decision-making — coming out of this crisis will be no exception.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
British Labour Government Utilizes Counter-Terrorism Tools for Social Media Monitoring Against Legitimate Critics
OpenAI Launches GPT‑5, Its Most Advanced AI Model Yet
Embarrassment in Britain: Homelessness Minister Evicted Tenants and Forced to Resign
President Trump nominated Stephen Miran, his top economic adviser and a critic of the Federal Reserve, to temporarily fill an open Fed seat
The AI-Powered Education Revolution: Market Potential and Transformative Impact
Chikungunya Virus Outbreak in Southern China: Over 7,000 Hospitalized
French wine makers have seen catastrophic damage to vines that were almost ready to be harvested after the worst fires in more than 70 years burned through the south of the country
US Lawmaker Probes Intel CEO’s China Ties Amid National Security Concerns
Brazilian President Lula says he’ll contact the leaders of BRICS states to propose a unified response to U.S. tariffs
Trump Open to Meeting Putin as Soon as Next Week, with Possible Trilateral Summit Including Zelenskiy
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau spark dating rumors, joining high stakes world of celeb-politician romances
US envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow to seek a breakthrough in the Ukraine war ahead of President Trump’s peace deadline
WhatsApp Deletes 6.8 Million Scam Accounts Amid Rising Global Fraud
Nine people have been hospitalized and dozens of salmonella cases have been reported after an outbreak of infections linked to certain brands of pistachios and pistachio-containing products, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada
Karol Nawrocki Inaugurated as Poland’s President, Setting Stage for Clash with Tusk Government
Trump Signals JD Vance as ‘Most Likely’ MAGA Successor for 2028
US Charges Two Chinese Nationals for Illegal Nvidia AI Chip Exports
Texas Residents Face Water Restrictions While AI Data Centers Consume Millions of Gallons
U.S. Tariff Policy Triggers Market Volatility Amid Growing Global Trade Tensions
Tariffs, AI, and the Shifting U.S. Macro Landscape: Navigating a New Economic Regime
Representative Greene Urges H-1B Visa Cuts Amid U.S.-India Trade Tensions
U.S. House Committee Subpoenas Clintons and Senior Officials in Epstein Investigation
Sydney Sweeney Registered as Republican as Controversial American Eagle Ad Sparks Debate
Trump Accuses Major Banks of Politically Motivated Account Denials and Prepares Executive Order
TikTok Removes Huda Kattan Video Over Anti-Israel Conspiracy Claims
Trump Threatens Tariffs on India Over Russian Oil Imports
German Finance Minister Criticizes Trump’s Attacks on Institutions
U.S. Proposes Visa Bond of Up to $15,000 for Some Applicants
U.S. Farmers Increase Lobbying Amid Immigration Crackdown
Elon Musk Receives $23.7 Billion Tesla Stock Award
Texas House Paralyzed After Democrats Walk Out Over Redistricting
Mexican Cartels Complicate Sheinbaum’s U.S. Security Talks
Mark Zuckerberg Declares War on the iPhone
India Rejects U.S. Tariff Threat, Defends Russian Oil Purchases
United States Establishes Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Digital Asset Stockpile
Thousands of Private ChatGPT Conversations Accidentally Indexed by Google
China Tightens Mineral Controls, Curtailing Critical Inputs for Western Defence Contractors
OpenAI’s Bold Bet: Teaching AI to Think, Not Just Chat
Tesla Seeks Shareholder Approval for $29 Billion Compensation Package for Elon Musk
Nvidia is cutting prices on its RTX 50-series graphics cards after sales slowed and inventories piled up
Ghislaine Maxwell Transferred to Minimum-Security Prison Amid Ongoing DOJ Discussions
U.S. Tariffs Surge to Highest Levels in Nearly a Century Under Second Trump Term
Matt Taibbi Slams Media for Role in Russiagate Narrative
Pilots Call for Mental Health Support Without Stigma
All Five Trapped Miners Found Dead After El Teniente Mine Collapse
Ong Beng Seng Pleads Guilty in Corruption Case Linked to Former Singapore Transport Minister
BP’s Largest Oil and Gas Find in 25 Years Uncovered Offshore Brazil
Italy Fines Shein One Million Euros for Misleading Sustainability Claims
JPMorgan and Coinbase Unveil Partnership to Let Chase Cardholders Buy Crypto Directly
Declassified Annex Links Soros‑Affiliated Officials and Clinton Campaign to ‘Russiagate’ Narrative
×