London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Oct 29, 2026

Western officials ‘surprised’ by Ukraine’s rapid gains in northern counteroffensive

Western officials ‘surprised’ by Ukraine’s rapid gains in northern counteroffensive

Kyiv notified top U.S. generals in advance of the plan to launch the two-front attack simultaneously.

Not even the Pentagon expected Ukraine’s blitzkrieg to move so quickly.

Top Western defense officials were informed in advance that Ukraine was planning a two-front counteroffensive to retake territory captured by Russia, but they have been surprised by the blistering pace of Kyiv’s gains in the north, according to four officials with knowledge of the discussions.

Ukrainian forces rolled through lightly manned Russian posts around Kharkiv over the weekend, retaking more than 1,000 square miles around the city and pushing east — in some cases all the way up to the Russian border. Russian forces retreated from two key logistical hubs, the towns of Izyum and Kupiansk, as their ranks were depleted by the simultaneous fight in Kherson in the south.

Kyiv informed top U.S. generals in advance of the plan to launch simultaneous attacks on two fronts, according to a Ukrainian official, but both governments were shocked by the success of the northern counteroffensive.

“Everyone was surprised how the Russians ran,” said the Ukrainian government official on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive operation.



The northern offensive has been conducted by a relatively small force — just a handful of brigades with a few thousand soldiers each, according to a U.S. official and a Western diplomat. Many of the Russian outposts were manned by conscripts and lightly trained and armed troops from occupied areas of Ukraine who were overwhelmed by the firepower and armored vehicles of the approaching forces.

The scale and pace of the Ukrainian advance was fueled by Western arms shipments, particularly precision rocket launchers and artillery shells provided by the U.S. that battered Russian forces in advance of ground movements and targeted their ammunition dumps and command-and-control facilities.

Also key were U.S.-made counter-battery radars that allow the Ukrainians to precisely locate and target Russian artillery pieces within minutes of their firing salvos, and a grab bag of heavily armored vehicles donated by the U.S., U.K., Australia, and others that are allowing the attackers to close with Russian forces quickly, and in relative safety.

The Ukrainian push to retake ground all but wiped out the hard-fought gains made by Kremlin forces this spring, including the city of Izyum, which the Russians seized in April after weeks of bloody fighting.

Ukrainian forces raised the national flag over the battered city this weekend after Russian troops fled in disarray. Ukrainian government officials have estimated that 80 percent of the buildings in the town of 40,000 had been destroyed in the fighting this spring.

Many of the retreating Russian forces have moved over the border into Russia, a senior military official said Monday. There have been reports of Russians abandoning military equipment, which could be indicative of Moscow’s “disorganized command and control,” the official said.

The U.S. has long provided Ukraine with a host of intelligence about the battlefield, from satellite imagery and other sources, which Kyiv uses to make decisions on targeting and troop movements, two U.S. officials said.

“We certainly provide them with information on conditions, but in the end, this is a Ukrainian choice,” a senior Defense Department official told reporters on Monday. “The Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian political leadership made the decisions on how to conduct this counter offensive.”

Western officials are now closely watching how far into the Donbas the northern offensive will get. The Ukrainians may be able to continue their push using new stockpiles of ammunition, vehicles and tanks the Russians left behind as they fled using civilian vehicles and whatever else they could pile in as the rout intensified, the U.S. official said.

“I would look to whether Ukraine can further exploit the momentum they have developed in the Donbas,” said Michael Kofman of the CNA think tank. “Russian forces are likely to try and reconstitute after retreat, and attempt localized counter-attacks.”

Meanwhile, the two sides continue to clash around Kherson in the south, where Ukraine is likely to increase pressure in an attempt to sever Russia’s land corridor from the Donbas to Crimea.

“The current period is best described as a window of opportunity for Ukraine, seizing the initiative to not just take territory, but also deal blows to the Russian military from which they will struggle to recover during the winter,” Kofman said.

The swift gains made by the Ukrainians come at an uncertain moment for Western support. On Monday, the German government again refused to allow countries that have purchased German-made Leopard tanks to transfer them to Kyiv. German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said “no country has delivered Western-built infantry fighting vehicles or main battle tanks so far,” and Berlin “will not take such action unilaterally.”

Germany has come under intense criticism for refusing requests from a number of countries to transfer domestically produced military equipment to Ukraine, including howitzer cannons and armored vehicles.

In Washington, the Biden administration is running up against the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30 and with it the need for Congress to pass a new $13.7 billion Ukraine military and humanitarian aid package.

The Biden administration announced a $675 million drawdown of munitions and armored vehicles last week, and a congressional aide familiar with the issue said there will likely be another package announced as soon as this week for roughly $600 million more of similar equipment pulled by U.S. stockpiles, since DoD officials notified Congress recently that it would use $1.3 billion in drawdown authority in September.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Automotive Manufacturers Urge Government Action as High Energy Costs and Global Supply Chain Disruptions Threaten Production
Metropolitan Police Issue Formal Apology Following Inadvertent Release of Confidential Information During High-Profile Investigation
Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison Unveils Devolved Budget Highlighting Housing and Public Service Adjustments
Energy Regulator Office of Gas and Electricity Markets Prepares to Remove Household Gas Standing Charges Following Treasury Mandate
Treasury Confirms Reversal of Planned Cash Individual Savings Account Allowance Reduction Protecting Twenty Thousand Pound Limit
Office for Budget Responsibility Revisions Predict Moderate United Kingdom Economic Growth with Elevated Inflation Pressures
Chancellor John Healey Delivers First Autumn Budget in Parliament Highlighting Temporary Bank Surcharge and Cost-of-Living Support
Met Office Issues Extended Forecast Highlighting Stable High Pressure Weather Patterns Across the United Kingdom
Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison Outlines Changes to Tax Thresholds and Residential Property Levies in Edinburgh
Financial Markets and Government Bond Yields Remain Stable Following Muted Reaction to Autumn Budget Measures
Defence Committee Chair Tan Dhesi Criticizes Budget for Delaying Critical Defence Spending Decisions to Next Year
International Monetary Fund Forecasts United Kingdom Economic Growth at One Point Three Percent for Year
Office for Budget Responsibility Assesses Fiscal Headroom Reduced to Fifteen Billion Pounds Following Global Energy Shocks
Chancellor John Healey Delivers First Autumn Budget Introducing Household Energy Support and Bank Tax Hikes
Aberdeen City Council Co-Leader Faces Binding Vote Challenge as Local Councillors Launch High Court Legal Battle
Housebuilding Across Scotland Falls to Eleven-Year Low Despite Government Declarations of a Housing Emergency
Former Prime Minister Gordon Brown Organizes National Innovation Summit in Manchester to Boost Regional Competitiveness
UK Government Faces Mounting Criticism Over Lack of Environmental Consultation During Artificial Intelligence Datacentre Expansion Talks
Greggs Announces Closure of Four Major Manufacturing Facilities Across Britain Resulting in Seven Hundred Forty Job Losses
British Retail Consortium Warns That Cumulative Employment and Regulatory Costs Threaten High Street Price Stability
Lloyds Banking Group Chief Executive Charlie Nunn Warns That Increased Bank Taxes Could Deter Long-Term Economic Investment
Ipsos Polling Reveals Seven in Ten Britons Expect Personal Tax Increases Amid Deep Public Economic Pessimism
Chancellor John Healey Delivers First Autumn Budget in Parliament Amid Tight Fiscal Constraints and Slower Growth Forecasts
United Kingdom Finance Monthly Review Highlights Rising Long-Term Borrowing Costs and Persistent Energy Price Pressures Across British Markets
Royal Marines Pioneer Rapid Autonomous Drone Operations During Major High North Exercise Involving NATO Allies
House of Commons Justice Committee Urges Chancellor to Align Prison and Courts Reform Ambitions With Concrete Budgetary Resources
Government Investigates Rapid Artificial Intelligence Datacentre Expansion Strategy Following Scrutiny Over Power Grid Demands and Planning Backlogs
His Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary Warns Third-Party Supplier Breaches Threaten United Kingdom Police and Fire Service Data
Number of British Businesses in Financial Distress Reaches Highest Level in Two Decades Ahead of Fiscal Announcement
Chancellor John Healey Prepares Autumn Budget Amid Intense Market Scrutiny Over Fiscal Headroom and Spending Pressures
Education or Indoctrination? The Growing Debate Over Religious Participation in British Schools
Germany's Vanishing Shopfronts: The Silent Collapse of the Businesses That Built Its Cities
Northern Ireland Executive Reaches Agreement on Public Transport Modernization and Cross-Border Rail Infrastructure Funding
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero Approves New North Sea Carbon Capture and Storage Industrial Clusters
Office for National Statistics Reports Stabilization in Private Rental Growth Across Major English and Welsh Regional Cities
United Kingdom Automotive Manufacturing Output Rises Moderately as Electric Vehicle Assembly Lines Expand in the Midlands
Competition and Markets Authority Launches Formal Inquiry Into Cloud Computing Infrastructure and Artificial Intelligence Partnerships
Scottish Government Finalizes Emergency Budget Adjustments Following Multi-Year Public Sector Funding Shortfalls
National Health Service England Announces Major Emergency Care Overhaul to Alleviate Severe Winter Capacity Pressures
Chancellor Rachel Reeves Prepares Autumn Budget Amid Intensifying Scrutiny Over Public Spending and Fiscal Rules
Bank of England Signals Cautious Approach to Further Interest Rate Cuts as Persistent Wage Growth and Inflation Pressures Remain
Transport for London Unveils Expanded Zero-Emission Bus Fleet to Meet Capital Air Quality Targets
Higher Education Institutions Face Deepening Financial Strain Amid Declining International Student Enrolment
Automotive Industry Leaders Criticize Government Tax Policies and Urge Action on Retail Consumer Confidence
Environment Agency Issues Flood Alerts Across Scottish and English Waterways Following Heavy Rainfall
Independent Audit Highlights Persistent Security Vulnerabilities Across Legacy Government Digital Portals
Northern Ireland Political Leaders Clash Over Westminster Funding Allocations Ahead of Autumn Budget
Ethnic Minorities in England Face Significant Disparities in Routine Breast Cancer Diagnosis Rates
National Police Chiefs Report Alarming Surge in Domestic Abuse Cases Fuelled by Expanding Illegal Cocaine Market
Government Announces Two Hundred and Twenty Million Pound Pothole Funding Boost for Local Highway Authorities
×