London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Sep 20, 2026

War in Ukraine: Russian invasion fuels Finnish support for Nato

War in Ukraine: Russian invasion fuels Finnish support for Nato

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent shivers of fear through many of its neighbours - from the Baltic states to Moldova.

Finland ought theoretically to be safe, since it has historically been neutral and gave Stalin's Soviet army a hard time when he invaded the country in 1939.

There has never been much support here to join the Nato military alliance. But when the spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry recently warned Finland and Sweden explicitly that any move towards Nato could have military consequences, people in both countries were deeply shocked.

Since then, Russian warplanes have blatantly intruded into Swedish airspace.

If being neutral is not sufficient to guard against Russia, people here are saying that maybe joining Nato will give the two countries the protection they need.

This represents a major change of mood. In Finland, particularly, relations with Russia were thought to be pretty good.

The Ukraine invasion has changed everything.

A few days before the Russian troops moved in, Aleksi Salonen and Sampo Muhonen, a couple of geeks - their own description of themselves - were sitting in a Helsinki flat gaming. During a pause, they started talking about the growing threat from Russia, and agreed that it would be safer for Finland to apply for Nato membership.

They mentioned the idea to three friends online, and between them the five cooked up a plan to collect signatures for a petition to the Finnish parliament.

In order to launch a debate by MPs, a proposal has to have 50,000 signatures. Within 10 days they had reached 70,000.

They had touched a nerve in the Finnish population, and now the matter will be put to the government. The latest opinion polls indicate that a majority of people support the idea.

Finland is a cautious country, and its government is particularly so. When I asked Defence Minister Antti Kaikkonen for his views, he was careful not to give an answer. He acknowledged the situation was difficult, but said that joining Nato was something that required very careful consideration.

Perhaps the Finnish government wants to see what happens in Ukraine before it makes up its mind. Clearly the Russians won't invade another country when their hands are full with the fighting in Ukraine.

Last week, Finnish President Sauli Niinisto discussed strengthening security ties with US President Joe Biden


Viewed from Finland, there are some striking similarities between the attack on Ukraine and the invasion of Finland in 1939 - the Winter War, as it's known.

Joseph Stalin, full of self-confidence, sent his army into Finland only to find that its resistance was far greater than his generals had assured him. The Finns staged a largely guerrilla war against an army which was huge, but whose morale had been seriously damaged by the treason trials of a year or so earlier, in which the majority of the most senior figures were purged and executed.

The Winter War dragged on for months before negotiations finally began and an agreement was reached. Russia took some territory from Finland, but the Finns kept their independence - and have done so ever since.

The invasion of Ukraine has similarly been mismanaged. The logistical side was botched from the start, with too little fuel, food and water supplied to the troops - many of whom had been assured they were only carrying out an exercise.

Western analysts say even maps were in short supply, with tank drivers often having to stop to get directions. This was not by any means a Blitzkrieg, and the prerequisite for any modern war - the destruction of the enemy's communications - simply never happened.

None of this means that President Vladimir Putin won't win in the end.

He has already assured France's President Macron that he will go on until he takes the whole of Ukraine. The danger is that if he cannot do it with his conventional forces, the temptation will be strong to use his tactical nuclear weapons to force Ukraine to surrender.

Russian nuclear theory seems to regard this as an acceptable risk; Western experts are much more worried by the possibilities. There can be no certainties if that threshold is crossed.

Russia claims to have invaded Ukraine because it wanted to save the Ukrainian people from neo-fascism. What President Putin really seems to want to ensure - apart from avenging what he sees as Ukraine's treachery in breaking away from Russia - is that there is no question of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky joining Nato.

In fact, that genuinely doesn't seem to have been a possibility within the foreseeable future.

But there is a real irony in the fact that the war in Ukraine now seems to be giving Finland - and perhaps Sweden - real cause for considering whether they should join the Western military alliance.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Addison Lee Founder Loses £20 Million UK Tax Tribunal Case
BrewDog Creditors Face Losses on About £190 Million of Debt
Harrods Seeks to Recover Abuse Compensation Costs From Mohamed Al Fayed’s Estate
Ed Davey Targets Reform UK as Liberal Democrat Conference Opens
Great Britain Retail Sales Rise 0.5% in August
NHS England Approves Life-Extending Treatment for Incurable Breast Cancer
Proposals to Limit NHS ADHD Diagnoses Draw Criticism From Patient Groups
Resolution Foundation Warns of Housing Cost Crunch for Low-Income UK Families
BBC Cash Reserves Fall to Decade Low as Annual Deficit Reaches £121 Million
Millisecond Software Error Triggered Major UK Air Traffic Control Disruption
Twenty Women Underwent Unnecessary Mastectomies During NHS Cancer Care
Sensitive UK Police Data Found Vulnerable to Access by Foreign Actors
British Steel Faces Renewed Pressure for a Long-Term Financial Plan
MPs Urge Government to End Thames Water Restructuring Talks With U.S. Hedge Funds
Andy Burnham Warns of Difficult UK Budget Choices as Inflation Returns to 3.1%
England Tightens School Food Standards With Restrictions on Deep-Fried and High-Sugar Foods
Oxfordshire Village Votes Symbolically to Leave UK Over Proposed Asylum Centre
Michael Marra Elected Leader of Scottish Labour
BBC Cash Reserves Fall Sharply as Financial Pressures Mount
George Osborne Calls for UK to Rejoin EU Customs Union
UK Explores Joining Canada-Led Global Defence Bank
Thirlwall Inquiry Highlights Management Failures Surrounding Lucy Letby Crimes
Parliamentary Committee Calls for New UK Law to Address AI Risks to Human Rights
UK Considers Giving Regional Mayors Greater Oversight of Water Companies
UK Opposition Presses Burnham for Stronger Response to Russian Security Threats
Reform UK Faces Scrutiny Over £72 Million in Donations as Political Finance Rules Tighten
Millisecond Software Failure Behind UK Air-Traffic Outage That Cancelled More Than 2,000 Flights
Bank of England Holds Interest Rate at 3.75% as Energy Prices Complicate Inflation Outlook
Burnham Warns of Difficult Choices in October Budget as UK Inflation Rises to 3.1%
Addison Lee Founder Loses £20.5 Million Non-Domicile Tax Case
BrewDog Creditors Face Heavy Losses After Collapse
Thirteenth Metropolitan Police Officer Dismissed Over Charing Cross Conduct
Oxfordshire Village Votes Symbolically to Leave UK Over Asylum Accommodation Plan
NHS Approves Life-Extending Treatment for Women With Incurable Breast Cancer
Software Defect Blamed for Major UK Air Traffic Disruption
Twenty Women Underwent Unnecessary Mastectomies at County Durham NHS Trust
British Steel Costs Taxpayers £1.3 Million a Day as MPs Demand Long-Term Plan
UK Parliament Advances Sovereign Grant Reform Setting Royal Funding at £99.9 Million
King Charles Urges Human-Centred Approach to Artificial Intelligence at Scotland Summit
House of Lords Begins Scrutiny of Voting-Age and Political Finance Reforms
UK Labour Market Shows Growing Divide Between Younger and Older Workers
Nearly Seven in 10 UK Small Businesses Delay or Cancel Growth Plans as Costs Rise
Andy Burnham Reaffirms UK Net-Zero Target Amid North Sea Energy Debate
UK Parliament Demands Credible Financial and Decarbonisation Plan for British Steel
MPs Urge Government to Reject Thames Water Rescue Deal and Prepare Special Administration
Bank of England Holds Rate at 3.75% as Energy Shock Raises Inflation Risks
TUC Calls for Social Energy Tariff Funded by Higher Taxes on Bank Profits
UK Parliament Enters Conference Recess After Advancing Sovereign Grant Legislation
King Charles Hosts Artificial Intelligence Leaders at Dumfries House Summit
Nearly Seven in Ten UK Small Businesses Delay or Cancel Growth Plans as Costs Rise
×