London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Oct 05, 2026

Ukraine invasion: Why the conflict with Russia is leading to higher prices in the UK - and what can be done about it

Ukraine invasion: Why the conflict with Russia is leading to higher prices in the UK - and what can be done about it

There are few conflicts since the world wars that have had the potential to so directly impact the cost of living in Britain.

This terrible war has brought into sharp focus exactly what is meant by the term "energy security".

In short, it's not just about supply, but supply that's affordable - something that's become increasingly strained in the past week.

There are few conflicts since the world wars that have had the potential to so directly impact the cost of living in Britain.

Howard Taylor says the costs of going to work have never been anywhere near as high as they are now


The fact of the matter is, there is a price to be paid here for a faraway conflict, and it's being borne in the homes, on the streets and behind the wheels of this country.

Higher energy bills, higher prices at the pump, higher pressure on us all.

Howard Taylor is a cab driver and has been for the past 35 years. For the first time in all those years he's started thinking about whether there's a line beyond which continuing doesn't make financial sense for him anymore.

"The costs of going to work have never been anywhere near as high as they are now," he says, "and the energy bills are frightening."

"Life is sort of running from one thing to the other and trying to keep costs down on all of them, and struggling."

The forces squeezing him and so many others like him are the soaring prices of oil and gas.

Cuadrilla, the company that undertook fracking in the UK, says the current crisis is a major failing of energy policy and planning


They have both skyrocketed since the invasion, wholesale gas up another 25% just on Tuesday, crude oil at around $106 dollars a barrel.

The UK is beholden to these prices, despite the fact the country doesn't actually buy much oil and gas from Russia directly.

Only about 6% of its oil and 4% of gas comes from Russia. Most of the UK's gas comes from either the North Sea or Norway.

But while Britain only buys a bit, Europe buys a lot - around 40% of its gas supply.

And its centrality to the continent means that any uncertainty or doubt over Russian supply pushes prices right up across the whole market.

The UK's high reliance on gas for energy means these are high prices it has no choice but to pay.

Ecotricity wind farm


The impact will be most keenly felt by households in the form of energy bills.

The Ofgem price cap will protect people to a point, but it is already going up by a record-breaking 54% in April - and the average household's bill will rise to £2,000 a year.

Experts say if the recent rises in gas costs are sustained the price cap will inevitably have to go up again in October, pushing bills to as much as £3,000 a year.

At Brineflow, a leading UK manufacturer of liquid fertiliser, the scale of this business is apparent.


But it will affect people indirectly too, in the price or even availability of food.

There are multiple ways in which this will happen, but a key one is the price of fertiliser.

At Brineflow, a leading UK manufacturer of liquid fertiliser, the scale of this business is apparent.

Tens of thousands of tonnes of the stuff is kept in mammoth tanks, ready for distribution to farms across the country.

But the price of importing it from Europe, where production relies on Russian gas, is crippling. They're building a whole new facility in Sunderland to be more open to global deliveries.

John Fuller says 'we're on the path to the £3 loaf of bread, the £7 pint'


"Prices for nitrogen fertilisers have gone up by 300% or 400% in the last year, and that was without the war," explains John Fuller, Brineflow's chairman.

"So although we may be seen as a small part of the economy, because we're at the start of the food chain, what we pay passes on to farmers and in turn to consumers, it's going to hit everybody in the pocket.

"It means that we're on the path to the £3 loaf of bread, the £7 pint."

So, an already pressing question has now become urgent: how do we reduce our reliance on gas and do it quickly?

Fawley Oil Refinery


Some say the answer lies underground on home soil. Not moving away from gas, but extracting our own - fracking for it in the North of England.

There are vast quantities of shale gas there, but the controversial technology to extract it was banned in the UK in 2019 for safety reasons. It is still undertaken at scale in the US.

Cuadrilla, the company that undertook fracking in the UK says the current crisis is a major failing of energy policy and planning. But it is worth remembering it would sell any gas it fracked on the open market, likely at market prices.

It might not therefore solve the price problem.

But the chief executive rejects this.

"We've got to be able to do it more cheaply than taking shale gas from the United States, putting it on a boat sailing across the Atlantic," says Francis Egan.

"You know, people are saying well, that won't make a difference because it doesn't affect prices tomorrow. But the reason we're in this mess is because we haven't thought about this 10 years ago, which frankly, other countries have been."

The only true shield to all this is alternative energy sources; nuclear, solar or wind. But all are too fledgling to cover the entirety of the demand in this country and scaling up to the amount needed will take years and huge amounts of investment.

UK renewable capacity is up 500% since 2010, but it's still not enough.

The government supports the dual tactic of continuing to back North Sea gas for energy security, while investing in renewables.

But experts say there is another way to reduce our reliance on volatile markets more quickly.

"The immediate step that we can take to reduce our gas demand is by insulating our homes" explains Jess Ralston, an energy analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.

"It's so important that we start talking about insulation, you can go out to B&Q today and get some loft installation, roll it out, and you can save, you know, a hundred pounds or so on your annual bills overnight," he says.

These are complex challenges and ones that some say we haven't planned for adequately enough.

For now, if Russia turned off the taps we'd still be able to turn on the lights.

But at what cost?

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
BT Accused of Pressuring Vulnerable Customers During Digital Landline Shift
British Carmakers Warn of Growing Pressure From EU-China Tariff Dispute
Green Party of England and Wales Adopts Motion Defining Zionism as Racism
Medical Charity Threatens NHS Legal Action Over Two-Year Autism and ADHD Assessment Waits
British Transport Police Report Record Rise in Violence on Railways
Glasgow Council Workers Face Pay Cuts Under Fire-and-Rehire Plan
British Medical Groups Press Prime Minister Andy Burnham to Cancel £330 Million Palantir NHS Contract
UK Faces Record Bluetongue Outbreak Across Livestock Farms
UK Schools Report Thousands of Child-on-Child Sexual Offences
High Court Overturns Ban Blocking Gaza Families From Reuniting With Relatives in UK
G7 Authorizes Emergency Fuel Release as UK Diesel Prices Hit £2 a Litre
France and Italy Draw 1-1 in Nations League Match
Pope Leo XIV and Prince Albert II of Monaco Meet in Metz
SNCF Expands Low-Cost Ouigo High-Speed Service Between Lyon and Bordeaux
Paris Expands Dedicated Cargo Bike Routes for Urban Deliveries
French Film Industry Pushes for Tighter Streaming Investment Rules
Marseille Court Hands Down Prison Terms in Public Procurement Corruption Case
LVMH and Kering Rely on US Demand as Chinese Luxury Spending Slows
Toulouse Aerospace Sector Launches €80 Million Modernization Fund
Javier Milei Courts French Investment in LNG and Lithium
Mistral AI Launches Sovereign Model for European Public Services
French Competition Authority Fines Retailers €40 Million Over Misleading Promotions
France Records Exceptional Electricity Exports as Nuclear Output Recovers
Dassault Aviation Expands Rafale Assembly Capacity at Mérignac
Sanofi Invests €1 Billion in New Biologics Production Hub Near Lyon
France Protests Germany’s Extension of Border Controls Into 2027
French Public-Sector and Transport Unions Threaten National Strike
France Deploys Riot Police After Violence in Lyon Suburbs
French Anti-Terrorism Prosecutors Investigate Radicalized Flydubai Co-Pilot
France’s Defense Budget Surpasses NATO’s 2% of GDP Target
French Government Faces No-Confidence Threat Over Budget
France and G7 Release 100 Million Barrels From Strategic Oil Reserves
France Convenes Emergency Defense Council Over Threats to Commercial Shipping
France and Germany Coordinate Military Response After Russian Strikes on Kyiv Infrastructure
UK Police Release Six Iranian Nationals on Bail After RAF Fairford Security Alert
UK Business Confidence Falls as Energy Costs and Tax Uncertainty Rise
Cornwall Insight Warns UK Energy Bills Could Rise 16% in January
UK Introduces Zero VAT on Household Electricity Bills
UK 30-Year Gilt Yield Hits 6% as Bond Market Pressures Intensify
UK Introduces Stricter Subcontractor Checks and Expanded Trade Union Access
Green Party Proposes Three-Year Emergency Freeze on Private Rent Increases
UK Treasury Committee Seeks Tax Clarification Over Manchester City Investigation
Royal Marines Deploy to Faroe Islands for Northern European Security Exercise
UK Business Confidence Weakens as High Costs Delay Investment
UK GDP Growth Revised Up to 0.5% in Second Quarter
Bank of England Warns of Financial Stability Risks From Autonomous AI
UK Expands Early Prisoner Release Scheme to Ease Overcrowding
UK Records Worst Bluetongue Outbreak on Record Across Livestock Farms
UK Government Faces Shrinking Fiscal Headroom Ahead of October 28 Budget
UK 30-Year Gilt Yield Reaches 6% as Energy Shock Drives Borrowing Costs Higher
×