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Thursday, Jan 22, 2026

UK Government Borrowing Surprises with £6.6bn Shortfall vs Forecast

The UK government's borrowing for the last financial year was higher than anticipated, reaching £120.7bn, according to the Office for National Statistics.
This figure is lower than the previous year but £6.6bn more than forecasted.

Analysts suggest that this unexpected increase in borrowing could limit the scope for additional pre-election tax cuts.

The Resolution Foundation's senior economist, Cara Pacitti, stated that there is no room for additional spending or tax cuts in the upcoming pre-election Budget due to existing borrowing projections.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasted a £114.1bn borrowing figure for the year.

Speculation exists about the government's plans to cut taxes again before the general election, which must be held by the end of January 2025.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt previously reduced National Insurance by 2p in the pound in the spring Budget, following a similar cut announced in the Autumn Statement of the previous year.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) reported that each tax cut made by the government would cost approximately £10bn.

Despite the larger-than-anticipated borrowing, economist Rob Wood of Pantheon Macroeconomics predicted that the chancellor might still reduce taxes again before an election.

However, Wood warned that the next government would face a challenging decision between increasing taxes to fund public services or maintaining the recent tax cuts.

He believed that whichever government took office would ultimately implement tax increases to restore fiscal balance.
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