Sweden's NATO Membership Bid Stalls Amid Turkey's Standoff with the US

Sweden's bid for NATO membership is stalled as Turkey withholds approval amid tensions with the United States.

In July, Sweden's Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson believed he had Turkish President Erdogan's support for NATO entry, following assurances at a NATO summit. However, the expected quick ratification has not materialized, and Turkey has not scheduled it for parliamentary consideration.

The deadlock hinges on Erdogan's interactions with President Biden. The U.S. has agreed to sell F-16 jets to Turkey, but the deal awaits Congressional approval. Mistrust between the NATO partners perpetuates the deadlock, leaving both countries hesitant to make the first move.

Erdogan demands that the U.S. Congress sanction the jet sale before ratifying Sweden's NATO entry, wanting the votes to occur simultaneously. Despite this, Congressional opposition remains, partly due to Erdogan's tensions with Greece.

Efforts to improve Greek-Turkish relations and ease Congressional resistance include a recent Erdogan-Mitsotakis summit. Yet, Erdogan's support for Hamas after clashes with Israel has further complicated prospects for Congressional support.

Turkey's delay in ratifying Sweden's membership could be strategic, providing Erdogan with leverage over Washington and allies eager for Swedish NATO integration.

With no Congressional vote on the horizon for the arms sale and no Turkish parliamentary agenda for Sweden's membership, the deadlock persists. Observers speculate that Turkey may be playing a long game, anticipating a potential Trump return in the next U.S. elections, given Erdogan's favorable past dealings with him.