Rishi Sunak's leadership is at stake in the critical Rwanda vote

Efforts to lobby MPs are intensifying, with unprecedented outreach efforts by the government since Sunak took office. MPs are being closely monitored and canvassed to ensure their presence and intentions for the upcoming vote.

Around 20 MPs have been lured to 10 Downing Street for morning discussions over breakfast. Despite the possibility of defeat, government officials insist the vote will proceed, as cancelling it would signal a crippling blow to Sunak's authority. However, insiders are confident the government's majority, albeit narrow with some expected Conservative dissent, will hold.

A Conservative source suggests over 20 party members may defy the government. This potential rebellion means every vote is critical to the outcome. The government is also attempting to secure support from Northern Ireland's DUP, who are assessing their strategic advantage.

Additionally, a parliamentary committee has foregone a Caribbean trip because party whips denied them leave, underscoring the vote's importance.

With risks looming, the fate of the Rwanda policy and Sunak's political power are both hanging in the balance.