London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Sunday, Jul 12, 2026

Recession risk looms large over euro zone, ECB policymaker says

Recession risk looms large over euro zone, ECB policymaker says

The likelihood of a euro zone recession is rising but the European Central Bank needs to keep raising interest rates as inflation remains high and projections may even need to be raised, Lithuanian policymaker Gediminas Simkus said on Friday.
The ECB on Thursday doubled its deposit rate to 1.5% to fight inflation which is now five times its 2% target, and said that further policy tightening is necessary to prevent rapid price growth from getting entrenched.

The ECB sees inflation falling back to 5.5% in 2023 but Simkus said models are struggling to calculate the effects of one-off shocks so they have been underestimating price pressures.

"It seems they will be revised upwards again, especially for next year," said Simkus, who sits on the rate-setting Governing Council.

Simkus also suggested that growth forecasts may need to be cut to account for a recession, as the bloc struggles with sky high energy costs.

"The likelihood that the euro zone enters a technical recession has grown," Simkus said.

With inflation far too high, the ECB said it would start talks in December on how it could wind down 3.3 trillion euros ($3.28 trillion) worth of bonds, mostly government debt, held in its Asset Purchase Programme.

While ECB chief Christine Lagarde did not provide any further guidance on what the upcoming discussion should focus on, Simkus said a start date should be a key item on the agenda.

"I think this is what the discussion should be about: possible start date, possible amounts, and how this would be done," Simkus said.

The ECB currently reinvests all cash from bonds maturing in the scheme and the expectation is that instead of outright bond sales, the ECB would wind down the debt pile by not reinvesting all funds.

($1 = 1.0048 euros)
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Government Creates Emergency Support Scheme for Financially Struggling Universities
United Kingdom Replaces Traditional Farm Subsidies With Payments Linked to Environmental Performance
National Grid Reports First Week of Electricity Generation Without Fossil Fuels
United Kingdom Financial Regulator Introduces Tougher Capital Rules for Cryptocurrency Exchanges
Belfast Harbour Expands Operations to Attract Investment Through United Kingdom and European Union Market Access
Scottish Government Threatens Legal Challenge Over Westminster Cuts to North Sea Transition Funding
United Kingdom Accelerates Trans-Pennine High-Speed Rail Project Linking Northern Cities
United Kingdom Secures Ten Billion Pound Investment for Cambridge Quantum Computing Campus
Port Talbot Steelworks Wins Support for Green Hydrogen Transition and Protection of Industrial Jobs
United Kingdom Sends Royal Navy Carrier Strike Group to Indo-Pacific as Regional Security Focus Expands
National Health Service Expands Artificial Intelligence Diagnostics Across England to Reduce Screening Backlogs
United Kingdom Launches Fifty Billion Pound Infrastructure Fund to Accelerate Housing and Construction
UK Medical Chiefs Update Health Guidance to Promote Everyday Physical Activity
Office of Communications Keeps Wikipedia Under Review Under UK Online Safety Rules
UK Defence Ministry Expands Deep-Strike Capability Through Precision Missile Programme
Russell Group Universities Warn Funding Cuts Could Damage NHS Workforce Training
UK Parliament Calls for National Emergency Broadcast as Heatwave Conditions Intensify
UK and Netherlands Strengthen Naval Cooperation With New Amphibious Defence Partnership
UK Defence Ministry Joins International Missile Programme With One Hundred and Ninety Million Pound Investment
Bank of England Warns Middle East Conflict and AI Risks Could Pressure UK Economy
UK Government Introduces New Rules to Limit Foreign Influence in Political Donations
UK and France Prepare Naval Mission to Protect Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz
United States Pressures UK to Increase Defence Spending at NATO Summit
Bank of England Warns Artificial Intelligence Investment Boom Could Create Financial Stability Risks
Bank of England Begins Direct Oversight of Critical Technology Providers Supporting UK Finance
Andy Burnham Set to Become UK Prime Minister After Labour Leadership Race Clears Path to Downing Street
Scottish Fishing Industry Calls for Emergency Support Amid Rising Costs
UK Supports Stronger European Response to Russian Actions in Ukraine
Devon and Cornwall Police Release Suspect in Ann Widdecombe Murder Investigation
Scottish MPs Demand More Government Support for Fishing Industry
UK Aviation Sector Faces New Rules as Parliament Reviews Passenger Protection Reforms
King’s College London Disciplines Students Over Pro-Palestine Campus Protests
Ministry of Defence Expands Military Capabilities Through New Precision Strike Investment
United Kingdom Condemns Russian Treatment of Ukrainian Children at International Security Forum
House of Lords Reviews Civil Aviation Bill to Strengthen Passenger Rights and UK Aviation Competitiveness
UK Aerospace and Defence Industries Contribute Nearly Forty-Seven Billion Pounds to Economy
UK Government Advances Consultation on Possible Social Media Ban for Children Under Sixteen
United Kingdom Ratifies Global High Seas Treaty to Protect Marine Biodiversity
United Kingdom Joins United States Precision Strike Missile Programme With One Hundred Ninety Million Pound Investment
UK Senior NHS Doctors Vote for Further Strike Action Over Pay and Contract Disputes
BBC Leadership Resigns After Donald Trump Launches Ten Billion Dollar Defamation Lawsuit
UK Fiscal Watchdog Warns Andy Burnham Government Faces One Hundred Billion Pound Budget Challenge
The AI Invoice Shock: Layoffs Didn't Save Managers Money — They Cost Them More
Concern: Sexually Transmitted Bacterium Among Men Develops Antibiotic Resistance
Following Massive Investor Demand: SK Hynix Raises 26.5 Billion Dollars on Nasdaq
Passenger Partially Pulled Out of Ryanair Jet After Cabin Window Fails Mid-Flight
After Four Years, and Under a Heavy Veil of Secrecy: King Charles Meets His Grandchildren, Harry and Meghan's Children
Cross-Party MPs Call for National Climate Emergency Broadcast
Bayeux Tapestry Arrives in the United Kingdom for Landmark Exhibition
United Kingdom Launches Modern Slavery Prevention Programme in Vietnam
×