London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Sep 14, 2026

Recession risk looms large over euro zone, ECB policymaker says

Recession risk looms large over euro zone, ECB policymaker says

The likelihood of a euro zone recession is rising but the European Central Bank needs to keep raising interest rates as inflation remains high and projections may even need to be raised, Lithuanian policymaker Gediminas Simkus said on Friday.
The ECB on Thursday doubled its deposit rate to 1.5% to fight inflation which is now five times its 2% target, and said that further policy tightening is necessary to prevent rapid price growth from getting entrenched.

The ECB sees inflation falling back to 5.5% in 2023 but Simkus said models are struggling to calculate the effects of one-off shocks so they have been underestimating price pressures.

"It seems they will be revised upwards again, especially for next year," said Simkus, who sits on the rate-setting Governing Council.

Simkus also suggested that growth forecasts may need to be cut to account for a recession, as the bloc struggles with sky high energy costs.

"The likelihood that the euro zone enters a technical recession has grown," Simkus said.

With inflation far too high, the ECB said it would start talks in December on how it could wind down 3.3 trillion euros ($3.28 trillion) worth of bonds, mostly government debt, held in its Asset Purchase Programme.

While ECB chief Christine Lagarde did not provide any further guidance on what the upcoming discussion should focus on, Simkus said a start date should be a key item on the agenda.

"I think this is what the discussion should be about: possible start date, possible amounts, and how this would be done," Simkus said.

The ECB currently reinvests all cash from bonds maturing in the scheme and the expectation is that instead of outright bond sales, the ECB would wind down the debt pile by not reinvesting all funds.

($1 = 1.0048 euros)
Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Advertising Industry Warns Wider Junk Food Rules Could Put £1 Billion in Media Spending at Risk
Cornwall Opens Devolution Talks With UK Government Over Transport and Local Services
UK Parliament Considers Sovereign Grant Reform Setting Royal Funding at £99.9 Million
Trades Union Congress Calls for Income-Based Energy Tariff Funded by Higher Bank Levy
UK Prime Minister Rejects Second Scottish Independence Referendum
House of Lords Begins Scrutiny of Bill to Lower UK Voting Age to 16
Anthropic Says Claude Was Exploited in Weapons-Related and State-Linked Cyber Activity
Institute of Directors Urges UK Government to Avoid Business Tax Increases in Autumn Budget
Rising Gilt Yields Cut UK Fiscal Headroom to About £13 Billion Ahead of Budget
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Services and Technology Activity Strengthen
UK Government Promises Clearer Student Loan Guidance After Repayment Backlash
Charities Warn Unpaid Carers May Die Before Receiving Government Compensation
Dover Unrest Prompts Review of UK Counter-Extremism Strategy
Celtic Summit Leaders Reassert Right to Pursue Independence From UK
NHS Records Busiest Summer on Record Amid Severe Heatwaves
Harrods Faces Potential £150 Million Compensation Bill Over Al Fayed Abuse Claims
UK Parliament Opens Debate on Landmark Assisted Dying Legislation
Metropolitan Police Investigate Reform UK Over Alleged Foreign Electoral Donations
UK Economy Expands 0.4% in July as AI Investment Boosts Activity
Bank of England Signals Caution on Rates as Inflation Pressures Persist
Tesco Alerts Police After Scammers Use Its Branding in AI-Generated Fraud
Lindy Cameron Appointed First Female Permanent Under-Secretary at UK Foreign Office
UK Government to Rewrite Student Loan Guidance After Mis-Selling Criticism
Welsh First Minister Warns Andy Burnham Government to Respect Devolution
Trump’s Falkland Islands Remarks Trigger New Diplomatic Tension With Britain
Reform UK Receives Record £72 Million Donation From Cryptocurrency Billionaires
UK Bans Imports From Israeli West Bank Settlements and Sanctions Supporting Institutions
Bayeux Tapestry Draws Large Crowds at British Museum
Cuts to International Aid Raise Concerns Over Fragile Overseas Health Systems
UK Airlines and Logistics Operators Adjust Capacity as Fuel Costs Rise
UK Mortgage Arrears Edge Lower in Second Quarter
UK Government Advances New Devolution Offers for English Councils
UK Parliament Begins Debate on NHS Governance and Single Patient Record Reforms
Andy Burnham Launches Number 10 North Devolution Initiative
UK Parliament Rejects Assisted Dying Bill for Terminally Ill Adults
UK Bans Goods From Israeli Settlements in the Occupied West Bank
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as Technology Services Strengthen
Metropolitan Police Continue Investigation Into Reform UK Political Financing
Chinese Crypto Entrepreneur Leon Li Identified as Seller of £190 Million London Mansion
Trades Union Congress Proposes Social Energy Tariff Funded by Higher Bank Surcharge
British Chambers of Commerce Calls for State Pension Triple Lock to Be Scrapped
Anthropic Says Claude Helped Disrupt Biological Weapons and Cyber Espionage Threats
UK Imposes Sanctions Over Israeli Settlements and West Bank Violence
UK Reimposes Sectoral Sanctions on Iran’s Aviation, Shipping and Energy Networks
UK Economy Grows 0.4% in July as AI and Programming Services Lift Activity
UK House of Commons Rejects Assisted Dying Bill by 286 Votes to 270
UK Reviews Nationwide Emergency Alert Tests After Systems Meet Reliability Targets
UK Seeks Faster Rail Links Across Northern Industrial Corridors
British Business Bank Allocates £150 Million for High-Growth Companies in Northern England
BBC Warns Staff Strikes Are Possible Amid Pay Dispute and £500 Million Savings Drive
×