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Sunday, Feb 09, 2025

Europe Prepares for Possible Trade War as Trump Aims at EU Exports

Europe Prepares for Possible Trade War as Trump Aims at EU Exports

The U.S. president warns of imposing tariffs on imports from Europe, jeopardizing vital industries and economies.
U.S. President Donald Trump has heightened trade tensions with the European Union, labeling the bloc an 'atrocity' due to its trade surplus with the United States and pledging to implement tariffs on EU imports.

This announcement follows the establishment of a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods and has prompted European leaders to seek a response.

The European Commission has vowed 'firm' retaliation, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has taken a diplomatic stance, suggesting negotiations to address trade conflicts.

However, given the EU's significant dependence on exports to the U.S., any new tariffs could have a considerable effect on European industries and economies.

The U.S. and the EU enjoy a strong trade partnership, with total trade in goods and services surpassing 1.5 trillion euros in 2023. Although the U.S. reported a trade deficit of 157 billion euros with the EU that year, this is largely countered by a 109 billion euro surplus in services, which includes finance, intellectual property, and professional services.

The most vulnerable sectors to potential U.S. tariffs are automotive, machinery, and pharmaceuticals.

In 2023, the EU exported over 90 billion euros worth of vehicles to the U.S., while only importing 14 billion euros in return.

Trump has previously criticized this disparity and threatened auto tariffs during his first term.

Germany, Italy, and Ireland are the most vulnerable to potential trade restrictions, as they made up more than 50 percent of the EU’s exports to the U.S. last year.

The EU's counteractions would be complicated due to its dependency on American liquefied natural gas (LNG).

As the EU seeks to reduce its reliance on Russian energy imports, the U.S. has become its largest LNG supplier.

Any retaliatory measures against the U.S. could threaten energy supplies.

Possible responses from the EU might include negotiating increased purchases of American energy and defense products or implementing retaliatory tariffs, a strategy previously employed during Trump’s administration.

However, research indicates that such actions could ultimately harm European industries as much as they would U.S. ones.

As tensions escalate, European leaders are considering their options as Trump moves forward with his trade agenda, which could redefine transatlantic economic relations in the coming years.
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