NHS Waiting Times: Challenges in Achieving Keir Starmer's 18-Week Pledge

Institute for Fiscal Studies warns that targets for hospital care may not be met by the next election.

Keir Starmer, the leader of the UK Labour Party and a prominent figure in the ongoing debate over healthcare, faces significant challenges in fulfilling his pledge to restore the maximum waiting time of 18 weeks for planned hospital care before the next general election.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), a key economic thinktank, has addressed the feasibility of this target, indicating that it is "more likely than not" that Starmer will not realize this ambition due to the pressures of increasing demand on the National Health Service (NHS).

Starmer has committed to reinstating the 18-week access standard in England, which mandates that 92% of patients should be seen within this timeframe, as part of six milestones he aims to achieve by 2029. However, the IFS highlights that the NHS has not met this longstanding performance target since September 2015, raising concerns among health experts about the likelihood of restoring it by the targeted date.

As of January, data shows that approximately 6.25 million individuals were awaiting about 7.43 million elective procedures or appointments within the NHS, demonstrating the considerable backlog in care that needs addressing.

These delays, particularly concerning surgery, cancer care, and diagnostics, have emerged as critical issues for the public, especially given that only 59% of patients on the referral-to-treatment waiting list were seen within 18 weeks in December, significantly lower than the 92% target.

Olly Harvey-Rich, a research economist at the IFS and co-author of the recent report, remarked that reversing nearly a decade of deteriorating performance in health services within five years presents substantial challenges.

The analysis concludes that meeting Starmer's pledge would not only require an increase in the number of patients treated but also a strategies to manage demand more effectively, prioritizing those who have waited the longest.

To achieve the 92% target, the NHS would need to augment the provision of planned care by 4.9% annually until 2029, a rate significantly higher than the 2.4% average increase recorded during the years 2016 to 2019, which saw a rise to 3.8% last year.

The IFS suggests that a more realistic annual increase would be around 3.5%.

Responding to these assessments, the Department of Health and Social Care acknowledged the difficulties in meeting the 92% performance goal but emphasized that it is committed to employing all available strategies to reach this objective.

The department has already initiated measures recommended by the IFS, including the establishment of community diagnostic centers and collaborations with private hospitals to treat NHS patients.

The DHSC stated that its plan for change has led to the delivery of two million more appointments, exceeding its target seven months early, and has successfully reduced waiting lists by 195,000 individuals thus far.

Sarah Scobie, deputy director of research at the Nuffield Trust, expressed skepticism regarding the feasibility of meeting the 18-week target by the end of the current parliament, characterizing this prospect as "vanishingly small." She highlighted the financial constraints that would complicate efforts to increase hospital activity, such as extended working hours and overtime.

In light of these challenges, the NHS is exploring alternative avenues for improving patient care, including the potential use of high street opticians to expedite treatment for individuals awaiting eye care.

According to Healthwatch England, this initiative could alleviate wait times for sight-related treatments, as a reported 70% of patients have noted a decline in their vision due to delays in receiving care.