London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Thursday, Dec 25, 2025

JPMorgan Says Hong Kong House Prices Could Slide 30% in Worst-Case Scenario

JPMorgan Says Hong Kong House Prices Could Slide 30% in Worst-Case Scenario

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has landed on six property stocks that can best weather the Hong Kong turmoil after applying a worst-case scenario that envisages home prices plunging 30%, retail sales falling by a similar amount and prime office rents sinking 40%.

While a worst-case scenario may seem a rather grim starting point, analysts at the New York-based investment bank said in a report earlier this week that’s what most investors are starting to factor in considering the uncertainties in the former British colony.

They include a re-escalation of the U.S.-China trade war and the social unrest in Hong Kong, both of which will impact upon the city’s status as an international financial center, JPMorgan said.

Against that backdrop, just six companies make JPMorgan’s overweight list -- CK Asset Holdings Ltd., Henderson Land Development Co., New World Development Co., Wharf Holdings Ltd., Hang Lung Properties Ltd. and Link REIT.

“The primary objective of our worst-case analysis is to identify stocks that are still good for investment even under this sort of scenario,” analysts led by Cusson Leung wrote, adding such assumptions weren’t their base case.

JPMorgan said CK Asset has been diversifying away from property in Hong Kong and China. Henderson Land, meanwhile, has done a good job ramping up asset disposals and “strong dividend growth will support strong share price performance.”

Wharf and Hang Lung have promising shopping malls after some tenant reshuffling, while New World, the only developer of the six with a residential angle, should see the most substantial increase in rents.

“We believe the only type of residential projects which are still selling well is the mass market product, of which New World will have a 3,000-unit to be launched in Tai Wai early 2020,” the Sept. 2 report said.

On the flip side, four stocks were downgraded to underweight, and two to neutral.


Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
UK Mortgage Rates Edge Lower as Bank of England Base Rate Cut Filters Through Lending Market
U.S. Supermarket Gives Customers Free Groceries for Christmas After Computer Glitch
Air India ‘Finds’ a Plane That Vanished 13 Years Ago
Caviar and Foie Gras? China Is Becoming a Luxury Food Powerhouse
Hong Kong Climbs to Second Globally in 2025 Tourism Rankings Behind Bangkok
From Sunniest Year on Record to Terror Plots and Sports Triumphs: The UK’s Defining Stories of 2025
Greta Thunberg Released on Bail After Arrest at London Pro-Palestinian Demonstration
Banksy Unveils New Winter Mural in London Amid Festive Season Excitement
UK Households Face Rising Financial Strain as Tax Increases Bite and Growth Loses Momentum
UK Government Approves Universal Studios Theme Park in Bedford Poised to Rival Disneyland Paris
UK Gambling Shares Slide as Traders Respond to Steep Tax Rises and Sector Uncertainty
Starmer and Trump Coordinate on Ukraine Peace Efforts in Latest Diplomatic Call
The Pilot Barricaded Himself in the Cockpit and Refused to Take Off: "We Are Not Leaving Until I Receive My Salary"
UK Fashion Label LK Bennett Pursues Accelerated Sale Amid Financial Struggles
U.S. Government Warns UK Over Free Speech in Pro-Life Campaigner Prosecution
Newly Released Files Shed Light on Jeffrey Epstein’s Extensive Links to the United Kingdom
Prince William and Prince George Volunteer Together at UK Homelessness Charity
UK Police Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’ as Authorities Recalibrate Free Speech Enforcement
Scambodia: The World Owes Thailand’s Military a Profound Debt of Gratitude
Women in Partial Nudity — and Bill Clinton in a Dress and Heels: The Images Revealed in the “Epstein Files”
US Envoy Witkoff to Convene Security Advisers from Ukraine, UK, France and Germany in Miami as Peace Efforts Intensify
UK Retailers Report Sharp Pre-Christmas Sales Decline and Weak Outlook, CBI Survey Shows
UK Government Rejects Use of Frozen Russian Assets to Fund Aid for Ukraine
UK Financial Conduct Authority Opens Formal Investigation into WH Smith After Accounting Errors
UK Issues Final Ultimatum to Roman Abramovich Over £2.5bn Chelsea Sale Funds for Ukraine
Rare Pink Fog Sweeps Across Parts of the UK as Met Office Warns of Poor Visibility
UK Police Pledge ‘More Assertive’ Enforcement to Tackle Antisemitism at Protests
UK Police Warn They Will Arrest Protesters Chanting ‘Globalise the Intifada’
Trump Files $10 Billion Defamation Lawsuit Against BBC as Broadcaster Pledges Legal Defence
UK Says U.S. Tech Deal Talks Still Active Despite Washington’s Suspension of Prosperity Pact
UK Mortgage Rules to Give Greater Flexibility to Borrowers With Irregular Incomes
UK Treasury Moves to Position Britain as Leading Global Hub for Crypto Firms
U.S. Freezes £31 Billion Tech Prosperity Deal With Britain Amid Trade Dispute
Prince Harry and Meghan’s Potential UK Return Gains New Momentum Amid Security Review and Royal Dialogue
Zelensky Opens High-Stakes Peace Talks in Berlin with Trump Envoy and European Leaders
Historical Reflections on Press Freedom Emerge Amid Debate Over Trump’s Media Policies
UK Boosts Protection for Jewish Communities After Sydney Hanukkah Attack
UK Government Declines to Comment After ICC Prosecutor Alleges Britain Threatened to Defund Court Over Israel Arrest Warrant
Apple Shutters All Retail Stores in the United Kingdom Under New National COVID-19 Lockdown
US–UK Technology Partnership Strains as Key Trade Disagreements Emerge
UK Police Confirm No Further Action Over Allegation That Andrew Asked Bodyguard to Investigate Virginia Giuffre
Giuffre Family Expresses Deep Disappointment as UK Police Decline New Inquiry Into Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor Claims
Transatlantic Trade Ambitions Hit a Snag as UK–US Deal Faces Emerging Challenges
Ex-ICC Prosecutor Alleges UK Threatened to Withdraw Funding Over Netanyahu Arrest Warrant Bid
UK Disciplinary Tribunal Clears Carter-Ruck Lawyer of Misconduct in OneCoin Case
‘Pink Ladies’ Emerge as Prominent Face of UK Anti-Immigration Protests
Nigel Farage Says Reform UK Has Become Britain’s Largest Party as Labour Membership Falls Sharply
Google DeepMind and UK Government Launch First Automated AI Lab to Accelerate Scientific Discovery
UK Economy Falters Ahead of Budget as Growth Contracts and Confidence Wanes
Australia Approves Increased Foreign Stake in Strategic Defence Shipbuilder
×