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Ipsos Poll Reveals Conservative Party's Deepening Struggles

The latest Ipsos MRP poll shows that the Conservative Party may face their worst general election defeat in modern history, with projections of winning just one hundred fifteen seats compared to Labour's four hundred fifty-three. Declining support is especially noted in the east and south of England and the Midlands, while Labour gains in Scotland and the north-east. Public dissatisfaction with key issues like the NHS, economy, cost of living, and immigration drives this trend, with the Conservative brand image more than halved since two thousand nineteen.
A recent Ipsos MRP poll indicates that the Conservative Party may be facing their worst general election defeat in modern history, securing only 115 seats compared to Labour's projected 453.

This contrasts with the 1997 election where Tony Blair’s Labour won 418 seats and John Major’s Conservatives 178.

The data was collected through a large-scale survey of nearly 20,000 people on Ipsos's online KnowledgePanel, using multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) for granular projections.

The geographic detail highlights declining support for Rishi Sunak’s party, especially in the east and south of England and the Midlands, while Labour gains in Scotland and the north-east.

The Conservative brand image has more than halved since 2019, with key issues such as the NHS, economy, cost of living, and immigration driving public dissatisfaction.

Polls and models are snapshots of current opinion, and while things can change, the Conservatives are currently in a challenging position.

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