Early-Release Scheme Faces Fresh Scrutiny as Reoffending and Prison Recalls Rise
Official figures show a record 31.9% proven reoffending rate for a 2024 offender cohort, while the government has paused planned changes to early release pending a safety review.
The government’s emergency early-release programme is facing renewed pressure after official figures showed that proven reoffending and prison recalls have both risen sharply, intensifying the struggle to keep England and Wales’s overcrowded prison system functioning.
Almost 70,000 offenders have been released early since the Labour government introduced its SDS40 scheme in September 2024. The measure permits eligible prisoners to leave custody after serving 40% of their sentence, rather than half, and was introduced after prisons approached capacity with fewer than 100 spare places.
New data show that 31.9% of adult offenders in the July-to-September 2024 cohort committed a further proven offence within the monitoring period, up from 29.2% for the preceding year.
Nearly 25,000 offenders committed more than 127,000 further offences.
The statistics cover a wider offender cohort and do not, by themselves, establish that the rise was caused by the early-release scheme.
The figures nonetheless sharpen concerns about the risks attached to releasing prisoners sooner.
Cases cited in the public debate include a man charged with murder after an earlier sentence for knife offences, and a 31-year-old man who sexually assaulted a woman on the day he was released.
Reoffending had been rising steadily from about 25% before the Covid pandemic.
For offenders released between June and September 2024, those who went on to reoffend committed an average of 21.2 offences each, the highest figure on record apart from the April-to-June 2020 cohort, whose proven reoffenders averaged 24.3 offences.
The prison system is also absorbing a growing number of recalls.
Between January and March 2026, 12,977 people were released from prison while 13,193 were recalled for breaching the terms of their licences.
That meant 101 recalls for every 100 releases.
Most recalls do not arise from a new conviction.
Common reasons include non-compliance with licence conditions, failure to remain in contact with probation officers and a further charge.
Annual recalls rose by 73% to 51,419 in 2025, from 37,573 in 2024, the highest recorded total and almost double the 27,820 recorded in 2023.
The government has warned that prisons could run out of places in November without further action.
It had intended to introduce an “earned progression” scheme in September, allowing some serious offenders to be released after serving half their sentence rather than two-thirds, unless their behaviour in custody disqualified them.
Lower-level offenders could have been released after serving as little as one third of their term rather than 40%.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has put those plans on hold after it emerged that two of the men convicted of the manslaughter of PC Andrew Harper could be eligible for automatic release halfway through their 13-year sentences.
He has ordered a review of who can safely be released early and what additional safeguards are needed for victims, and said no prisoner would be freed under the new policy before that work was complete.
David Gauke, the former Conservative justice secretary whose independent review recommended the earned-release model, said the pause risked creating expectations the government would struggle to meet.
“The reality is that there are no easy options on this matter and he has set expectations at a level that he will struggle to meet,” Gauke said.
“Burnham may come to regret announcing the pause before reaching any conclusions.”
He said that excluding every violent or sexual offender from earlier release would be incompatible with avoiding a capacity crisis, given the make-up of the prison population.
The Ministry of Justice said public protection remained its priority and defended the emergency action taken after years of limited capacity growth.
It said 3,200 prison places had already been delivered through the largest prison-building programme in more than a century, alongside a 700-million-pound investment in probation, tougher community punishment and victim services.
The safety review will determine whether the planned September changes proceed in altered form.
Almost 70,000 offenders have been released early since the Labour government introduced its SDS40 scheme in September 2024. The measure permits eligible prisoners to leave custody after serving 40% of their sentence, rather than half, and was introduced after prisons approached capacity with fewer than 100 spare places.
New data show that 31.9% of adult offenders in the July-to-September 2024 cohort committed a further proven offence within the monitoring period, up from 29.2% for the preceding year.
Nearly 25,000 offenders committed more than 127,000 further offences.
The statistics cover a wider offender cohort and do not, by themselves, establish that the rise was caused by the early-release scheme.
The figures nonetheless sharpen concerns about the risks attached to releasing prisoners sooner.
Cases cited in the public debate include a man charged with murder after an earlier sentence for knife offences, and a 31-year-old man who sexually assaulted a woman on the day he was released.
Reoffending had been rising steadily from about 25% before the Covid pandemic.
For offenders released between June and September 2024, those who went on to reoffend committed an average of 21.2 offences each, the highest figure on record apart from the April-to-June 2020 cohort, whose proven reoffenders averaged 24.3 offences.
The prison system is also absorbing a growing number of recalls.
Between January and March 2026, 12,977 people were released from prison while 13,193 were recalled for breaching the terms of their licences.
That meant 101 recalls for every 100 releases.
Most recalls do not arise from a new conviction.
Common reasons include non-compliance with licence conditions, failure to remain in contact with probation officers and a further charge.
Annual recalls rose by 73% to 51,419 in 2025, from 37,573 in 2024, the highest recorded total and almost double the 27,820 recorded in 2023.
The government has warned that prisons could run out of places in November without further action.
It had intended to introduce an “earned progression” scheme in September, allowing some serious offenders to be released after serving half their sentence rather than two-thirds, unless their behaviour in custody disqualified them.
Lower-level offenders could have been released after serving as little as one third of their term rather than 40%.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has put those plans on hold after it emerged that two of the men convicted of the manslaughter of PC Andrew Harper could be eligible for automatic release halfway through their 13-year sentences.
He has ordered a review of who can safely be released early and what additional safeguards are needed for victims, and said no prisoner would be freed under the new policy before that work was complete.
David Gauke, the former Conservative justice secretary whose independent review recommended the earned-release model, said the pause risked creating expectations the government would struggle to meet.
“The reality is that there are no easy options on this matter and he has set expectations at a level that he will struggle to meet,” Gauke said.
“Burnham may come to regret announcing the pause before reaching any conclusions.”
He said that excluding every violent or sexual offender from earlier release would be incompatible with avoiding a capacity crisis, given the make-up of the prison population.
The Ministry of Justice said public protection remained its priority and defended the emergency action taken after years of limited capacity growth.
It said 3,200 prison places had already been delivered through the largest prison-building programme in more than a century, alongside a 700-million-pound investment in probation, tougher community punishment and victim services.
The safety review will determine whether the planned September changes proceed in altered form.