Concerns over Trump's Potential Return Loom at WTO Summit
The potential return of Donald Trump as US President looms over the World Trade Organisation's crucial meeting, aiming to reform its three-decade-old dispute resolution system.
The summit in Abu Dhabi faces low expectations for success due to global geopolitical instability and US-China tensions.
Diplomats worry Trump's win could lead to the US exiting the WTO, recalling how he previously paralyzed its dispute function, obstructed leadership appointments, and instigated a trade war with China.
Though President Biden's tenure resolved some gridlock, allowing Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to become WTO director, the event may only highlight the need for a rules-based trade system rather than achieve significant reform.
Experts believe the WTO would struggle to defend against a more isolationist US under a second Trump term. The US focus on what it deems unfair Chinese competition leads to actions outside WTO rules, potentially harming all members, including the US.
The US political climate, with an upcoming election, also constrains its engagement at the WTO. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and her team aren't expected to make substantial compromises.
Nevertheless, reaching smaller agreements on issues like overfishing subsidies or food security could prevent the summit from being seen as a total failure.
Other powerhouse nations like India, facing its own elections, along with South Africa and China, maintain rigid stances within the WTO. Despite concerns, many, including WTO officials, see the US as remaining engaged and constructive within the organisation across various activities.
Diplomats worry Trump's win could lead to the US exiting the WTO, recalling how he previously paralyzed its dispute function, obstructed leadership appointments, and instigated a trade war with China.
Though President Biden's tenure resolved some gridlock, allowing Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to become WTO director, the event may only highlight the need for a rules-based trade system rather than achieve significant reform.
Experts believe the WTO would struggle to defend against a more isolationist US under a second Trump term. The US focus on what it deems unfair Chinese competition leads to actions outside WTO rules, potentially harming all members, including the US.
The US political climate, with an upcoming election, also constrains its engagement at the WTO. Trade Representative Katherine Tai and her team aren't expected to make substantial compromises.
Nevertheless, reaching smaller agreements on issues like overfishing subsidies or food security could prevent the summit from being seen as a total failure.
Other powerhouse nations like India, facing its own elections, along with South Africa and China, maintain rigid stances within the WTO. Despite concerns, many, including WTO officials, see the US as remaining engaged and constructive within the organisation across various activities.
