Researchers have found that climate change has led to extended periods of damaging temperatures for crops in West Africa, a region that accounts for roughly 70 percent of global cacao production.

This has negatively impacted harvests and is expected to lead to further increases in cocoa prices, according to a report released by the independent research organization Climate Central.

In recent years, farmers in major cacao-producing nations such as Ivory Coast, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria have encountered difficulties due to escalating heat, diseases, and unusual rainfall patterns, which have contributed to declining production.

The report suggests that climate change, primarily due to the burning of fossil fuels like oil, coal, and methane, is causing more frequent high temperatures in Ivory Coast and Ghana— the top cacao producers in the world.

Using observational data from 44 cacao-producing regions throughout West Africa alongside computer modeling, the researchers compared current temperature records to a hypothetical scenario without the impacts of climate change.

They evaluated how often temperatures exceeded 32 degrees Celsius (89.6 degrees Fahrenheit), which is harmful for cacao tree growth.

Over the last decade, the findings indicated that climate change has resulted in an increase of about three weeks in the number of weeks with temperatures above 32C in Ivory Coast and Ghana during the vital growing season from October to March.

Last year, noted as the hottest year on record globally, temperatures surpassed 32C for at least 42 days across two-thirds of the examined areas.

Researchers voiced concerns that extreme heat might affect both the quantity and quality of cacao yields.

In addition to climate-related issues, the study called attention to challenges such as infestations of mealybugs, shifting rainfall patterns, and socio-economic problems like smuggling and illegal mining, which complicate the production scenario.

On the same day that Climate Central released its report, Christian Aid published its own findings highlighting the vulnerabilities faced by cacao and chocolate farmers due to weather changes linked to climate.

The organization pointed out that West African weather has fluctuated between extreme rainfall causing crop damage during the dry season of 2023 and drought conditions expected in 2024.

Osai Ojigho, director of policy and public campaigns at Christian Aid, noted that cocoa farming is a vital source of income for many of the world's poorest individuals, which is being critically endangered by climate change intensified by human actions.

Following failed harvests, cocoa prices have surged significantly in commodity markets in London and New York since late 2023. Current prices in New York have surpassed $10,000 per tonne, down from a peak of over $12,500 in mid-December.

Historically, New York cocoa prices have varied between $2,000 and $3,000 per tonne for several decades.

In light of rising cocoa prices, Swiss chocolate maker Lindt & Spruengli has announced plans to increase prices further in 2024.

Narcisa Pricope, a professor at Mississippi State University, characterized the situation as an 'existential threat' to cacao crops, primarily due to increasingly dry conditions in cacao-growing areas.

She contributed to a recent study by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, which found that over 75 percent of the Earth's landmass has shown drying trends over the past three decades.

Pricope emphasized that while greenhouse gas emissions are the main driver of this aridity, unsustainable land use and degradation also significantly contribute.

Pricope underscored that efforts to address desertification and dryness involve more than just preserving chocolate; they are essential for sustaining the planet's ability to support all forms of life.