London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Tuesday, Jul 21, 2026

Asylum seekers: Will this migrant bill become a reality?

Asylum seekers: Will this migrant bill become a reality?

Suella Braverman told MPs that the government's new plan to stop small boats was "novel" - but the most important words are on the front page of this enormously dense document.

Every bill that is presented to Parliament - big or small - comes with a statement assuring MPs and Peers that the plans respect the UK's human rights rules.

But this time, the home secretary has admitted the plans may not be compatible with the European Convention on Human Rights and could therefore fall at the first hurdle.

Yet this is not deemed a reason for the government to pause - in fact, Ms Braverman and the prime minister say this legislation is necessary to "stop the boats".


Haven't we been here before?


In political terms, yes. This is the second major piece of immigration legislation from this government in two years. Former Home Secretary Priti Patel's bill promised to stop the small boats, partly through creating a rule that anyone arriving from a safe country - basically meaning France - would not have their case considered at all.

It also criminalised unauthorised arrival on our shores - a move that has been recently upheld by senior judges as lawful, even if the individuals are seeking protection.

But those people have not been removed from the UK. Critics say that this emboldens smugglers to convince clients that if they can make it over the English Channel, there's every chance they won't get removed.

So this new plan goes much further. It denies most people arriving from France or another safe country the right to make an asylum claim - even if they may have a case to do so - and places a duty on the home secretary to remove them as quickly as possible. That is an enormous toughening up of the rules - and is just one of the reasons why critics say it breaks the UK's international obligations to treat potential refugees fairly.

Not so, say ministers. The UK takes more than it's fair share, they argue. Almost 60,000 Afghans, Syrians and others have come on official schemes in recent years and 220,000 Ukrainians have been given entry visas since February 2022.

What's not remotely clear is whether the plan will have any impact on smugglers. The evidence gathered by my colleagues in France suggests not. Migrants tend not to know what awaits them in the UK.


Is it practically deliverable ?


Assuming the plan makes it through Parliament, there are questions over whether it will work in practice.

Border Force officers will have a new power to detain almost everyone who cross the English Channel for at least 28 days while the home secretary and her team book them onto flights out of the UK.

But where are these people going to be held? Last year's 45,000 arrivals are equivalent to half of the UK's prison capacity. Holding someone in a secure unit is far more expensive than placing them in a house, flat or hotel room. Prison is famously more expensive than some of the UK's top private schools.

Ministers say they don't expect to be holding anywhere near that number at any one time - but last August almost 9,000 migrants arrived in that month alone. Can the Home Office set up that many secure units before this summer? When the prime minister was asked on Tuesday night where these people would be put, he didn't say.

By the end of those 28 days, ministers say they would want to remove those people to a safe country - but there are few returns agreements in place and no deal at all with the EU since Brexit.

People who are still in detention after 28 days will be able to launch challenges before immigration tribunals arguing that they are being unlawfully held.

This prospect will alarm judges. The current backlog of unresolved immigration cases is just shy of 29,000 with a 46-week wait for a decision.

What about Rwanda? Well that plan is mired in the Court of Appeal. It could take months to rule on whether it's lawful - and then the case will almost certainly go the Supreme Court. It may not rule before 2024.



Is this actually legal?


Throughout the plan the wording aims to limit rights to appeal and to make it harder for arriving migrants to make a claim to stay on.

Supporters say this brings much needed common sense to a system that has too many rights of appeal and delays to allowing ministers to act for the public.

But none of that can do away with the simple fact that the home secretary herself does not know if this plan can succeed. In a letter to MPs, she simultaneously says she believes the plan is workable but it has more than a 50% chance of failing in the courts.

What this means in practice is that her own lawyers have told her it could be torn to shreds if it is challenged as unfair and inhumane.

It is exceptionally rare for a minister to introduce a bill while admitting this possibility. And that in turn would leave MPs asking why they should vote for it in the first place.

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Miliband Sets Climate and International Law at Centre of UK Diplomacy
US Gasoline Returns to $4 as Renewed Iran Fighting Disrupts Oil Flows
Czech Central Bank Governor Rejects Early Euro Entry and Rate-Cut Pressure
Trump Orders 50% Tariffs on Selected Canadian Imports
Pentagon Discloses Nearly 100 US Troop Injuries During Renewed Iran Fighting
Trump Readies New Tariffs as Temporary Global Levy Nears Expiry
US Judge Pauses Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros Discovery Merger Over Antitrust Concerns
NHS England Faces Growing Retention Pressure Among Younger Midwives
UK Data Centre Expansion Faces Water and Grid Capacity Challenges
UK Defence Shares Rise After John Healey Appointment and Continued Spending Commitments
OECD Urges UK Government to Review Pension Triple Lock to Protect Public Finances
Bank of England Keeps Cautious Approach as Energy Costs Threaten Inflation Progress
County Councils Call for Wider Devolution and Long-Term Social Care Funding Reform
IMF Urges UK Government to Maintain Fiscal Discipline as Growth Forecast Slows
Russian Warship Holds Live-Fire Exercises Near UK Coast as Royal Navy Monitors Activity
Mitie Agrees Three Point One Billion Pound Takeover by OCS in Another Blow to London Listings
JPMorgan Chase Warns Bank Levies Could Hit UK Growth and Drive Capital Away
UK Unemployment Holds at Four Point Nine Percent as Labour Market Shows Resilience
UK Government Borrowing Falls Below Forecasts as Treasury Receives Early Fiscal Boost
John Healey Cuts VAT on Household Electricity Bills After Cancelling National Digital ID Scheme
Andy Burnham Forms New Labour Government With Ten-Year National Renewal Plan
EU Imposes Record €550 Million Digital Services Fine on AliExpress
UK Publishes Updated Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions Data
English Regions Prepare for Expanded Devolution and Infrastructure Powers
Russell Group Backs New Government and Calls for Stronger University-Industry Links
Bank of England Maintains Restrictive Monetary Policy Amid Persistent Inflation
Climate Progress Report Renews Debate Over the UK's Net Zero Strategy
New UK Government Launches Drive to End Rough Sleeping and Expand Social Housing
Prime Minister Andy Burnham Appoints John Healey as Chancellor in Cabinet Reshuffle
OECD Calls for Structural Reforms as UK Economy Faces Slower Growth
International Monetary Fund Expects UK Economic Growth to Slow to One Percent in 2026
Andy Burnham Takes Office as UK Prime Minister and Unveils Decade-Long Reform Agenda
London’s Housing Starts Collapse as Planning and Building Costs Stall Development
Charlie Sheen’s Daughter: "My Dad Didn’t Buy Me a House, My Breasts Bought It"
Vivienne Westwood Casts Cicciolina, 74, in Its New Autumn Campaign
Dejavu: Germany’s Military Expansion Reshapes Europe’s Strategic Balance With France
Naturally Conceived Identical Quadruplets Born in Rare Brisbane Delivery
Tate Brothers Fight British Extradition Bid After Miami Arrests
Burnham Reshapes Britain’s Government Around Living Costs, Devolution and Security
Jingye Demands Full Compensation After Britain illegally Nationalized British Steel
Just Another Liar or a Robin Hood? Andy Burnham Pledges Cost-of-Living Help in First Speech as UK Prime Minister
Morgan Stanley Builds a Wall Street Lead in AI Infrastructure Finance
High Prices Push Coffee Drinkers Toward Whole Beans and Home Brewing
Trump Draws Boos and Podium Scrutiny at Spain’s World Cup Triumph
Brilliant move: Péter Magyar Moves to Nominate Chess Grandmaster Judit Polgár as Hungary’s President
Spain Defeats Argentina in Extra Time to Win Second World Cup
Police Block Cockroach Janta Party’s March to Parliament as Education Protests Intensify
Current AI Seeks to Build an Open Global AI Infrastructure Outside Big Tech Control
Turkey Explores S-400 Transfer to UAE in Bid to Rejoin F-35 Program
Josh Kerr Breaks Twenty-Seven-Year World Mile Record at London Diamond League
×