London Daily

Focus on the big picture.
Monday, Oct 06, 2025

Airlines will struggle long after passengers feel safe to fly again

Airlines will struggle long after passengers feel safe to fly again

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused the worst financial crisis in the history of the airline industry. But when the health crisis is over, airlines' financial problems will probably continue for years.

History has shown clearly that it takes a tremendous amount of time for passenger traffic to recover after a recession.

recently, it took a whopping five years after Great Recession ended in 2009 for passenger traffic to recover, according to Philip Baggaley, the chief credit analyst for airlines at Standard & Poors. Even after the relatively mild 2000 recession caused by the bursting of the dot-com bubble, it took until 2004 for US air passenger traffic to again reach its pre-recession peak.

"Recessions are tough for the industry. Airlines are dependent on economic growth," said Baggaley.

Beyond the years it takes for overall air travel to recover after a recession, historically it takes even longer for a return of business travel, which is the most lucrative sector for airlines -- one most of them depend upon.

That's one part of what makes this recession particularly chilling for airlines. On an overall scale the pandemic has caused widespread economic pain, with millions losing their jobs and burning through savings that they might otherwise have used for discretionary spending like vacations.

But when it comes to that all-important business travel, the situation is arguably worse.

Many companies have fewer employees on payrolls with a need to travel. Most will also be trying to recoup losses or pay down debt caused by the pandemic -- and trimming travel by skipping conferences and meeting with clients virtually is likely to be a cost-cutting measure. And, of course, there are many companies that have gone out of business altogether during the crisis.

"Business travel typically falls farther and takes longer to recover," said Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics.

Sacks thinks next year's travel will still be significantly affected by the pandemic itself. But he said he believes that in "2022, we're dealing with picking up the pieces from the economy that has been damaged."

"In this case, I think four years [after 2021] is what we're looking at to get leisure travel back to pre-pandemic levels. Businesses will take at least an extra year," he added.

There is no blueprint for a crisis like this. The last pandemic on this global scale was more than 100 years ago in 1918, before the age of commercial air travel.

More recent pandemics -- such as the SARS crisis in 2003, which badly damaged air travel to and from Asia, particularly Hong Kong -- did not cause a global recession. The SARS pandemic was over relatively quickly, and the impact on air travel ended only six months later, Sacks said, as people felt safe flying again.

What airline executives are saying


In this pandemic, US airlines collectively lost $12 billion in the second quarter. So far for the third quarter the five largest carriers -- American (AAL), United (UAL), Delta, Southwest and Alaska Air (ALK), have already reported losses of $8.9 billion excluding special items like $25 billion in federal assistance for the industry overall.

And airline executives have been blunt about their expectations for a slow, painful recovery.

"We have to assume that business travel will be lighter for a long time," said Southwest (LUV) CEO Gary Kelly in an interview on CNBC last week.

He cited examples of business travel taking five years to recover from past recessions, adding, "you've got to believe that will be at least the case now. I've said it may be 10 years before business travel recovers."

The airlines are also concerned about a permanent hit to business travel given growing use of video services, although they say they believe the shift to virtual meetings will be limited.

"I'm of the view that it will have some impact, but it's not going to be a substitute," said Delta (DAL) CEO Ed Bastian when speaking with investors earlier this month. "I don't think anybody knows. My sense is that we could be looking at anywhere from 10% to 20% reduction in the next couple of years when we get to that new normal of business travel."

Most of the financial damage to the airlines so far has been because of a combination of shutdown orders limiting nonessential flying, quarantine rules for travelers and border closings. Travel through US airport checkpoints since March is down 75%.

While those losses may not be repeated -- especially if the vaccines and treatments help to beat back the pandemic sometime next year -- they still have left an industry that went into the crisis in relatively strong financial shape with much weaker balance sheets. All have taken on massive levels of debt to ride out this downturn.

And they've all cut their staff -- through voluntary buyouts and in many cases involuntary layoffs and furloughs -- to reduce costs. If even a modest level of traffic returns next year with an end to the pandemic, the losses could end by the middle of 2021. But that doesn't mean they'll be in good financial shape.

"The airlines may be able to break even again or make modest amounts of money," said Baggaley. "But even if they're able to make money at this lower passenger levels, profitability won't return to previous levels any time soon."

Newsletter

Related Articles

0:00
0:00
Close
Three Scientists Awarded Nobel Prize in Medicine for Discovery of Immune Self-Tolerance Mechanism
OpenAI and AMD Forge Landmark AI-Chip Alliance with Equity Option
Munich Airport Reopens After Second Drone Shutdown
France Names New Government Amid Political Crisis
Trump Stands Firm in Shutdown Showdown and Declares War on Drug Cartels — Turning Crisis into Opportunity
Surge of U.S. Billionaires Transforms London’s Peninsula Apartments into Ultra-Luxury Stronghold
Pro Europe and Anti-War Babiš Poised to Return to Power After Czech Parliamentary Vote
Jeff Bezos Calls AI Surge a ‘Good’ Bubble, Urges Focus on Lasting Innovation
Japan’s Ruling Party Chooses Sanae Takaichi, Clearing Path to First Female Prime Minister
Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs Sentenced to Fifty Months in Prison Following Prostitution Conviction
Taylor Swift’s ‘Showgirl’ Launch Extends Billion-Dollar Empire
Trump Administration Launches “TrumpRx” Plan to Enable Direct Drug Sales at Deep Discounts
Trump Announces Intention to Impose 100 Percent Tariff on Foreign-Made Films
Altman Says GPT-5 Already Outpaces Him, Warns AI Could Automate 40% of Work
Singapore and Hong Kong Vie to Dominate Asia’s Rising Gold Trade
Trump Organization Teams with Saudi Developer on $1 Billion Trump Plaza in Jeddah
Manhattan Sees Surge in Office-to-Housing Conversions, Highest Since 2008
Switzerland and U.S. Issue Joint Assurance Against Currency Manipulation
Electronic Arts to Be Taken Private in Historic $55 Billion Buyout
Thomas Jacob Sanford Named as Suspect in Deadly Michigan Church Shooting and Arson
Russian Research Vessel 'Yantar' Tracked Mapping Europe’s Subsea Cables, Raising Security Alarms
New York Man Arrested After On-Air Confession to 2017 Parents’ Murders
U.S. Defense Chief Orders Sudden Summit of Hundreds of Generals and Admirals
Global Cruise Industry Posts Dramatic Comeback with 34.6 Million Passengers in 2024
Trump Claims FBI Planted 274 Agents at Capitol Riot, Citing Unverified Reports
India: Internet Suspended in Bareilly Amid Communal Clashes Between Muslims and Hindus
Supreme Court Extends Freeze on Nearly $5 Billion in U.S. Foreign Aid at Trump’s Request
Archaeologists Recover Statues and Temples from 2,000-Year-Old Sunken City off Alexandria
China Deploys 2,000 Workers to Spain to Build Major EV Battery Factory, Raising European Dependence
Speed Takes Over: How Drive-Through Coffee Chains Are Rewriting U.S. Coffee Culture
U.S. Demands Brussels Scrutinize Digital Rules to Prevent Bias Against American Tech
Ringo Starr Champions Enduring Beatles Legacy While Debuting Las Vegas Art Show
Private Equity’s Fundraising Surge Triggers Concern of European Market Shake-Out
Colombian President Petro Vows to Mobilize Volunteers for Gaza and Joins List of Fighters
FBI Removes Agents Who Kneeled at 2020 Protest, Citing Breach of Professional Conduct
Trump Alleges ‘Triple Sabotage’ at United Nations After Escalator and Teleprompter Failures
Shock in France: 5 Years in Prison for Former President Nicolas Sarkozy
Tokyo’s Jimbōchō Named World’s Coolest Neighbourhood for 2025
European Officials Fear Trump May Shift Blame for Ukraine War onto EU
BNP Paribas Abandons Ban on 'Controversial Weapons' Financing Amid Europe’s Defence Push
Typhoon Ragasa Leaves Trail of Destruction Across East Asia Before Making Landfall in China
The Personality Rights Challenge in India’s AI Era
Big Banks Rebuild in Hong Kong as Deal Volume Surges
Italy Considers Freezing Retirement Age at 67 to Avert Scheduled Hike
Italian City to Impose Tax on Visiting Dogs Starting in 2026
Arnault Denounces Proposed Wealth Tax as Threat to French Economy
Study Finds No Safe Level of Alcohol for Dementia Risk
Denmark Investigates Drone Incursion, Does Not Rule Out Russian Involvement
Lilly CEO Warns UK Is ‘Worst Country in Europe’ for Drug Prices, Pulls Back Investment
Nigel Farage Emerges as Central Force in British Politics with Reform UK Surge
×